Judge Ahmad
I’m going to open with this because Fed Ex deserves the notoriety. Their failure has placed Judge Ahmad’s wife and 2-year-old daughter in potential mortal danger.
Below I’ll mention a bit about Africa. Some parts of it are 3rd world in terms of infrastructure and governance. This whole episode of trying to reunite Ahmad and his family has exposed some very similar conditions in the U.S. For example, I had the Arizona Secretary of State Fed Ex a piece of paper to me from Phoenix. Look at the route it has taken to get those 100 miles. They sent it from Phoenix to Tempe, back to Phoenix, back to Tempe, back to Phoenix again and then down to Tucson. It was supposed to be here by 4:30 on Thursday. Then it was 4:30 on Friday. Then 8pm on Friday. And on Saturday they had “no delivery information available.” Their motto is they’ll “make every Fed Ex experience outstanding.” If you call their customer service line, good luck getting someone who has a firm grasp of English. And be aware that you will not be speaking to somebody in Tucson – or in Arizona, or likely anywhere in the U.S. I know that, because the excuse the 4th person I spoke to give me on Saturday (3 days late) was Weather Conditions. I said “bro, you’re not in Tucson, are you? It’s 70 degrees and sunny. It has been that way all week” and I can tell you that it only went downhill from there. It continued going downhill when I spoke with them again twice on Sunday. They confirmed the letter was sitting on a truck in their yard. I offered to pick it up and save them the hassle. Nope – for no particular good reason that wouldn’t work for them.
Their local delivery hub doesn’t take calls on the weekend. Check out their own tracking record. Start from the bottom and watch the cities this letter went to.
I’ve run 4 races of 100 miles or longer, each in under 24 hours. I ran across Colorado, from the New Mexico border to the Wyoming border in less time than Fed Ex has taken to deliver 1 piece of paper from Phoenix to Tucson. I could have jogged to Phoenix in less time than it took Fed Ex to deliver the paper. Oh, the piece of paper I was waiting on is a form needed to get the Turkish government to extend the residency permit for Ahmad’s wife and daughter. Without it, they can be deported back to Afghanistan – or any travel within Turkey will be burdened with bribes and corruption. Thank you, Fed Ex., The experience wasn’t ‘outstanding’, but it does stand out as something to share with others.
Another example – the United States Citizenship and Immigration Service (USCIS) is where refugees go to apply for entry to the U.S. In October Ahmad’s family applied and requested a fee waiver. It would cost his wife and their 2-year-old daughter $1,150 just to apply – no guarantee of approval. They’re refugees from Afghanistan. The fee waiver was rejected. So, I reapplied at the end of last year and included a credit card copy for them to charge. That package was returned for ‘insufficient funds.’ One of the congressional aides I’ve been working with was later told that the fee had been waived and the application was being processed, but I have the full application package and their denial letter in my possession.
Another example - the USCIS told his wife that their child’s 1 page birth certificate that is printed in Turkish had to be translated into English before they’d review the full package. Nobody in the State Department can do that? Google translates? His wife is a high profile target every time she goes out into public. She got it translated and thankfully made it home without involvement from Taliban.
On Sunday afternoon I heard her on the phone speaking to Ahmad. He was trying in vain to explain the Fed Ex incompetence. She was in tears. If the package is delivered on Monday our time, it will be after close of business in Turkey due to the 10-hour time difference.
I told Ahmad that I cannot explain why our system is so messed up and why simple things like mailing a letter comes with issues. Afghanistan isn’t a developed country – he's likely wondering the same about us.
Time Magazine came down and did a very nice job covering both Ahmad’s story and the Afghan/refugee process generally. Here’s a link to the piece. It’s an eye-opening exposure of how the thousands of refugees from Afghanistan are in harm's way, and how our system is bluntly unresponsive.
I’ve been in contact multiple times with 2 congressional offices, one senator’s office, one senator, the State Department, USCIS, the UNHCR, International Refugee Assistance Project and others. The needle has not moved past me being told Ahmad’s wife and child are ‘on a family reunification list.’ What that means in terms of timing and process is anybody’s guess.
Axios is a news service that covers both national and international stories. You can find them at www.axios.com. Last week they had a review of Biden’s plans to “accelerate bringing potentially thousands of Afghans to the U.S. from Qatar.” The plan acknowledges that they’re still struggling with the aftereffects of the chaos we witnessed during the Kabul evacuation. As is true in Ahmad’s case, many of the families that are divided and/or still stuck were people who assisted the U.S. in the Afghan war.
The administration set a goal of clearing the first wave of over 70,000 Afghan refugees off from our military bases by mid-February. The notion that the federal government is ‘resettling’ refugees is false. Local jurisdictions and non-governmental resettlement agencies are doing that heavy lifting. The feds are simply assigning families to a particular city, delivering them and leaving. The new expedited process is said to have all Afghans to be screened and approved for refugee status and sent to the U.S. within 30 days of arriving at Qatar. The problem is that nearly none of them are in Qatar. A detail I suppose State is still trying to figure out.
I won’t go into all the immigration status’ people arrive with except to say that the most common for this refugee group is called Humanitarian Parole. All it does is provide protection from deportation and gives the ability to work for 2 years. During that time refugees must sort through a status change system that is financially costly and takes months, if not years to complete. Few if any will get through it. We’re setting people up to fail.
If we gave refugees ‘refugee status’ upon arrival we’d bypass much of the bureaucratic mess we’re sending people into. But giving refugees refugee status makes too much sense, and it takes somebody in the administration to affirmatively hire the personnel needed to process the applications. Biden has the Obama Syrian refugee crisis to work from. In that case over 10,000 refugees were processed in less than 12 weeks. Ahmad has been here longer than that and we still don’t have a U.S. agency even beginning to process the applications we’ve submitted. The system is backlogged with thousands of cases. The Special Immigrant Visa process has over 18,000 cases backlogged. The asylum process has over 1 million cases backlogged.
There’s an Afghan Adjustment Act pending in Congress. It’s supposed to allow for qualified Afghans to apply for permanent status after having been here for a year. It does nothing for reuniting the families that are separated or bringing Afghans or other refugees out of the immediate danger they’re in due to Taliban rule.
I’m grateful to Time for covering the issue. Without media coverage, the bureaucracy and congress can hide from the issue.
Tree Butchering - again
I’ve travelled to and done work in Africa 4 times. If you ever have the opportunity, one of the things you’ll enjoy is the unique trees and other foliage. This is one example of trees that have evolved such that only their upper canopy is alive with greenery. They’re picturesque.
Four years ago, I asked for a study session intended to address the city’s disjointed approach to landscape maintenance. We had at least 5 different departments, private contractors and neighborhood groups all out ‘trimming’ city trees and other landscape. Most of them didn’t have any arborist credentials. The result was calls on a very regular basis from residents who were horrified at seeing the trees in their neighborhood being butchered. Fast forward to today.
Here’s an image of a 23-year-old specimen located in midtown. It used to have growth all the way down below the face of the sign you see in the photo. Now you can see the nubs where one of the city contractors recently took great pains to make it look like an African tree. He did a pretty good job – but not all of us appreciate the ‘look.’
The city has hired several new staff members whose job it is to monitor our landscape maintenance program. Sadly, we still have departments who haven’t gotten the memo. Any tree trimming or landscape work must be cycled through our landscape points of contact. An asphalt company does not exist to trim trees any more than an arborist lays asphalt. I know from very recent conversations with the city manager that the message has yet again been reiterated. I’m hopeful to see changes in our procurement contracts that impose financial penalties on contractors who free wheel it for their own convenience and ruin trees anywhere in the city.
Rent Control
Last week Carol Ann Alaimo from the Star did a very nice piece about a guy from California whose mission in life is to get rich, at all costs. He invests in property that needs a face lift, gives it one, jacks up the rents, kicks out the residents and flips the property at a profit based on the new higher rents. The most recent example was a senior housing apartment complex. I also heard from a disabled veteran last week who was collateral damage.
In the aftermath, I’ve had several people ask why the ‘city doesn’t do something.’ The short answer is that we are preempted by state law from imposing any form of rent control. but that could change.
Right now, the state legislature is considering House Bill 2401. If passed, the bill will eliminate the preemption and give local jurisdictions the ability to set limits on rent increases. That ability exists in California – which is the reason the ‘investor’ I described above is targeting Arizona residents. Here’s a copy of the bill summary.
Note that the bill is being sponsored by 6 different state representatives. All of them are Democrats. If you are so inclined, you might want to jot a note of thanks to these sponsors. As important, find some Republican representatives who might care about seeing their grandparents put out on the street. The bill will need bipartisan support, or it won’t get out of committee for debate and a vote.
Two Valentine Opportunities
Speaking of housing, Compass Affordable Housing is hosting their annual Valentine’s Day online auction. CAH specializes in creating affordable living space, largely for veterans, but they’ve got others housed as well. The proceeds from the auction will go to support their important work. It’s all online and it began today. You can sign into the site at https://cahi.betterworld.org/auctions/valentines-auction
Another Valentine option is for you to adopt a critter. Reid Park Zoo is offering the opportunity to support their work in animal conservation by adopting one of the many animals they’re caring for. There are over 30 different kinds of critters you can choose from – elephants, lions, wild African dogs, flamingos, and more. They have several levels you can choose from – use this link to see what those are and the benefits you’ll receive, beyond knowing you’re helping in their work.
https://reidparkzoo.org/get-involved/adopt-an-animal/
Omicron Surge
This is the most recent CDC data on the infection rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated people. Unvaccinated people are 18x more likely to become hospitalized, and 50x more likely to die from COVID than vaccinated people are. That data is compelling.
The data is compelling, except that last week the city ended its testing mandate for unvaccinated employees. I’ve spoken with representatives of the Pima County Health Department. They agree with me that ending the testing policy right in the middle of the Omicron surge was not a helpful policy decision. At the M&C meeting when the change was announced, I said that I want it to be on record that I completely disagree with it. It's nice to have health experts in agreement with that position.
The Morning Consult ran some surveys to test how people are feeling about COVID. Specifically, how worried they are about themselves or various family members catching the virus. This first graph shows the response broken down by age group. It shows that among all age categories most people are still at least somewhat worried about catching COVID. The data changed when they factored in vaccination status.
I mentioned above that the city has stopped our mandatory testing program for unvaccinated employees. This graph shows that it’s vaccinated workers who continue to have a healthy fear of contracting the disease. The decision to stop testing is a nod to the unvaccinated, and it flies in the face of the surge numbers we continue to see.
Did you see the media report of the lady who threatened to bring a gun to school if the school board implemented a mask mandate. Based on the results of this next question I’m pretty sure we can assume the woman wasn’t a Biden supporter. It continues to be sad that science has become politicized this way.
This family member likely isn’t reflecting on how his wife voted in the last election. There was a point to our testing mandate, and the point was to avoid scenes like this.
The Omicron surge continues to fill hospitals. The numbers are overwhelming and as a result health care workers are burning out. The U.S., Canada and the U.K. are right now all aggressively out recruiting medical workers from developing nations. The pull has changed migration patterns. Howard Catton is the Chief Executive of the International Council of Nurses. He is quoted as saying “We have absolutely seen an increase in international migration. The high, high risk is that you are recruiting nurses from countries that can least afford to lose their nurses.” It’s the same as when rich countries bought up all the vaccines. I’ve shared maps in previous newsletters showing the drastic differences in international vaccination rates. We’ve still got a significant portion of our own population worried the vax will somehow affect their DNA. This graphic speaks to that concern:
In the U.S. we’re seeing about 1,000 nurses arrive every month from African nations, the Philippines and the Caribbean. O’Grady Peyton International is an international recruiting firm. They estimate we’ve got about 10,000 foreign nurses with U.S. job offers on waiting lists for interviews at American embassies around the world for the required visas. Quick note – they're competing for space in the visa process with refugees fleeing Taliban. The Biden administration needs to up their visa/refugee game.
This graph shows the trajectory of testing for COVID. It looks very much like it did a year ago. Note though that shortly after the previous surge the virus plunged. That’s what we’re hoping to see again – but it doesn’t happen overnight, and we don’t know if we don’t test.
Pima County Health has provided this link you can use to get self-test kits. It’s good for up to 4 kits per household: www.COVIDtests.gov .
And they’re still hosting several test centers. Each of them requires an appointment. You can get more testing information from the PCHD site at www.pima.gov/covid19testing.
More on the COVID numbers below, but first let’s see what’s happening with the spread of the flu bug this week.
Flu Season
Good news on the flu season front. Arizona has dropped to ‘minimal’ in terms of flu spread. Good for all of you who have gotten your flu vaccination. Here’s this week’s map. For most of the Pacific Northwest this is an improved situation. Other parts of the country are getting hit hard, but for now we’re doing well. Mask wearing, distancing and staying home if you don’t feel well are all important practices to continue following.
RTA
Aside from COVID, the most important local issue this past week was our involvement in the RTA. The M&C will have a special meeting on Tuesday to talk about where it all stands. Here’s a brief history and a snapshot of what took place at last Thursday’s RTA board meeting.
Last September the M&C unanimously passed a motion that contained this bullet point:
• Unless otherwise directed by subsequent Mayor and Council action, that the City of Tucson withdraw its participation in RTA Next on February 1, 2022.
We have taken no subsequent action, so the meeting tomorrow will be where our participation in RTA Next is decided.
I’ve covered this extensively in previous newsletters. Our primary concerns have been proportional representation on the RTA, assuring our projects are fully funded and building some flexibility into the Next plan so jurisdictions can adapt to changing circumstances. At last week’s RTA/PAG meeting there was movement in each of those areas. Whether it was enough to cause M&C to sign onto continuing dialog is what we’ll see tomorrow.
There were 4 options on the table addressing the proportional representation. Rex Scott had one in which Tucson would get 4 votes, the county would get 3 and each other jurisdiction would get 1 vote. At the beginning of the meeting South Tucson Mayor Teso made a motion to pass that proposal. Regina offered a second to that motion – and then they jumped into an RTA staff presentation of the implications of each idea. One issue related to the 4-3-1 proposal is that it would have required Ducey to approve it. Largely because of that, the motion was later dropped.
Mayor Romero’s proposal was to give the city 8 members on the PAG regional council, the county would have 5 and everyone else would have their current 1 member. That idea didn’t get any support, and it would also have required Ducey’s approval.
Adding a Sun Tran representative to the PAG board was a third proposal. That also would have required state approval, and since Sun Tran is a city contractor some perceived it as creating a conflict of interest. The idea didn’t go anywhere.
The final proposal was brought forward by the ADOT representative, Ted Maxwell. It was to add members to 3 of the PAG subcommittees, one of which is involved with framing the RTA Next package, and the others get involved with review of projects. The Citizen Advisory Committee will have 9 new Tucson area members, one new member for Marana and South Tucson, Pascua Yaqui and Tohono O’odham will soon choose one member each. The CAC is where the terms of RTA Next will be created. It’s an advisory committee, so they won’t dictate what goes on the ballot, but they’ll recommend to the larger PAG board. Ted was addressing the city’s ‘voice’ in RTA with this idea. In addition, he proposed the city get one more member on both the Technical Management Committee and the Citizens Accountability for Regional Transportation Committee (CART.) Funding and possible changes in project scope are discussed in those committees.
Funding was another large concern for M&C. There are 32 projects still to be completed from RTA 1. The total funding shortfall is north of $300M. City of Tucson projects are underfunded by a total of more than $200M. Some of that’s due to the recession, some is due to when a jurisdiction made scope changes to the project, and some is due to inflation. It’s clear from RTA bylaws that inflation adjustments are to be made. So far, the RTA Executive Director has taken the position that all the RTA is on the hook for is what was shown as the 2006 budget amount. That’s a deal breaker, and Ted’s proposal appears to attempt to address it. Specifically, by “Identifying the proposed plan and funding to complete the projects as part of the original RTA o Define the specifics to outline how original RTA projects are addressed if they are moved into RTA Next o Projects to be frontloaded to the beginning of RTA Next o Projects recognized as original RTA projects and not included in as RTA Next projects for discussion of a jurisdiction’s share of RTA Next projects.”
I appreciate the attempt. The last 2 phases of Grant Rd have a $55M funding gap. The funding gap for 1st Avenue is $63M. There’s a conversation to be had about how much of that is due to inflation and what portion reflects a change in scope. We’ll see at tomorrow’s special meeting whether M&C want to continue this dialog.
No matter which proposal we move forward with, or which projects make it to the final RTA Next ballot, there will not be enough sales tax money generated to pay for all the projects. That heightens the importance of the federal infrastructure bill and other federal funding sources. Despite the Marana Mayor’s tantrum, I think we’ve got a good foundation for continued discussion.
One final part of the motion RTA adopted was to continue looking into the idea of weighted voting. The idea is to study what they’re doing in Maricopa County and see if we could replicate portions of it here. There they use a weighted vote as a veto vote. It’s used rarely. Doing that would likely invite state legislature intervention. If that were to occur, there’s a likelihood the entire RTA could be unsettled.
Finally, this chart shows how much legislative input each of the proposals would invite. Keeping this decision local is an important goal. Green means least regulatory challenges. Red means both governor and legislature involvement
Freedom Park Resource Fair
This event is a month out but given its importance I want to get it on your calendar. The Pima County Community and Workforce Development Department (CWD) is hosting a resource fair on Saturday, March 5th. It’ll run from 10am until 3pm out at Freedom Park – 5000 E. 29th Street. The fair will focus on eviction prevention and services for folks who may be facing loss of a home.
The fair will be targeting the 29th Street corridor. Right now, over 60 families in that area are in danger of being evicted. Refer back to the rent gouging story I had in last week’s newsletter. In too many cases people are simply being ‘rent-increased’ out of their home. Often by out of state investor groups.
The fair will have over 30 different vendors offering assistance in workforce training, emergency housing, utility assistance, COVID testing kits, and PPE. You do not need to live in the 29th Street area to take part. Contact Marcelino Flores at CWD for more information – marcelino.flores@pima.gov, or call him at 724.4007.
Riders on the Orphan Train
Right now, there are Afghan families stuck in and around Kabul who are forced to sell their little girl into forced marriage in order to have money to feed the rest of the family. I’ve had people make a cultural issue out of it. In reality, it is really a poverty and need issue. Between the late 1850’s and the start of the depression in the U.S. it’s estimated that over 250,000 orphans and unwanted children were taken out of New York City and simply given away at train stations throughout America. Why? Because in many cases the parents were too impoverished to keep them. It was called a ‘placing out’ process, originally organized by a Methodist minister and the Children’s Aid Society of New York. In that 75 year time span, children were sent to every state in the continental U.S.
On Sunday, February 6th at 6pm our friends at the Southern Arizona Transportation Museum will host a one-hour multi-media program telling the story of the kids who rode the ‘orphan trains.’ Author Alison Moore will be on hand for a reading, and there will be a video presentation with archived photos and interviews of survivors. It’s a part of the American Dream we don’t hear much about.
The show happens at 414 N. Toole. If you’d like more information on the event, please contact Ken Karrels at 623-2223 or check out Tucsonhistoricdepot.org.
Ready, Set, Rec
And on a much lighter note, thanks again this month to Sierra Boyer for doing the legwork on scheduling the Ready, Set, Rec vans all over the city. All the feedback I get from families who visit the vans is positive. If you haven’t taken part, you should consider it.
Here’s the Ward 6 van schedule. It’s all COVID-safe, outdoors and most importantly – fun.
COVID Case Counts
For reference I’ll keep the end of year COVID weekly counts for a while longer. At least until we start to see a drop in current cases back to those levels. Which is not to suggest 2,000 cases per week is a good level, but based on where we are now, getting there would represent a downward trend. Here’s how we ended last year.
Week of 11/29 - 3,639 new cases
Week of 12/6 - 2,965 new cases
Week of 12/13 - 2,493 new cases
Week of 12/20 - 2,022 new cases
Earlier I had some graphs showing how COVID case counts seem to be levelling off in some parts of the country. Local health experts predict the same here, but timing is everything and as you can see from our own case counts, we’re not there yet. And to be clear, as is true where the counts are starting to peak, they’re peaking at extremely high levels, so there’s a long way to go.
Week of 12/27 - 4,229 new cases
Week of January 2nd - 10,433 new cases
Week of 1/10 - 15,472 new cases
Week of 1/17 - 18,308 new cases
Week of 1/24 - 13,735 new cases
Until now, December 2020 was the highest case count month we’ve had since COVID hit. That was just north of 29,000 cases. January 2022 just set a new record of roughly double that amount – not something to aspire to, and yes, something we ‘achieved’ with the help of unvaccinated people. Arizona’s going to reach 2,000,000 cases and likely 30,000 deaths. But nothing is going to move the needle – literally or figuratively – for people who still resist science. Thank you to those of you who don’t.
Harvard Global Health Institute
The Harvard risk level map is self-explanatory. Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. With the regularly running media reports of Omicron being on the descent, the map validates that the drop is like a high altitude skydive. We’ve got a long way to go before things are ‘safe and back to normal.’
I had the comparison in cases per 100,000- and 7-day rolling averages in last week’s newsletter. This week there’s an ever-so-moderate drop in those categories for Pima County. It’s nowhere near ‘good,’ but maybe, just maybe the spike happened on cue in mid-January.
Week of 12/27 - 4,229 new cases – 41 cases per 100,000 population / average 430 per day
Week of January 2nd - 10,433 new cases – 111 per 100,000 / 1,167 per day
Week of 1/10 - 15,472 new cases – 189 cases per 100,000 population / 1,983 per day.
Week of 1/17 - 18,308 – 241 cases per 100,000 population / 2,524 per day
Week of 1/24 - 13,735 – 210 cases per 100,000 population / 2,204 per day
And here’s my usual closing – the current Arizona COVID count by county. A little inside baseball – I use this map to compare one week to the next so I can give you the updated weekly counts. Call it my cheat sheet.
Sincerely,
Steve Kozachik Council Member, Ward 6 ward6@tucsonaz.gov
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