Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, June 12th, 2024

Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 06/12/2024 10:13 AM EDT

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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2 
Meteorological Summary:
  • Another wet and active weather day can be expected across the Peninsula due to persistent flow of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.
  • Tropical moisture will push northward into Northeast Florida and the northern Peninsula, allowing for scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms throughout the day (60-near 100% chance of rain).
  • The greatest coverage for showers and thunderstorms will be south of the I-4 corridor, especially along the western Peninsula where activity pushes inland from the gulf waters.
  • Shower and thunderstorm coverage will fluctuate at times, but the greatest coverage and extent of activity throughout the afternoon and evening hours can be expected due to daytime heating processes.
  • Favorable conditions during the peak heating hours of the day will give way to heavy rainfall rates, torrential downpours, and a few strong thunderstorms capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds (40-50 mph).
  • Computer model guidance continues to show inconsistencies with location, timing, and intensity of stronger bands of rainfall that could produce heavy rainfall rates leading to localized flooding.
  • The Flood Watch has been extended along portions of West-Central and throughout South Florida through late Thursday evening due to the potential for additional heavy rainfall that could lead to instances of localized flooding at times.
  • The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is maintaining a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding from the I-4 corridor through the Peninsula, and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) through the northern Peninsula.
  • Heat index values will remain in the upper 90s to low 100s this afternoon across the Big Bend and towards the I-4 corridor, as well as across the southern Peninsula and Keys due to muggy conditions.
  • Breezy onshore winds and elevated surf of 2-4’ will create a moderate to high risk for rip currents nearly statewide.
  • Invest 90L: An elongated area of low pressure over the Florida Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and some slow development is possible while the system moves northeastward offshore of the U.S. Southeast Coast tonight and through the weekend. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across portions of the Florida Peninsula during the next few days.
  • A broad area of low pressure could form over the weekend across the southern Gulf of Mexico, and environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some slow development early next week as the system slowly moves westward to west-northwestward. This system poses no threat to Florida.

 To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

Morning Situation Report