No Cyber Ninja Attacks
After every election, there’s a statutory time allowed for it to be challenged. Despite some claims that there were “anomalies” in our election process, the losing side has allowed the time frame to expire. Mayor and Council have voted to certify the election, so congratulations are due to Ward 5’s Richard Fimbres and our new colleague representing Ward 3, Kevin Dahl.
My staff and I extend our gratitude to those of you who supported the work we’re doing, and we remain committed to continuing that work throughout the upcoming term.
Holiday This and That
We’re at the beginning of the end-of-year holiday season, so I’m going to share a few related items for you to keep in mind.
First, recycling. You see the Amazon Prime delivery trucks rolling through the neighborhood pretty much every day. They’re about to become even more common as people try to get ahead of the shortages being created by the shipping backlog. And with those deliveries will come cardboard boxes.
Please remember that your cardboard shipping containers are recyclable. And when recycled, they’ll ultimately be reused. It’s a part of the ‘Reduce, Recycle, Reuse’ process. I met with some Republic Services folks last week to continue our conversation about the reuse of plastics. After the meeting, they were kind enough to share this graphic that shows the life cycle of the cardboard boxes you’ll soon have in your living room. Please remove the tape and get them into the blue bins. Next year you might be receiving another box that came from what you tossed for ‘reuse’ this holiday season.
Next, this guy is making plans for his 2021 arrival.
Santa will be calling ahead and speaking to kids, so he and the elves are sure that what they’ve got on the gift list is what the children have in mind. And he can give a little advice on how the kids can be sure they’re on the ‘nice’ list by offering some positive reminders. You can be a part of that whole process.
Our Parks department is helping to facilitate those calls, and now’s the time for you to register your kids. The calls will be made on December 7th, 8th, and 9th. You can register for the calls by using this link: Santa's Calling information and registration Calls can be made in both English and in Spanish – he's a pretty flexible guy. The Parks folks need these registrations by December 3rd, so please keep that in mind if you’d like to have your group receive one of these fun and magical calls.
And finally, we’re going to shift our food collection program here at the Ward office from now until the end of the year. We’ve been gathering food donations in support of the Afghan refugees. In respect of the great work the Community Food Bank of Southern Arizona is doing to touch the needs of so many, from now until the end of the year, we’ll be gathering food, all of which will be sent to the CFB as a part of their Holiday Food Drive. It still has to be non-perishable. The flyer shown below has a shortlist of what they can take to fill holiday food boxes for families in need.
Thank you for all the support you’re giving to the refugee families. As they arrive, many are eligible for SNAP benefits, and all are eligible for the food that’s available through the CFB. So we’ve still got that group in mind – we're just expanding the scope through the CFB partnership.
Catalina Vista Porch Fest
This can count as a ‘holiday’ this and that. Thanks to all who pitched in to make the Catalina Vista porch fest such a great success. I saw people from Blenman-Elm, Palo Verde, El Encanto, SAMOS, and of course, dozens from Catalina Vista.
Special thanks to Kathi and her group for hosting my set. We had people on foot, bike, pushing strollers, and driving golf carts. There were little kids up to seniors, and of course, puppies. It was truly in the spirit of what a porch fest should be.
Afghan Donations
Yes, we are still collecting donations for the Afghans. Every weekday from 9 until noon, we’re open for you to bring by what you have to share. Right now, there are roughly 160 Afghan refugees in Tucson. Most are staying in hotel space that’s being managed by either the International Refugee Committee or Lutheran Social Services. And every day, those resettlement agencies receive word from the State Department about more families who will soon arrive here. We expect a total of 500 – 600 in Tucson when the process is complete.
Housing continues to be a challenge. That’s the reason the hotels are a key component of what we’re doing right now. The needs continue to be kid’s toys and age-appropriate books, household items, hygiene products, and for those who are transitioning into their own housing, towels and bedding are needed. Also, there are many kids, so things such as baby carriages, new diapers and that sort of thing are important.
Right now, we have plenty of clothing. If you bring that, please understand that it may end up with someone in need other than an Afghan refugee. If it’s in good condition, it’s not going to be disposed of, but right now, I cannot guarantee that all clothing items will be donated to the refugee group. We’d actually prefer you hold off on the clothing for now.
The furniture hotline with Habitat for Humanity is working well. That donation hotline is 230.5323. They can come to your home and pick up furniture you’ve got to donate. It’ll end up at HabiStore, and if sold to a non-Afghan family, ½ of the sale price will go into a fund that’s earmarked for the refugees. I’ve worked out an arrangement with the resettlement agencies, so they’re aware of the fund.
The IRC still has job openings for caseworkers. If you’d like to check into those opportunities, check their website at https://rescue.csod.com/ux/ats/careersite/1/home?c=rescue&sq=case%20management&lq=tucson%20arizona. You have to scroll through the job listings, but there are several Tucson opportunities you can check on.
Finally, we at the Ward 6 office continue to be grateful to the team at the Muslim Community Center of Tucson for their partnership in this important relief effort. They’re here weekly filling trucks, taking the donations either back to their facility or directly to the hotel. So your donations have a direct pipeline to those in need. If you’d like to simply donate financially, checks should be made out to Muslim Community Center of Tucson. I pass those along to their staff each time they come by for the donation pick-ups.
Vaccine Update
If it wasn’t for COVID, right now, all over the news, we’d be hearing medical experts asking us all to be sure to get our flu shots. We’re on the cusp of flu season, things are getting cold in the east, people will be gathering indoors together over the holidays, so now is the time to be vaccinated as a protective measure. That message is out there, but due to the new COVID surge, it’s a bit muted. So I’m going to open with it this week. Flu shots are available, and they’re free all over the city.
CDC Director Rochelle Walensky is asking us all to get both the flu and COVID vaccination. I wonder how many of the no-COVID-vax crowd feels the same reluctance to protect themselves and others against the flu. Walensky and CDC experts are concerned that we’re at an even greater risk for a severe flu season this year because of a reduced immunity coming off a very mild flu season last year. Why was it mild? Perhaps because we were all wearing masks, indoor activities were reduced, and ‘social distancing’ was a part of our daily conversation. Today we’re seeing full stadiums and arenas, concert halls, and masks are not required in many commercial establishments.
This is the current flu update from the CDC:
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This map shows where the flu has already been an issue. Note our neighbor New Mexico is the hot spot in the nation. They’re the ones listed in the table that follows the map as the jurisdiction with a “high” incidence of the flu. And that’s Georgia over on the SE coast listed as moderate. Arizona is still among the majority of states listed as ‘minimal’. But health professionals are concerned about, and in some cases predicting a ‘twindemic’ where we’re dealing with both a widespread flu outbreak and COVID. Certainly, our COVID numbers continue to trend in that direction. Vaccinations are available for both.
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The city’s own COVID vaccination mandate has resulted in very good compliance. As of last week’s update by the city manager, we had achieved roughly 95% of our employees having gotten at least their first shot. Most are fully vaccinated. December 1st continues to be our deadline for either getting to the fully vaccinated state or leaving your employment with the city. That’s a choice some will make. Our hospitals are full once again. And those who are hospitalized due to COVID are the unvaccinated. Our policy is correct.
This graph shows what’s happening to the national COVID case counts. Frankly, given how dug in, some people are on no-vax, this is more informational than me trying to convince someone that things are bad and that they should follow the science and get a vaccination. But the reality is things are bad, and you should follow the science and get a vaccination. Actually 2 vaccinations; one for COVID and one for the flu.
As a sidebar comment, during one of our Afghan refugee meetings last week, we discussed getting the children involved with TUSD. None of the families are balking at getting the required immunizations. All arrive in Tucson, having had at least their first COVID shot. They really are here to enjoy the liberties associated with living in the U.S.
One of the reasons we see COVID numbers on the increase is the growing numbers of people gathering indoors without any requirement for distancing, masking, or vaccinating. In the map shown below, you see Arizona, of course, being one of the states where a mandate for masking is banned. In the data I’ll show later, you’ll see that grey “mandates banned” color on the map changed to a bright red ‘high risk’.
Many private businesses do require masks. And we do require it for all of our transit operations. If you’re planning on going to upcoming UA basketball games, even though they don’t enforce their mask ‘policy’ inside McKale Center, we will be doing so on all Sun Tran buses and on the streetcar. Security staff will be on each streetcar prior to and after upcoming UA basketball games. They will offer a new, unopened mask to each passenger who is not wearing one. Passengers who refuse will be asked to disembark at the next stop as a courtesy to the other people riding.
After athletic events, it’s not realistic to expect social distancing on the buses and streetcar that are right on campus. But wearing a mask is you telling your traveling partners that you care about their health and will comply with our policy while on the bus. The fare is free. Let’s not add COVID as a cost of riding.
I shared a graphic that was similar to this one in a recent newsletter. It shows how the vaccines drop in effectiveness over time. That means – get a booster when your time comes.
“Your time” comes at varying times, depending on your age and the kind of vaccine you’ve taken. This series of graphs shows where the U.S. population is in terms of length of time since they became fully vaccinated. As you can see, seniors are first up for the boosters since they were first up in terms of being named a vulnerable population when the shots first became available. To the ‘my liberty’ crowd, did you see all those news stories about seniors dropping like flies due to having gotten vaccinated? Me neither. Pharmacies all over town have COVID boosters available. Most require that you make an appointment.
Our Pima County vaccination rates all increased a little in the past week. These data are for fully vaccinated people. The fact that 39% of our residents are not fully vaccinated places the entire remaining population at risk. And the COVID escalation demonstrates that science sets those rules.
Nationwide we’re at 69% of the population being fully vaccinated. Arizona is below average, as shown in this grahpic. We’re at 63% statewide.
Last week our risk level was in the “extremely high risk” category. We were measured at 528 average new cases per day and 50 per 100,000 in Pima County. Once again, those numbers got worse in the past week:
I had this chart in last week’s newsletter. It shows the progression of COVID during 2020. I’ll keep it in for a while, so we have something to measure the current surge against. It looks very much like we will pass last November’s 11,035 cases before the end of this month.
These are our past 3 month totals:
August – 6,571 new cases
September – 7,198 new cases
October – 8,464 new cases
So far in November, we have had over 10,800 new cases of COVID. Unless the virus slams on the brakes right now, this month will surpass November 2020 in a new case count.
Last year, based on the increasing infections, bars were shut, schools were virtual, and we didn’t have access to vaccines. Now bars are open, schools are in person, and nearly 40% of the population isn’t taking advantage of vaccines. There should be no surprise that we’re still talking about a COVID surge.
Here’s this week’s national map. Not only is New Mexico the national hot spot for the flu, nearly that entire state is also in the ‘extremely high risk’ category for COVID. That’s all right across the border. Keep it in mind if you’ve got friends or relatives visiting from there during the holidays.
The Pima County health department continues to do what it can to make vaccines available. This is a short week, though, so your options for the mobile clinics are a bit more limited than they have been. But they’re still free, and no appointment is needed.
This is their list of standing points of vaccine distribution. I know some of the pharmacies are requiring appointments for both COVID and flu vaccinations, so you should call ahead to be sure.
Go to the Pima County Health site if you want to find the list of pharmacies that’ll give you a dose or if you’re a veteran looking to be vaccinated. Use this link - www.pima.gov/covid19vaccine.
Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU) Update
ADUs are the casitas being proposed for back yards that can accommodate multiple uses. Caregiver quarters, aging in place, multi-generational family, small rentals for added income – it's all a part of what this discussion has been about. It’s really too bad that we cannot have a discussion about zoning without it being characterized as racially based. So many of us have been ally’s in the cause of racial justice for our entire lives – longer than some of the people who are now casting the racial net into the ADU conversation have been alive. For example, this was a social media post that came out last week calling on people to fight the reduction in size I and others have advocated for:
Racism in housing practices has advanced systemic inequalities and contributed to the housing segregation pattern of Tucson.
Here’s the issue. And it’s really pretty simple. Homes and parcels in the midtown area, largely around the UA campus, are small enough so that the size of ADU right now being proposed is larger than the home people are living in. And those same neighborhoods are at or above 70% rental. Our housing market is on fire, and real estate investors are chomping at the bit for opportunities to invest in student housing rentals. Decreasing the allowable size will provide a disincentive to those outside investors while continuing to allow 2 bedroom casitas, scaled to the parcels that are right now under attack by UA expansion and student housing developers. It’s really no more than that. It’s not about ‘systemic inequalities’ and trying to segregate our city. That stuff is wrong factually, and it’s offensive to those of us who really are doing something about making Tucson a migrant/minority welcoming city. That takes actual action, not rhetoric.
Some say that the larger ADUs will still have to meet the city setback standards. Yes, but the city gives out setback variances like candy. A DDO is a Design Development Option. These data show that our planning department offers no resistance to requests for these variances. And given that track record, nobody should have any expectation that ADUs will be treated any differently.
You can apply for a variance (DDO) for landscaping as well as setbacks. But this chart clearly shows that’s not what people are applying for. This is about decreasing the size of allowed ADUs on small parcels in order to protect the privacy of adjacent homeowners. That’s not systemic racism. It’s what any homeowner expects the city to do.
We’ll have the reconsideration public hearing on December 7th. That’s not ‘dawdling’ as one opinion writer feels. It’s getting it right the first time, so we’re not positioning ourselves for Prop 207 litigation. I suspect we’ll hear some of the stuff floating around in social media. But the point is much simpler than any of those charges. We’ve been through enough name-calling over the past 5 Donald Trump years. It’s time to stop.
Downtown Holiday Activities
The Downtown Tucson Partnership (DTP) is a coalition of downtown businesses, all joining together to offer holiday deals, holiday spirit and generally attract you down to take part in lots of holiday-specific activities in the downtown core. One very basic item you should consider in order to take full advantage of what’s available is a DTP Gift Card.
The gift card is like a credit card. You can buy it in a variety of increments, and there are dozens of downtown businesses offering deals when you make purchases using one. Use this link to sign up for your card: the Downtown Tucson Gift Card.
Once you’re downtown, you’re going to find a bunch of holiday spirit changes. The DTP is sponsoring the 11th annual holiday window decorating contest. You’ll see businesses throughout downtown with themed decorations in their windows. In addition, there’s the building illumination program. What are the holiday’s without lighting to celebrate? Last year there were 60 businesses involved. There will be more this year. They’ll be up and lit by November 26th. And then 27th is Small Business Saturday. DTP is inviting you to come downtown and use your gift card – or any card – and support our small local businesses. COVID has been so difficult for so many of our local merchants. This is a chance for you to continue your support of them. And simply by making a purchase at a downtown business on that day, you can enter to win a free DTP Downtown Tucson Gift Card. This link gives you the instructions on how to get involved with that: Small Business Saturday giveaway
The downtown Tucson ice skating rink is ready. It’ll be open until January 9th. You can get tickets at the TCC box office. The rink is right there. Parking? No problem. Use this link to find a map that’ll show you your options: Where to park for Tucson Holiday Ice →
Yes, COVID’s a drag. And yes, we can still get out and enjoy the holidays – safely. Please wear a mask when in the downtown stores, socially distance – and get your vaccination.
More COVID Data
This is the national map of hot spots. I mentioned New Mexico. There’s also Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, parts of the upper midwest, and yes, Arizona.
The 14-day change in cases nationally that I had in last week’s newsletter was a 2% increase. That has changed dramatically in the past 7 days. I’m going to add the change in hospitalization rate as well – to dispel the notion that COVID is just a bad cold.
Here are our numbers for the past 14 days. Health care workers throughout the nation deserve better than the group who is prolonging this by staying unvaccinated.
The UA again hasn’t updated their data on the rate of infection. But the Center for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases had this national map – accurate as of November 17th, so it’s much more current than the UA graphs are. It affirms that in Arizona, the rate of infection is “likely increasing.”
I’ll keep the UA graphs just for reference. This week the most recent will become a month dated. Remember, anything above 1.0 means the virus is actively spreading. In the 85719, these data mean that before the recent new surge, every infected person was infecting on average 1.56 other people. Our local numbers have nearly doubled in the past month, so we know the spread rate is escalated from these charts.
You can find the UA data at this site: https://covid19.arizona.edu/dashboard.
I’ll keep my own weekly count going. This is what we experienced in October. It validates the increased infectivity rate numbers shown in the Rt charts above.
Week of 10/4 - 1,964 new cases
Week of 10/11 - 1,521 new cases
Week of 10/18 - 2,233 new cases
Week of 10/25 - 2,746 new cases
Last week the increase continued.
Week of 11/1 - 2,856 new cases
Week of 11/8 - 3,597 new cases
Week of 11/15 - 4,353 new casts
And reminding you, during the first week in June, we had 130 new cases.
Becton Dickinson (BD) Facility
Becton Dickinson is the 120,000 sq/ft planned facility that will attract some high-paying jobs and is also of concern due to its Ethylene Oxide emissions. The Pima County Department of Environmental Quality (PDEQ) will be taking public comments on the operation until December 17th. Ahead of that, on December 7th Nikki Lee and I have a study session for a briefing on what safety measures BD is taking and what options we have with respect to ensuring the public is protected. This graphic shows the location of the plant. It’s adjacent to the approach/departure corridor out by DM. That has been a concern for the Air Force.
The BD plant will be in the business of sterilizing medical equipment. Ethlyene Oxide is used in that process. The PDEQ is looking at federal EtO standards and determining whether the plant meets them or not. If they do, the county’s options will be limited.
Nobody disputes that EtO is bad stuff. A release of just 10 pounds requires near-immediate notification of national reporting centers. That’s one reason the USAF was concerned with the proximity of the plant to their approach/departure corridor. Another concern, though is the proximity to residential areas. The Yellow crosses on this aerial show those. The R1 area is closest to the facility.
This link will take you to the PDEQ site related to their role in permitting. It contains a lot of information, so take your time, and do some homework. The site also has links you can use to submit your comments.
BD & Company Ethylene Oxide Sterilization Facility - Pima ...
https://webcms.pima.gov › cms › One
Harvard Global Health Institute
The Delta Plus variant right now accounts for 10% of cases in the U.K. Last week it arrived in Hong Kong and in Vancouver, B.C. It’s in 8 states in the U.S., plus the District of Columbia. It appears to spread more quickly than Delta, but its severity isn’t significantly different. In fact, I read over the weekend that Delta Plus may result in fewer symptoms than Delta. While that may be a good thing for the person who’s infected, health experts are concerned that it can also cause people to let down their guard and infect others. The thinking; if you don’t feel symptoms, you’re less likely to avoid contact with others. Delta is still by far the primary threat we’re facing.
The Harvard risk map looks the same for Arizona this week as compared to last week. The entire state is in the Red, high-risk level. That trend spread to the midwest and to the upper east states. All the reporting is consistent. Things are worse now than a year ago when everything was shut down. Now it’s not. If we’re just ‘learning to live with it,’ that “it” is full hospitals, worn down medical staff, and over 770,000 deaths from COVID in the U.S. alone. And that number is likely an undercount.
Last week our cases per 100,000 people in Pima County spiked from 36 up to 49. And our 7-day moving average went from 376 up to 517. Both of those measures are worse again this week. The high-risk level starts at 100 new daily cases on that 7-day moving average. We’re headed towards 6x that level.
We have surpassed the infection levels we were so concerned about last November. Today Arizona is ranked #12 nationally in number of new cases p/100,000. And last year, at this time, the UA was not hosting fans at events, classes were virtual throughout the education system, and people were not gathering at ‘watering holes’ on the weekends. None of that is true now. At the Ward 6 office, our hearts go out to the health care workers and front-line workers who have to deal with this. And we hope each of them has taken advantage of the vaccine, so they’re as protected as possible.
You can check what’s going on in your home county by hovering your cursor over it on the Harvard map. Use this link to access it:
https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/
Here’s this week’s statewide COVID map. We now have a vaccine. If you’re one of the vast majority of city workers who understand the severity of these data and have gotten your vaccine, thank you. If you’re in the minority who would rather fight the data and science, that’s an employment decision you’re making on your own.
Events
COMING: FUROSHIKI - A Japanese-style Gift Wrapping Workshop
TUCSON, ARIZONA November 19, 2021 - Yume Japanese Gardens of Tucson presents: FUROSHIKI - A Japanese-style Gift Wrapping Workshop with Miki Pimienta. The workshop will take place on Saturday, December 4, 2021 from 11:00 am - 12:30 pm.
Just in time for the holidays! Come learn how to wrap your gifts in a Japanese-style with traditional fabric furoshiki. An eco-friendly and decorative way of tying your presents, whatever shape or size may be, including wine bottles and fruit baskets.
Price: $25 - all materials included (does not include Gardens admission)
Advanced ticket reservation is required. This is a limited admission event to guarantee social distancing to our guests.
For more information, visit yumegardens.org or email Patricia Deridder at yume.gardens@gmail.com.
Yume sets capacity limits to safeguard visitors and staff and observes Arizona Department of Health Services guidelines for COVID-19 management. Timed admission tickets, purchased online, are required for entry; physical distancing and facial coverings are also required, in all indoor and outdoor spaces.
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Yume Japanese Gardens and Museum of Tucson (www.yumegardens.org) is a non-profit 501 (c)(3) organization, located at 2130 N. Alvernon Way. It features eight examples of classical Japanese landscape design, a replica traditional Japanese cottage, a museum of Japanese art and handicrafts, an art gallery, and gift shop. It also holds seasonal Japanese festivals and classes in Japanese popular arts.
Sincerely,
Steve Kozachik Council Member, Ward 6 ward6@tucsonaz.gov
City of Tucson Resources
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