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CARB will hold a seminar outlining results on a recent contract on “Low-Carbon Transportation Incentive Strategies Using Performance Evaluation Tools for Heavy-Duty Trucks and Off-Road Equipment.” The research team from the University of California, Irvine, University of California, Los Angeles, University of California, Riverside, and the University of Arkansas will present the findings, followed by a question and answer period where participants will be able to ask questions. The research team conducted an analysis of existing market survey and real-world operation data of heavy-duty fleets and off-road equipment (ORE) participating in incentive programs. The project’s main objective was to identify potential policy and incentive strategies that promote greater adoption of low-carbon transportation (LCT) technologies (zero and near-zero carbon and pollutant emissions) in the heavy-duty and off-road sectors.
Date: June 7, 2024
Time: 2:00 p.m. – 3:30 p.m.
Location: Zoom Webinar
Background
The transportation sector is California’s largest emitter of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) and off-road equipment (ORE) has become the largest source of NOx emissions statewide. To meet federal health-based air quality standards and California climate change goals, including carbon neutrality by 2045, medium and heavy-duty trucks and ORE operating in California must transition to low-NOx emission technologies coupled with advanced renewable fuels and to zero-emission vehicles where possible. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has various policies aimed at reducing GHG emissions as well as toxic air pollutant emissions, including regulatory programs aimed at reducing GHG emissions as well as toxic air pollutant emissions of both on-road heavy-duty trucks and off-road equipment. CARB also has incentive programs to promote clean technology uptake and nudge markets toward full-scale technology transformation by bringing capital costs and the total cost of ownership for clean technologies into line with equivalent costs for conventional technologies. Investment in incentives can significantly impact market behavior, environmental and health outcomes, and the broader economy. The aim of this project is to better understand the impact that incentives have on market behavior and to create a tool that CARB staff can use to design more effective incentive programs that will facilitate the transition to LCT in HDVs and ORE. The objectives of this research project are to identify potential policy and incentive strategies that promote greater adoption of low-carbon transportation (LCT) technologies (zero and near-zero carbon and pollutant emissions) in the heavy-duty and off-road sectors.
Project Summary
The research team explored six different research methods to fulfill the project objectives.
Incentive Program Synthesis
The research team synthesized current incentive program data and explored their effect on low-carbon transportation technology uptake among heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) and off-road equipment (ORE).
Market Analysis
The research team identified existing and developing low-carbon technology and its applicability to heavy-duty on-road and off-road equipment applications, selecting the most important sectors to evaluate in more depth based upon their potential to reduce emissions and forecasting technology and fuel costs out to 2050 for conservative, moderate, and aggressive market scenarios. They improved and expanded their Transportation Rollout Affective Cost and Emissions (TRACE) model to project fuel and vehicle costs for use in this research project.
Transition to Low-Carbon Technologies
The research team explored the technical and behavioral factors governing the transition to low-carbon transportation through an analysis of existing literature and results from structured interviews conducted with heavy-duty and off-road equipment fleets in California.
Performance Evaluation Tool
The research team developed an incentive program performance evaluation tool (PET) that employs a total cost of ownership (TCO)-driven technology choice model to the evolution of fuel technologies in the fleet over time to quantify the emissions reductions, and ancillary benefits and cost-effectiveness of low-carbon transportation incentive program designs targeting specific drayage, linehaul, and construction fleets of different sizes.
Incentive Program Forecasts and Recommendations
Using this tool, the research team made recommendations on incentive strategies by vehicle and vocation types for the sectors in which shifting to LCT will have the most impact toward meeting the State’s emissions goals, forecasting low-carbon transportation technologies’ attainment of cost parity or market acceptance relative to conventional technologies.
Biography
The Principal Investigator, Professor Stephen Ritchie serves as Director of the Institute of Transportation Studies and as a Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering at the University of California, Irvine. He has over 40 years’ experience in engineering education and research, and interdisciplinary research management. His research interests focus on intelligent and sustainable transportation systems planning and engineering, emphasizing emerging technology research, development and field deployment in support of decarbonization policies for the nation’s freight transportation system. He currently leads the ITS-Irvine Freight Mobility Living Laboratory initiative, with the support of multiple state and federal agencies. He received his Ph.D. degree in civil engineering-transportation from Cornell University, and is a recipient of the National Science Foundation Presidential Young Investigator Award, the Pyke Johnson Outstanding Paper Award from the Transportation Research Board, “Best of ITS” Research Award from ITS America, the Frank M. Masters Transportation Engineering Award from ASCE, and several Best Paper Awards from TRB Freight and Logistics Committees. Professor Ritchie has co-authored over 200 peer-reviewed articles in transportation journals and conference proceedings, and his extensive professional service includes Founding Editor-in-Chief of the international journal Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technology.
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