Ringing in the New Year
At full capacity, a foot of saguaro cactus can weigh upwards of 90 pounds
New Year morning, this guy woke up to find the wonderful rains we’d had the prior few days, plus the blustery wind that followed had caused this saguaro to topple over – onto his car. The thing was about 15’ tall. Based on the Google note, the front hood and windshield took on about 1,400 pounds on impact. It’s tough to see from the photo, but the hood is crushed, the fender is totaled and the windshield was ‘only’ hit by the small 3’ section you see laying in the road. It will need to be replaced.
At full capacity, a foot of saguaro cactus can weigh upwards of 90 pounds
New Years morning, this guy woke up to find the wonderful rains we’d had the prior few days, plus the blustery wind that followed had caused this saguaro to topple over – onto his car. Clearly a case of a tipsy cactus from New Year’s partying. The thing was about 15’ tall. Based on the Google note, the front hood and windshield took on about 1,400 pounds on impact. It’s tough to see from the photo, but the hood is crushed, the fender is totaled, and the windshield was ‘only’ hit by the small 3’ section you see laying in the road. It will need to be replaced.
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 The good news is the mailbox survived – useful in filing an insurance claim.
Judge Ahmad
The very draining process of family reunification for Afghan refugees continues. Every single day, sometimes literally for hours, I’m in touch with a variety of groups trying to work through the maze of our refugee resettlement/immigration process is. The groups involved with Ahmad and his family’s case include two congressional offices, both of our senatorial offices, the IRC, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR,) the International Refugee Assistance Project (IRAP,) our D.C. policy team, 1 guy I’ve spoken to in Turkey who’s assisting with the family protection, and their sponsor here in the U.S. The ultimate authority for moving the needle will be when the State Department successfully engages the Turkish government and works out transit details.
In the midst of all these moving parts, I had a need to put together a private email connection with Ahmad and his wife (Nilofar), so they can communicate directly with one of the agencies that’s assisting. Last week late one evening, I received this email. I can’t describe how moved I was to finally see this little bit of progress in connecting.
Subject: [EXTERNAL]
Hello Steve, Ahmad
This is Nilofar
That’s it – and here was my reply to her. (Kawsar is the little girl)
It's so great to "meet" you. I have lots of people working on getting you here safely and quickly.
More soon. Stay safe and give Kawsar a hug. Stevek
Here are a couple of examples of how broken our process is. There’s a Priority resettlement document you can file if you were a U.S. government employee overseas. It’s called P2. We have thousands of government workers stuck in Afghanistan, Turkey, and other dangerous areas. To file the P2, you must be in a 3rd country. And you must walk the application to a U.S. embassy. And you may not file if you were a subcontractor working for the U.S. government – even driving vehicles with an American flag displayed, making you a target. You may not file online. Many of the people who are eligible can’t leave their homes safely due to Taliban presence – we require they cross an international border. And we require they physically present themselves at one of our embassies. Setting aside the fact that there aren’t embassies on every street corner, walking into one makes this group an even more vulnerable target.
We also require all of the documents to be filed in English. I’m aware of one individual who had to venture out into a city where he was a high profile target only to get a birth certificate for his child translated from an Arabic language into English. There should be no surprise that the rejection rate is high. We’re requiring these steps of people who largely don’t speak our language, are living in mortal danger, are trying to figure out our refugee system on their own, and by the way – we don’t give fee waivers out like candy. For one status of humanitarian visa, it costs $575 per person just to file. These are refugees.
When I received Nilofar’s email, it literally brought tears to my eyes. We’re not giving up on this. And along the way, it’s becoming abundantly clear that fundamental changes need to be made in how our process is managed.
Thank you for all of the donations you’re providing. They’re outpacing the ability of the refugees to find housing (more collateral damage inflicted by the robust housing market). We do not need clothing. Pressure cookers and big pots to boil rice in are hot commodities. And kids’ toys.
Point in Time Homeless Count
Each year the city partners with the Tucson Pima Collaboration to End Homelessness and the UA Southwest Institute for Research on Women to do a point in time count of our homeless population. That effort only works with the help of volunteers. The count will take place on Wednesday, January 26th, from 6 am until 11 am. They’re recruiting volunteer helpers now.
Teams will be formed, and they’ll be given areas to canvass. You won’t be asked to work independently of others. When contact is made with a homeless person, you’ll conduct a short survey, assessing needs and getting some demographics and history. In order to volunteer, you must be 18 years old and be familiar with using either a smartphone or a tablet. And during this Omicron surge, all COVID protocols will be followed.
Please use this link to get more information on the count and to register.
More informationRegister to volunteer
Medicare Prescription Drug Premiums
A member of our downtown residents' neighborhood group shared an issue with me that deserves to be passed along. If you’re on Medicare, some very basic changes in their plan options could cost you/or save you some considerable cash.
The basic plan for ‘21 has been discontinued. That means you cannot simply roll that over and continue that coverage for ‘22. However, they’re offering a base plan for ‘22 that’s less expensive and has similar coverage to the basic ‘21 plan. The problem is if you try rolling over the ‘21 plan since it doesn’t exist, they’ll choose one for you. My downtown friend did that and later learned Medicare had assigned him to the premium plan, costing several hundred dollars more than the basic.
Please do not rely on “default renewal” when choosing your new plan. The difference between the premium for the ‘21 basic and the ‘22 premium plan is about $500 annually. In addition, since most of the Medicare customers have an automatic deduction from their Social Security checks to pay the premiums, many may not know of the change unless they go to their SS account and look for the change. If you have any questions about the rates or coverage, please check www.medicare.gov. This year’s open enrollment for the basic plan is closed, but Medicare Advantage Open Enrollment runs until March 31st.
Low Income Water Support
While I’m on the topic of saving money, I want to remind you of the Tucson Water low-income water rate reduction plan. Participation in it has grown each year since we adopted it in 2013. This chart shows that growth. We began with roughly 2,100 participants. Now we’ve got over 5,500. The average annual savings for those families is just under $300, so it’s worth taking a look at.
 The amount you can benefit is based on your family size and income. We have 3 different tiers of savings ranging from a 25% reduction to a 75% reduction in your bill. You can use this table to see if and where your family qualifies. Soon we’ll be considering ways to expand this program, but you don’t need to wait on that in order to get included. If you’ve got questions, go to https://www.tucsonaz.gov/water, and there’s a link right on the main page. Or give us a call at the Ward office at 791.4601, and we’ll help you get connected to the program.
 Omicron Surge
The good news is that an analysis of patients in Houston showed that Omicron patients were only about 1/3 as likely to require hospitalization as Delta patients were. And In Britain, they found Omicron patients to be about ½ as likely to need hospital care. So why are hospitals running short of beds – and most importantly, short of staff? Because Omicron is so much more contagious that many more people are becoming infected. Those 1/3 and ½ fractions are based on a much higher total count, so the impacts on our health care workers continues to be extreme.
In our office, we have 6 family members who have tested positive. Symptoms range from none to about of the flu. The difference in severity appears to be tied to whether or not the person was boosted. Craig Spencer is an E.R. doc in New York. He says, ‘Thankfully, the COVID patients aren’t as sick. But there’s so many of them. The next few weeks will be really tough for us”. That will result in some patients – whether they have COVID or something else – not receiving the care they need. It’s why epidemiologists are still trying to convince people to follow the COVID protocols – mask, distance, stay home if you’re sick...And the likely reality is that by now if you haven’t been vaccinated, you probably are proud enough with that decision that you’re simply going to live with it and force others to live with it as well.
This chart validates the concern over raw numbers and their impact on hospitalization. While we’re not at the levels of last winter’s peak surge, they’re trending upwards, and they’re getting close. I know two doctors who tell me some unvaccinated patients have become belligerent when they’re asked about their vaccination status. We’re unnecessarily losing health care workers as a result.
 Last week the UA announced cloth masks will no longer be enough for you to sit and watch a UA basketball game in McKale Center. Either a surgical mask, a KN95, or an N95 is needed. It’s an interesting change in policy, especially considering that they haven’t been actively enforcing the policy that has already been in place. They could require fans wear an aqualung, but without it being enforced, it’s meaningless. And they’re going back to in-person classes, despite resistance from faculty. It’s like the old Country Joe and the Fish lyrics - “there’s plenty good money to be made” in this case by filling McKale and keeping attendance up as high as possible. Not all schools are walking down that path. This is a partial list of some who are delaying in-person, at least until this surge is under control.
 Flu Season
Also making the rounds among some of my staff is Influenza B. Coupled with Omicron, the impacts can be deadly, especially for immune compromised people. And the symptoms can be very similar to one another. You know these – they’re common flu symptoms:
Here’s what the CDC identifies as possible COVID symptoms:
You can have either the flu or COVID and not be running a fever. The message – don't expose others if you have any of those symptoms, and get tested for COVID.
This is the flu infection rate map I had last week. It was for the week prior to Christmas.
 Here’s how it progressed by New Year’s. Standing alone it’s bad. Coupled with Omicron, it’s really bad. Knowing that Delta is still with us, it’s deadly.
 The last month of 2021 ended with a slight downward trend in new case counts here in Pima County. That was pre-Omincron. Here are those last 4 weeks of the year.
Week of 11/29 - 3,639 new cases
Week of 12/6 - 2,965 new cases
Week of 12/13 - 2,493 new cases
Week of 12/20 - 2,022 new cases
We begin 2022 with a change of course.
Week of 12/27 - 4,229 new cases
Week of January 2nd - 10,433 new cases
Remember, those are COVID-positive cases. Nothing in those data shows the flu. Everything in those data implicates an impact on our health care professionals. That’s doctors, nurses, physical therapists, physician assistants, technicians, orderlies, intake staff, custodial staff – everybody who steps foot in a health care institution is the collateral damage of all you who choose your liberty over the pandemic
Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs)
We adopted the final rules related to ADUs, and now there’s some outreach happening to educate property owners as to what’s allowed. City staff, along with the Pima County Community Land Trust, will be hosting a seminar on Wednesday, January 12th, out at the Sentinel Building – 320 N. Commerce Park Loop. The meeting will run from 5:30 until 7 pm, and there will be Spanish translation available. There will also be a Zoom option.
ADUs are not going to solve our housing affordability problem, but they may be a tool in some limited instances. Given the magnitude of the housing challenges we’re seeing, every little bit of help is welcome. And beyond addressing affordability in housing, other potential benefits of ADUs include aging in place, caregiver quarters, ‘granny flats', and small rentals. Bring your questions to the seminar if you think you might like to put one of these on your lot.
They need you to register for the event, so there’s enough material and translators. Please register via EventBrite using whichever of these links is appropriate.
In-person: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/233601326857ZOOM: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/233608779147
TEP Transmission Line Project
The DeMoss-Petrie TEP project is their transmission line upgrade that right now is programmed to run down the Campbell/Kino gateway corridor. By way of a very quick review, as public outreach was winding down and it appeared TEP was unwilling to entertain any undergrounding of the new work, I raised the issue of our gateway ordinance and the fact that it requires all new utility work to be underground. The result has been a new conversation with TEP and various groups who have ‘intervened’ in the discussion happening in front of the Arizona Corporation Commission (ACC). Those groups include TEP, the City of Tucson, the UA, Banner UMC, and others
During a meeting of the interveners and some of the ACC staff last week, TEP made a presentation that was in response to the city’s earlier comment that a public special exception process might be a way for TEP to seek relief in some select areas from the undergrounding ordinance. A part of these ‘intervener’ meetings is trying to frame the upcoming public engagement where they may be asking for variances from the underground requirement. Some criteria that might be considered include whether the location is already zoned for industrial uses, proximity to residential areas, what utilities already exist in the area, whether the location is simply crossing a gateway and not running down it, and some others. It’s all a part of the ongoing discussion about how the project moves forward. What is clear though, is any variances requested will go through a public process.
Here’s the entire Kino segment. TEP has estimated the cost for going underground along the whole route is in the $63M range. They haven’t backed out from that litigation that may well follow if homeowners demonstrate a drop in their own property value.
There’s some reason to believe some of the ACC staff are not supportive of spreading costs for undergrounding among ratepayers. There are a lot of moving pieces to this – city ordinances, ACC rate-setting oversight, property values, criteria for variances and the process required for applying, and the ‘who pays’ question. With all of that up in the air, TEP has delayed their presentation in front of the ACC line siting subcommittee to give time to continue working for solutions.
Here’s an example of where TEP might be asking for a variance. This is looking north coming over the hill on Kino. It’s set back from residential and is already a major transit corridor zoned industrial. The first picture shows what’s there now – the second shows the simulation of what TEP is proposing, along with their cost estimate of overhead lines (OH) vs. underground (UG). Scrolling back up to the map of the Kino corridor, you can see they’ve broken it into sections, each with its own unique characteristics and zoning, and each a part of our gateway corridor ordinance requiring a public process for any variance to the underground requirements.
  To be completely fair, some neighborhoods that are included in the full Demoss-Petrie project are more concerned with the intermittent brownouts they’re experiencing than the aesthetics of overhead vs. undergound. Some of those neighborhoods are also not located on the Kino gateway. I mention that to show there are lots of varying positions and perspectives on this. The wider public outreach will begin soon.
Pima Mine Road Recharge Project / Rosemont
Late last year, I included a piece in the newsletter about Rosemont working a deal with the Central Arizona Project (actually the Central Arizona Water Conservation District – CAWCD – but it’s the same as CAP for these purposes). The deal was to allow Rosemont to store water in the Pima Mine Road storage facility, which we are part owners of.
At the time I wrote, the CAP had that agreement on their agenda for a vote. The City of Tucson had not been consulted. Why should we have been? Because as part-owner, we have a joint-use agreement for the storage facility. As a part of that agreement, we are given the right of first refusal to use the facility for any excess storage capacity. Those conversations generally take place in around October when we’re placing our water orders with CAP. Had we known Rosemont was going to ask to use our excess storage capacity, we’d have simply topped off the facility with our water and refused to benefit the mining company.
When we placed our order, Rosemont did not have a storage permit. In fact, at the time, it wasn’t even clear they’d ever get one. So we left capacity available in the facility. Here are the relevant sections of our joint use agreement with CAP. The first one simply gives us the right to top off the facility. The second section gives the time frame in which we have to make that decision.
 The point is pretty simple – if a new player (Rosemont) comes forward after that 45-day window has expired, and all orders have been placed, they can wait until 2023’s conversation to request storage. And if CAP is going to reopen the discussion about topping off the Pima Mine Road facility after the 45-day window has expired, then our clock should restart as well.
 The CAP voted to move ahead with the Rosemont storage. City officials all voted no. We’re looking into what legal options we have to exercise our right of first refusal. More to come on this one.
Harvard Global Health Institute
This week’s Harvard risk level map reminds me of the line from the movie ‘you can run, but you can’t hide’. That little green spot up by the Canadian border is Daniels County, Montana. They’ve had a total of 313 cases, and 9 fatalities since this all began. Their population is 1,730. That looks to be one of the few safe-havens. The rest of us need to do all of the CDC recommended stuff – masks, distance, stay home if you’re sick, avoid large crowds.
 Last week our 7 days moving average for new cases was 41 per 100,000 population. The average case count was 430 per day. We’ve more than doubled those numbers in the past week. I know – the sceptics are saying Omicron is less severe. Tell that to our overwhelmed nursing staff and anyone else working in our hospitals.
A small percentage of COVID tests are run through the process of seeing which strain of the virus is accounting for the positive result. Speculation is much of our increase is due to Omicron. That’s consistent with what the rest of the country is experiencing.
If you are experiencing any symptoms, or if you’ve been in contact with somebody who you know has tested positive for COVID, you should be tested. Omicron is highly contagious. This a listing of the Pima County testing centers. They’re free – but you must make an appointment.
 In Pima County, we’ve had 3,242 deaths due to COVID since this all started. Statewide it’ll pass 25,000 this week. And the governor is still issuing orders trying to prevent vaccination mandates.
Here’s my usual closing – the current Arizona COVID count by county.
Sincerely,
Steve Kozachik
Council Member, Ward 6
ward6@tucsonaz.gov
City of Tucson Resources
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