Afghan Update
We’ve had a ton of community support for the Afghan resettlement effort. One who is providing assistance from multiple directions is Jimmy – the owner of India Twist Restaurant. They’re located at 4660 E. Camp Lowell. For you long-timers, that’s the old Ft. Lowell Road, east of Swan.
If you’ve been by the Ward office and have seen all of the donations, one of the challenges you’ll remember is the clothes are in bags and are difficult for people to see what they’re getting. Jimmy is having one of his workers build us some clothes racks so we can make it more user-friendly for the families when they come in to pick through the stuff. On several occasions, he has also volunteered his pick-up truck and time to cart furniture and beds to homes of the new arrivals. And he has provided meals to the families who are still having to stay in a hotel. We’re grateful to him for his help. His is a local restaurant that could use your support. If you can bring in a few hangers-on your next trip, that’ll be helpful.
I’m working with Congressman Grijalva’s office, our D.C. policy partners and others, to get the judge who did my swearing-in reunified with his family. The Congressman and our policy team have been helpful, and I’ve provided a bunch of documents they can use in support of the effort. Ultimately our State Department is the one who can authorize Ahmad’s wife and 2 year old the visa to come here. That’s the executive branch. Congress is the legislative branch. Connecting them has been a challenge. Over the weekend, I spoke to a friend of Ahmad’s who is in Turkey helping out his family. The family’s residency permit was due to expire on Saturday. At that point, they’d have been in Turkey illegally, and getting them out would have been costly and very difficult. That friend has made an appointment with the Turkish government to try to get their permit extended. While that appointment is pending, she’s there legally. During this time, our State Department can still issue a travel document to get them to the U.S. There’s a serious meter running on all of this.
Some of what I’m being told by the State is that Turkey is granting extensions on residency. Ahmad’s family and his friend in Turkey have both told me that without a father/husband present, getting the extension is not likely. I’m also being told by State that these things take time, and the family should be prepared for a stay of “several months in a third country”. He was a judge adjudicating terrorists, most of whom have now been released from prison. He also worked for the U.S. effort in Afghanistan. When my contacts tell me there are many ‘similar situations,’ I have replied that’s simply not true. Just a little bit of situational awareness at State would lead them to issuing whatever permission to travel is needed immediately.
The story has so many new twists and angles. Saturday, Ahmad went to Western Union to wire his wife some money. His only official document is his Afghanistan passport. The U.S. government has placed restrictions on sending money into that country since the Taliban have taken over. The intent is to punish the Taliban. The result was that he couldn’t send her any money. We got it done by me using my driver’s license as authorization, but it’s a side effect of the financial policies that are in place, perhaps with a good intention, but the collateral damage is being felt by an untold many.
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Here’s Ahmad’s little girl’s picture. Yes, I have permission to share it. I’m intentionally not putting his wife’s picture in the newsletter due to security concerns. But I want you to have a visual of who this is all about. The family has now been apart for 9 months. The little girl is what reunification should be all about.
We’re, of course still a donation site for the Community Food Bank. The Afghan community is in touch with CFB, so your food donations will touch those needs as well as broader needs scattered throughout the region. We’re open from 9-12, Monday through Friday, for all of these items. The Ward 3 office located at 1510 E. Grant is also taking CFB donations.
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Genna – Another System Failure
Genna Ayup is by now a somewhat familiar story to those of you who read this newsletter. She was killed by a live-in on June 26th, 2012. We’re going on 10 years later, and the case may be coming to a close.
The killer has pleaded guilty to this: AMENDED COUNT ONE: NEGLIGENT HOMICIDE, A CLASS FOUR NON-DANGEROUS FELONY
If convicted, he can receive from 1 year in prison up to 3.75 years. Or, as it appears where this is headed, he can receive probation. The court has instructed the two sides to craft a plea agreement that could include this:
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 There’s even talk now about reducing the charges even more. We’ll see whether the court bows to that request.
Here are the facts of the case. The killer had been out drinking. We have the evidence. He was home with another drink sitting in front of him when the police arrived. Genna’s body was approximately 6’ from where there was a broken wine glass, a punched hole in the wall, and signs of struggle. Their 2+ year old son told police, ‘daddy hit mommy, then daddy shot mommy’. The killer admits to the shooting. He says it was an accident caused when he was putting a new grip onto the loaded weapon.
TPD did not do a blood alcohol test. One of the TPD detectives (now promoted within the department) said she had an armorer report on the case. In fact, no armorer ever looked at the weapon or reviewed the specific crime scene. All she had done was ask her husband (an armorer) if an accidental discharge could be possible. The defendant had said he had been outside playing with the water hose with his son. The hose was coiled up, and no water was on the ground when TPD arrived. Genna had a bruise on the side of her face. The coroner said it might have happened when she hit the ground after having been shot. TPD had the site fully cleaned within hours of the incident.
The Pima County Attorney’s office initially looked at the TPD ‘investigation’ and dropped the case. My office met with the family, hired an outside investigator, and asked him to review the evidence, photos, and statements made by witnesses who had been interviewed. He was convinced there was a crime committed. We presented that to TPD a couple of years ago, who agreed to resubmit it to PCAO. They reopened the case.
With the recent election of a new Pima County attorney, the case had to be moved into Pinal County due to a conflict of interest within PCAO’s office. The family was initially happy with the new prosecutorial team, but last week they were advised that in January, a plea deal needs to be submitted to the court. I’ve shown the probation piece above.
Many of us have been saying that it simply cannot be a case of ‘oops’ when you’re handling a deadly weapon in a negligent manner. That assumes the defendant’s story is true. Many of us don’t buy that, but let’s go with it. Genna is lost. The family has lived with this for going on 10 years. If comments made by the judge reflect where this is going, her death will end in probation. All of what I’ve written is simply factual. My opinion is that it reflects a broken justice system – for Genna and for her family.
Yogi Berra said, ‘it ain’t over ‘till it’s over’. We’ll see in January.
Film Industry
Speaking of gun violence, many of you know my involvement with the film industry. It’s through my brother initially, but locally with the independent filmmakers, Visit Tucson’s film office, and others. If Arizona had a film incentive at the state level, we’d be in the game much more than we are. Sadly, New Mexico does have an incentive program so productions can take about 25% right off the top of their costs when they budget their films.
New Mexico is also where they recently had an incident with a loaded weapon on a set. Actor Alec Baldwin shot and killed producer Halyna Hutchins with what he says he thought was an unloaded weapon. It should have been double and triple-checked. It wasn’t. There are no re-takes in this situation.
The Actor’s Equity Association is a group formed in support of theater productions. They’ve got a set of safety protocols governing how guns are used in their shows. One of those says ‘no live ammunition in the theater’. At our last study session, I brought an item for M&C approval that says for any film or film-related production shooting in Tucson, any permit we issue will require they follow all of the Actor’s Equity Association guidelines. I’ve listed those in a previous newsletter. I’m sharing with you today the M&C unanimously approved that request.
Ours is a rich history in film. From westerns to period pieces like the HBO pilot that was just shot in downtown, we want film productions in Tucson. They produce good jobs, clean jobs, and the crews invest dollars into our local economy. The filming of the HBO episode leftover $8M new dollars in Tucson businesses. We can have that even more robustly than is now the case when the state legislature adopts an incentive. Until then, we cobble together partnerships to attract the HBOs of the world, and now we’ll do so with safety on the set rules in place, so we don’t follow in New Mexico’s footsteps with our own tragic event.
5G Rollout
A couple of weeks ago, I gave Verizon kudos for having let me know each of their upcoming 5G poles will comply with our new Utility Manual – they'll each be collocated on some existing pole. Since then, I’ve received a couple of lists of Ward 6 5G permit applications for the near term. And all of them are collocations. A year ago, we were fighting to achieve this sort of cooperation. Between Verizon and AT&T, we’ve gotten their partnership in the new pole site selection.
These tables show where the new poles are planned and the type of pole they’re using for the collocation. I’m grateful to all of the company representatives who have joined in making the 5G pole selection process a whole lot less contentious and more aesthetically pleasing than what had been the case.
  Red Cross Blood Drive
With all of the devastation we’ve seen occurring in the southeast, it’s no surprise that Red Cross is in need of donors. What you give can save a life. There’s not much more to say than that. Please consider offering your gift of life. It’ll cost you only the time you invest. This coming Tuesday morning, TFD station 1 downtown is hosting a drive. They’re located right across the street from the TCC.
Thanks for your help.
Vaccine Update
Last fall, we hosted an event in Himmel Park where the 622 Pima County COVID deaths were remembered and memorialized. We had 622 flags planted in Hippie Hill, one for each of the loved one’s we’d lost at the time.
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 This is a photo taken last week in L.A., where they’ve got flags planted to commemorate the now more than 800,000 nationwide COVID deaths. We surpassed that mark last week. That’s over 1,200 per day nationally. And as Omicron is appearing pretty much across the nation, colleges and universities are rethinking how they’re handling end-of-semester classes and mid-term graduation ceremonies. Performances on Broadway are being canceled and/or requiring proof of not only vaccination but of boosters as well. We’re right where we were a year ago, except now we have vaccines and people who are still playing the ‘my liberty’ card.
Focusing on Omicron, here’s this week’s map showing where in the U.S. it has been detected.
Two weeks ago, our national map looked like this for Omicron spread.
Here’s what I had in last week’s newsletter – all Omicron.
Next week the map will likely be full. In terms of severity of symptoms and what our major risk factor is, it’s still Delta by far. But Omicron is spreading much more quickly than anyone had predicted. The symptoms include a dry cough, extreme tiredness, mild muscle aches, and night sweats. It’s now just over 3% of cases nationwide – and increasing by the hour. Of course, the spread isn’t equal across the country. In the region that includes New York, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, Omicron accounts for over 13% of all cases.
We see reports on the nightly news of hospital bed shortages. The more important stress on hospitals isn’t beds – it's staff to attend to the patients lying in the beds. As I mentioned to Paul Ingram from the Tucson Sentinel, you don’t hire a K-Temp to administer a ventilator. The governor last week issued yet another Executive Order prohibiting vaccine mandates. It doesn’t affect ours. He cannot stand at a microphone and claim any concern for or respect for our health care workers as long as he continues to deny the positive impacts vaccines have and try to restrict local jurisdictions from mandating their use.
Omincron’s here. So is the flu. So is Delta.
Flu Update
A couple of years ago, one of my half-sisters died from complications associated with the flu. She was just 59 years old. Ironically, she was a medical doctor and had done all the right preventative things. We held a flu shot event in her honor – El Rio partnered. Now is the time to go out and get yours renewed for the upcoming flu season.
 Get your flu shot. Our sign on the Ward 6 office door says, “It’s cold and flu season – everybody entering must wear a mask.” I’ve been sharing the flu infection maps the past couple of weeks. As is true with Omicron, the flu is spreading nationally. The first map I show below is from the week ending November 27th. The next map is from the week ending December 4th. The lighter hue of green means the flu is more prevalent.
  Here’s the current map showing how the flu season is advancing. Arizona has moved from ‘minimal’ to ‘low’. Texas jumped to ‘moderate’. Areas in the northeast are showing signs that are to be expected as people cram together indoors during cold weather. Don’t expect the trend to reverse before it gets worse. Flu shots are free at most drug store pharmacies. They don’t take effect immediately after you get the shot, so with Christmas now just a week away, getting your shot now is going to be necessary if you hope to have any protection by the time family gathers.
 Delta Spread
The third leg of this mess is, of course Delta variant. Nationally there was a 31% increase in new cases and a 20% increase in hospitalizations as measured over the past 14 days. Arizona’s 14 day counts were about flat, with a 1% increase. That’s flat at a peak though, not flat at an acceptable level.
The national risk level map is still mainly in the ‘extremely high risk’ category. Nearly all of Arizona is at that level.
 Last week Pima County had jumped to 518 new cases daily and a 7 day rolling average of 49 per 100,000. By comparison, those numbers look much better this week – but are still listed as extremely high risk. They jump around week to week, so we’ll see how next week looks after Omicron has had more time to get established.
By way of comparison, here’s the same graphic I had in an April, 2021 newsletter. We were pleased to see infections finally drop below 100 average daily cases per day. Now I’m calling a dip to 372 a positive sign. It’s certainly all relative.
As you get ready for the holiday gatherings, please keep in mind that COVID deaths are still primarily among seniors. This graphic is for the most recent 100,000 COVID deaths. It clearly shows that’s the most vulnerable age group. Fully ¾ of the COVID deaths we’re seeing are in the 65 and older age group.
The pace of COVID deaths has once again increased. You can see that in the spring and through the summer, it was taking in excess of 100 days to get to the next 100,000 milestones. We went from 700,000 to 800,000 in 71 days. And that pace is accelerating.
 Looking at this map, it shows the hot spots for those most recent 100,000 deaths. It’s no surprise that the areas in Arizona where that pace is greatest are also the areas with the lowest vaccination rates.
 Here’s my reference chart again. It looks like we are not going to hit the extreme peak that we did in December, 2020. But we’re still going to be way above the infection rates we saw late spring and early summer.
These are our past 4 month totals:
August – 6,571 new cases
September – 7,198 new cases
October – 8,464 new cases
November – 14,238 new cases
With one more week to go in the month, and in the year, we’re over 9,000 new COVID cases in Pima County for December. That’s an improvement from November, but is still well in excess of each of the previous 3 months.
The Pima County health department continues to do what it can to make vaccines available. Here are your options for the mobile clinics this week. They’re still free, and no appointment is needed.
 This is their list of standing points of vaccine distribution. I know some of the pharmacies are requiring appointments for both COVID and flu vaccinations, so you should call ahead to be sure.
 Go to the Pima County Health site if you want to find the list of pharmacies that’ll give you a dose or if you’re a veteran looking to be vaccinated. Use this link - www.pima.gov/covid19vaccine.
Harvard Global Health Institute
Nothing new from the UA on the spread rate (Rt value), so we’re still only looking at what is now month-old data from them. With our increasing numbers, and the possible emergence of Omicron, this could be an important data point for community awareness. But as I wrote last week, what you see in the table below is pretty much worthless today.
You can find the UA data at this site: https://covid19.arizona.edu/dashboard.
The Delta variant is 6x to 7x more infectious than the original COVID-19 virus. Measles have a transmission rate of about 12-18, meaning a person with measles can infect from 12 to 18 others they come into contact with. Omicron seems to fall somewhere between Delta and the measles for transmission. The message is if you come into contact with somebody shedding that virus, you’re likely going to get it.
I’ll continue keeping my own weekly count so you can see the current data in that form.
I’ve been keeping these weekly totals throughout the year. This is what I had as a warning things were turning in the wrong direction earlier in the spring.
 Beginning with the first week of October, here are the past couple of months, up through what is now mid-December. By way of reminder, the first week in June, we had 130 cases for the whole week. Now we’re seeing 4 and 5 times that daily.
Week of 10/4 - 1,964 new cases
Week of 10/11 - 1,521 new cases
Week of 10/18 - 2,233 new cases
Week of 10/25 - 2,746 new cases
Week of 11/1 - 2,856 new cases
Week of 11/8 - 3,597 new cases
Week of 11/15 - 4,353 new cases
Week of 11/22 - 3,432 new cases
Week of 11/29 - 3,639 new cases
Week of 12/6 - 2,965 new cases
Week of 12/13 - 2,493 new cases
While the number of cases trends in the right direction, in Pima County last week, another 68 Pima County residents died from COVID-related causes. Due to how deaths are sometimes reported, the reality is likely higher than that number. We have now passed the 3,000 death mark in Pima County. About half the population is taking this seriously enough to get vaccinated, and about ½ isn’t. And so on it goes. The chart below is Pima County data. Statewide there have been over 23,000 COVID deaths since this all began.
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This week’s Harvard Global Health Institute risk level map continues to show the majority of the nation is stuck in the high-risk category. It’s almost all Delta. But as I mentioned near the opening, Omicron is rapidly spreading. It’s new enough that making projections on its longer-term effects is still speculation. It’s odd how the significant risk level areas of the country have flipped around ever since the pandemic began. One thing that has been pretty constant is that Arizona is a significant risk area for COVID.
 As was true last week with the NY Times data, The Harvard data for Pima County shows our numbers dropping ever so slightly in the past week. They’re still well entrenched at the high-risk level, but for the second straight week, they’ve headed in the right direction.
Nationally we’ve had over 805,000 people die from COVID since this all began.
You can check what’s going on in your home county by hovering your cursor over it on the Harvard map. Use this link to access it:
https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/
Here’s this week’s statewide COVID map.
Sincerely,
Steve Kozachik
Council Member, Ward 6
ward6@tucsonaz.gov
City of Tucson Resources
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