Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, August 13th, 2025
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 08/13/2025 10:06 AM EDT
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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Lingering moisture from this week's upper-level disturbance over the northern gulf will continue to create scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms for the Panhandle today (70-90% chance of rain).
- Scattered showers have already begun moving onshore along the Panhandle and Big Bend, and will continue to do so while becoming more widespread throughout the afternoon and evening.
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the Panhandle as repeated rounds of rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding and ponding of water.
- Rainfall totals of 1-2" can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-4" with repeated rounds of heavy downpours.
- High pressure over the Florida Peninsula will give way to scattered showers and thunderstorms and thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze this afternoon and evening (30-60% chance of rain).
- Slightly drier air filtering in will keep thunderstorms limited in some places, like the Southeast Florida coast and Keys, this afternoon.
- Warm and muggy conditions can be expected with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s to middle 90s and heat index values returning to triple digits nearly statewide.
- Dangerously hot and humid conditions will develop along the US-301 corridor and eastward as heat index values of 106-110-degrees can be expected, and a Heat Advisory will go into effect near midday.
- Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate throughout the evening and overnight hours before beginning to drift back onshore this morning along coastlines near sunrise Thursday morning (15-30% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain in the middle 70s to lower 80s across the state.
- A high risk for rip currents can be expected for all Panhandle beaches, while a moderate risk for rip currents expands along the East Coast.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Tropical Storm Erin - As of 5:00 AM EDT, Erin remains a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and higher gusts. Erin is located about 1400 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands and moving westward at 20 mph. This general motion is expected into Thursday, with a west-northwestward motion beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend. On the forecast track, Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin today, and Erin will likely become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday. Erin poses no direct threat to Florida at this time, but continues to be monitored.
- Southwestern Gulf - A tropical wave near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning. There is a low (10%) chance for development through the next 48 hours and low (20%) chance for development through the next 7 days. This system poses no threat to Florida.
- Northwestern Atlantic - A non-tropical areas of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada is still producing showers and thunderstorms. Formation chances have decreased to near 0%, and this system poses no threat to Florida.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.