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Bear Attacks
Ok, this isn’t a Ward 6 thing – yet – but I found it interesting so I’m sharing it with you. It’s a NY Times self-test on how well you’d do if you encountered a bear while out hiking or camping. After taking the test, they advised me to stick to well travelled trails. We are seeing more reports of bears and other wildlife getting close to residential areas, so the quiz isn’t all ‘just for fun’. But have fun with it. It takes about 10 minutes.
Afghan Refugees
When I make an appeal for donations, it is generally to support the work we’re doing with Casa Alitas and the migrant families we see coming at our southern border. This week I’m going to shift that to include needs we are, and will increasingly see with respect to Afghan families and refugees.
Last week Nikki Lee and I met with representatives of the International Refugee Committee. We were specifically interested in how we can prepare to help the work of the IRC as they begin to receive Afghan refugees. All of this situation changes by the day, but here are a few points to consider as you see the images unfold on the news.
There are several ways a person may arrive here as a refugee. One of those is through what’s called a Special Immigrant Visa (SIV). These will be people who were employed “by or on behalf of” the U.S. in Afghanistan. Under this Visa the person can bring a spouse, and their children as long as the kids are under 12 years old. In addition, people will be applying for priority immigrant status for reasons including their personal safety, reunification with family, Afghans who were employed through a U.S. based Non-Governmental Organization, family petitions, or several other classifications. It’s complex stuff, so if you’d like more information I suggest www.unhcr.org. There are several links that’ll guide you through the options.
The IRC is expecting to receive Afghan families under the SIV program. The needs will evolve as the number of refugees grows. The most effective ways to get involved at this stage are through direct donations, either through their Amazon Wish List or by making a cash donation to the IRC Emergency Fund: Make a secure donation.
They’re also starting the process of signing up volunteers. As with the work at the Benedictine, the needs will vary considerably, so don’t assume you have nothing to offer. This link will take you to the IRC volunteer interest form. It’ll get you started on the process.
Prelude to the Vaccine Update
I opened last week with a few emails and quotes from people who are clearly not supportive of vaccinations or masks. I’m doing it to keep the present discussion over COVID in context; that is, the non-science based positions we see on the news are alive and on social media here in Tucson. Below, I’ll give lots of data. Based on these quotes that came to me over the past week, you’ll see it continues to be necessary. Here are some samples of quotes that came in this past week:
“We are also seeing our healthcare workers and first responders being required to get one of the COVID-19 vaccines or lose their job. We had a very brief reprieve from the tyranny and now it’s back in full force from Tucson hospitals and the City of Tucson even though we have open borders and thousands of immigrants coming into the United States with COVID-19 and without being forced to get these COVID-19 vaccines.”
“Common sense would make you question the need to force these vaccines because if your employer is vaccinated and his/her employees are not vaccinated, does it really matter? The reality is that these COVID-19 vaccines do not prevent you from getting or spreading COVID-19"
“America has never masked up or pushed vaccines for the flu so why are we pushing so hard for everyone to get these COVID-19 vaccines? COVID-19 will likely be around for quite a long time like the flu has been.”
Oddly, the same guy who wrote those statements also wrote “I’m not against masks, I’m not against getting vaccines. What I believe in is individual sovereignty. I don’t think government should tell me as an individual what I should do with my body.”
A few comments before moving into the body of the newsletter. No vaccine 100% prevents a disease. But read any responsible medical journal and you learn that vaccines for COVID, as well as other diseases are highly effective in preventing the spread, and in mitigating the severity of the virus they’re aimed at addressing. Think of a world without smallpox vaccinations, or polio. Or COVID. Requiring those vaccines is not ‘tyranny’. It’s responsible public health.
And yes, please get your flu shot. It may not prevent you from getting the flu this season (after all, as with the COVID vaccine, they’re chasing an evolving virus) but it will keep you out of the hospital.
The opening few paragraphs say it well:
By David Cole and Daniel Mach
Mr. Cole is the national legal director of the A.C.L.U., and Mr. Mach is the director of its Program on Freedom of Religion and Belief.
Do vaccine mandates violate civil liberties? Some who have refused vaccination claim as much.
At the A.C.L.U., we are not shy about defending civil liberties, even when they are very unpopular. But we see no civil liberties problem with requiring Covid-19 vaccines in most circumstances.
While the permissibility of requiring vaccines for particular diseases depends on several factors, when it comes to Covid-19, all considerations point in the same direction. The disease is highly transmissible, serious and often lethal; the vaccines are safe and effective; and crucially there is no equally effective alternative available to protect public health.
In fact, far from compromising civil liberties, vaccine mandates actually further civil liberties. They protect the most vulnerable among us, including people with disabilities and fragile immune systems, children too young to be vaccinated and communities of color hit hard by the disease.
Vaccine Update
Last week, the president of the International Association of Fire Fighters (IAFF) put out an email with an attached video in which he urged members to get vaccinated. The majority of our local fire fighters have already done that. But we have over 100 of our TFD employees who have filed either a medical, or a religious exemption, or who are simply saying they’re not interested in the vaccine. I’m opening with the IAFF president’s appeal. It applies to everyone, but I’m hopeful it’ll hit home with some of our own fire fighters who right now are choosing to remain unvaccinated.
The COVID-19 pandemic has been a challenging time for all of us. It has and continues to be very stressful on and off the job for our members and their families. We have now lost 49 members to COVID-19 - eight since August 3.
Our union continues to encourage and strongly recommend that all members be vaccinated to prevent the spread of disease. The reality is, the vaccines work and our union can collectively fight COVID-19 and its variants.
Please watch my video encouraging every member to help prevent the loss of more of our members to this virus by getting vaccinated.
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Watch Video
I am also asking you to join me and film your own video message asking your fellow union brothers and sisters, family members and neighbors to get the vaccine and post, tweet, lead!
Together, we have it in our power to protect each other and our communities and to end this pandemic.
Be You, Be Strong, Be Firefighters!
Edward A. Kelly
General President
Also last week, there were a couple of reports suggesting the Delta variant might be following a cycle medical researchers saw with the first COVID-19 virus. That is, a peak after about 2-3 months, followed by a decline. The decline took place at about the same rate as the climb to the peak did. It’s too new of a phenomenon to say for sure, and they’re suggesting a couple of other factors might be involved with what is being observed. One of those is the nature of the virus – it runs out of new, willing hosts and begins to dwindle in transmission. But the other is the people factor. Our behavior either limits, or expands the host options the virus has. Speculation is that as people see (and saw) the explosion of cases through the media, behaviors change. And as we limit our involvement in large gatherings, get more serious about wearing a mask and distancing, science works and the virus recedes.
This graph shows what the research is now looking at in tracking the 2-3 month cycle. If there’s a message it’s to do the CDC stuff we’ve all been hearing about for the past year and a half. Mask, distance, wash hands – and now, vaccinate.
Last week the CDC reported on a school in Marin County where a teacher went to class while she was exhibiting symptoms. She ended up infecting ½ of the classroom with COVID. You may have seen this chart – it shows where she was, and which students tested positive.
Also note that both of the windows in the room were open, and there’s an air filter up in the front of the room. It speaks to how transmissible the Delta variant is.
Then there’s this local protest against masks in schools. If what you do with your body doesn’t affect others, then cool. Scroll back up to the Marin teacher.
Data and Risk Level
With all of that as background, let’s look at the past week’s risk level maps. First, this is the graph for national COVID cases over the past week. If there’s a levelling off, it’s not apparent in the graph yet:
 Each week I show a 2 week comparison of risk level maps. These come from the New York Times’ research. The color codes are reflected in this gradient. It’s important to note that the risks are shown for unvaccinated people.
 This was the map I had in last week’s newsletter:
 This is the updated map from this past week:
Clearly, the majority of counties nationwide continue to be at extremely high risk for infection for unvaccinated people. The needle didn’t move significantly over the past week. Certainly it didn’t move in a positive direction.
For Pima County, our infection numbers continued to get worse. This is the countywide data I shared in last week’s newsletter:
Last week those numbers had increased considerably. The group who lives on social media may not like these realities, but one thing data doesn’t do is lie. It just is what it is and tells the story as it is.
The fact that our daily case rate continues to increase has to largely be a function of the remaining unvaccinated people. This shows that Pima County as a whole is doing ok, in comparison to other counties state and nationwide. But our hospital beds continue to fill, and the age of those infected with COVID/Delta continues to drop. This chart shows fully vaccinated numbers.
Our statewide population center continues to be the driver in accelerating COVID infections. Last week they were experiencing 2,115 new cases daily with a 7 day rolling average of 47 cases per 100,000 people. Here are their current numbers.
Pinal County is less than 40% vaccinated. Last week their Board of Supervisors voted to refuse a $3M grant from the state that would have helped spread the word about where and how their residents could get a vaccination. That’s not helpful.
Here’s a listing of this week’s mobile vaccination sites being offered by the Pima County Health Department. Due to the holiday, it’s a short week. No cost/no appointments needed.
 This is their list of standing points of vaccine distribution:
Go to the Pima County Health site if you want to find the list of pharmacies that’ll give you a dose, or if you’re a veteran looking to be vaccinated. Use this link: www.pima.gov/covid19vaccine. There is no reason anybody cannot find a vaccination option if they’re looking for one.
Our Pima County case numbers continue to increase week by week. Here’s the week by week look I’ve been tracking since the end of July.
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Week of 7/26 - 827 new cases
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Week of 8/2 - 1,301 new cases
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Week of 8/9 - 1,570 new cases
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Week of 8/16 - 1,737 new cases
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Week of 8/23 - 1,963 new cases
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Week of 8/30 - 2,025 new cases
During the first week in June we had 130 new cases. You’ll see below that the UA is reporting the infectivity rate is once again above 1.0. That is a sign of community spread. And their data hasn’t been updated since August 20th. Students are now back in town. I suspect we’ll get an update on these data next week.
In the past couple of weeks we’ve had some people either come by the office, or email about just nice things they’ve done, or witnessed. In the midst of all the negative, here’s some positive.
Peter emailed us about a ‘cat stuck in tree’ dilemma that worked out in the end. The cat’s name is Beans. He treed himself and couldn’t get down. Peter tried TFD and was told they didn’t come to calls like this. I guess that’s just in the story books. But fortunately a guy named Chris was in the neighborhood – this is Chris and his boom truck.
Chris maneuvered the boom up to near Beans, rescued the cat and brought him down to safety. Kudos to Chris for being willing to step in and help.
Also last week, John stopped by the office. He had seen my note about the butterflies that have returned outside the Ward 6 office. John is a ‘bug with wing’ aficionado – he spent an hour spotting and identifying the critters. Later he let us know he had identified 10 different species of butterfly hovering over our flowers. Come on over – you may see the Queens, but also Fiery Skipper, American Snout, Tiny Checkerspot, and a bunch more. Thank you John for sharing your knowledge.
Jim shares this photo of the landscaping his wife put in outside their home. Note the pink flamingo in the foreground. That wasn’t originally a part of the work, but some anonymous neighbor who appreciated the new vegetation ‘planted’ the bird along with a thank you note. Jim and Penny left the new addition in place so everyone can enjoy the kindness.
In the context of neighbor looking out for neighbor, this phishing email was making the rounds last week. Neighbors sprung into action and alerted others that it was an attempted scam. If you see something that has your neighborhood president’s name, and the body of the email is a little weird (nothing personal to you neighborhood presidents,) check the email address it came from. It’ll look odd – and you’ll know not to open any links. Here’s the body of what was making the rounds last week:
How are you doing? Are you available at the moment? I need your assistance to handle a little project. Can you please handle this for me on behalf of the Organization? The City of Tucson Neighborhood Associations is requesting gift card donations to assist Veterans at hospice care welfare with patients who have been negatively impacted by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Every gift helps provide resources that will stabilize a Veteran and ensure a positive upward trajectory during this critical time.
I have decided to make it a personal duty and I'll be responsible for the reimbursement of cards bought. Kindly confirm if you can help out.
Signed by a neighborhood president
First, there is no such thing as “The City of Tucson Neighborhood Associations’. I had a different phishing attempt 2 weeks ago, so be on the watch for oddball emails.
In the context of neighbors watching out for neighbors, Tres from Sustainable Tucson has formed a group whose goal is to help neighbors put into place community building projects. Things such as pop up parks, little free libraries or pantries, tree planting and that sort of thing. The goal is to build resiliency in our neighborhoods by encouraging us all to collaborate on projects that bring us closer together.
If you’ve got a story about having done projects in your neighborhood, or if you’d like some help pulling one off, contact Tres at tres@sustainabletucson.org. He’ll get back to you and help get your project off the ground.
Suicide Prevention Month
September is suicide prevention month. Sadly, the data show that COVID has impacted suicide rates. Study after study indicate that depression and suicide has been exacerbated by, and during COVID. Especially among adolescents.
On September 22nd, I’m teaming up with the National Alliance on Mental Illness (NAMI) to conduct a forum – virtually – addressing this important issue. We’ll have experts in pediatric psychology from both Banner UMC and from TMC on the call. The forum will be geared primarily to parents and to young people. But we want everybody who may be feeling like they’re in a dark place to join and take part.
The fact that we’re doing this by Zoom will allow people to leave their camera off, and use a fake name on the screen if they’d like to retain their privacy. We’ll begin with a very short presentation by our experts, and then open it up for a discussion. This is intended to be providing a space for people to share, and to ask questions. Mostly, it’s an effort to connect people who may be in a tough situation with experts who can provide some help.
The Zoom will take place from 6pm – 7:30pm. Here’s the link and other information you’ll need to sign in.
Meeting ID: 880 3881 4522
I’ll of course share more on this event as we get closer. If you know of people who can benefit, please share the information. COVID and isolation has caused lots of collateral issues. The partnership in this forum is an effort to provide a safe space for people to address one of the most significant ones.
TEP Substation
We held a special meeting last week to discuss the City’s response to the proposed TEP 138kV transmission line project. I’ve written about it in the past. The local media largely took a pass on reporting the ins and outs and whys of the action M&C took. That’s too bad – this is a big deal issue for the community.
This map shows all of the routes TEP has been considering. Their approach took a different turn both before, and during our special meeting.
 The poles will range from 75’ to 110’ tall. This is a simulation of what they’re proposing for the Campbell/Speedway intersection. You can see the poles and lines criss-crossing the intersection. It gives a pretty stark appearance, leaving me to wonder what they’re really thinking. Unless of course they don’t live nearby and don’t have to live with this in their viewshed.
 Note in the legend that the ‘preferred route’ is the light blue/red 1B. It runs up Campbell/Kino and then turns into Jefferson Park neighborhood. It was preferred until TEP made a presentation to the Corporation Commission line siting committee earlier in the day last Wednesday. This is a portion of what they presented to that committee. Of particular note is the very first sentence in which they assert that ‘a city councilman’ invoked the Gateway Ordinance into the conversation. That Ordinance requires that new utilities be undergrounded.
 TEP filed an appeal to our zoning administrator to see if the Gateway Ordinance really means what it says. I read their appeal and came away with the impression that the lawyer who wrote it couldn’t really believe the argument they were making. It included things such as the term Right of Way doesn’t really mean that at all, but is really referring to the ground next to the ROW. Our zoning administrator must have joined me in thinking that was a head-scratcher. And this section of their submission to the line siting group shows the answer; it does mean what it says.
 As a result of that, earlier in the day of our special meeting, TEP took 1B(Campbell/Kino) off the table, and inserted 5A as their new preferred route. That’s the green line on the map above.
TEP had rejected 5A months ago, for lots of very good reasons. During our special meeting I suggested it is now back on the table as a tactical move, attempting to divide the M&C, and to divide neighborhoods. It was not the best alternative when they rejected it themselves, and it still isn’t.
We not only have Gateway Corridors that require undergrounding for utilities, we have scenic routes that do the same. Here’s the language for both:
 And for scenic routes:
To be clear, Campbell/Kino is not the only Gateway route in Tucson. Others include Oracle, Valencia, S. Tucson Blvd., Alvernon, Golf Links and Kolb. And our Scenic Corridors include Silverbell, Goret, Ironwood Hills, W. Speedway, Anklam, Mission Road, Tanque Verde, Houghton, Old Spanish Trail and River Road. You get the picture – if we had said our Gateway Ordinance was without meaning, all of those roads would be subject to huge new transmission lines being placed above ground. And other utilities would have been given the same opportunity without our even having a seat at the table.
M&C last week told TEP that we reject their Option 5A, the same as they had previously. And that we will take part as a party in the hearings before the line siting committee that are currently scheduled to begin on September 13th. Finally, regardless of which route TEP finally lands on, we’re going to assert the authority of our Ordinances and Plans.
Forever utilities have begun their conversations with the City from a position of assuming we have no voice. With the creation of the new Utility Infrastructure Manual, and now our standing on the shoulders of our existing Gateway Ordinance, we’re saying that in Tucson, we’re not going to let utilities assume ‘Industrial Zoning’ from end to end. These will be conversations where we’re at the table as an equal participant. That’s a change that will matter for years to come.
Late last week, TEP indicated an interest in delaying the upcoming line siting committee hearing. That move happened after M&C had voted to enforce our Gateway Ordinance. It appears the message was delivered, received, and now we may be seeing the start of a more productive exchange.
Film Industry and Tucson/Southern Arizona
From time to time I share a piece in the newsletter about our role in the film industry. Our partners at Visit Tucson are constantly out pitching Tucson and Southern Arizona as excellent options for film location. We’ve got Sonoran desert, downtown urban, and just up the Mt. Lemmon hill we’ve got hill country and evergreens. And a crew doesn’t have to uproot their gear and head to a completely other locale to finish their shoot.
What we lack is a statewide film incentive. But with the help of Peter Catalanotte at Visit Tucson, we’re still attracting films, commercials, and other film-related work that’s bringing millions of new dollars into our community. They’ve got an excellent website up advertising the Visit Tucson “COVID-ready crew” ready to do that outreach.
Locally we’ve got a series of film festivals on the books for this fall. You might want to get some of them on your calendar. All of the local venues have suffered during COVID, and supporting these festivals is a way of both helping the cinema’s get back on their feet, but also sending the message outside of our community that Tucson’s history in the film industry is alive and well – shown through our support of these festivals.
They’re all following safe COVID protocols. I hope you’ll take a moment and give them a look.
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New Variant Strains
At the end of August, the World Health Organization identified a new COVID variant that they’ve right now got classified as a ‘variant of interest’. The CDC assigns levels of significance to the variants that have emerged. There are several variants of interest, and they have been popping up from time to time throughout COVID. But based on what WHO just did with this new one, many in that health organization feel it bears watching.
The levels of significance begin with a ‘variant of interest’. So this is the ‘let’s keep a close eye on this’ level. As the variant spreads and is clearly having an impact it goes to a ‘variant of concern’. That’s what Delta is classed as right now. And if the variant shows signs that vaccines are not effective on it, they move it to a ‘variant of high consequence'. Right now, there are no COVID variants at that level.
The new variant of interest WHO identified is called Mu. It was first found in Columbia early this year and was responsible for their 3rd surge from April through June. At the time they had nearly 700 deaths from COVID, about 2/3 of which involved the Mu variant. In the past week they’ve seen about 14,000 new COVID cases, and Mu accounts for roughly 40% of them. And it is now 13% of the COVID cases found in Ecuador. In Columbia, fewer than 30% of the population has been vaccinated. And according to Dr. Fauci, Mu has shown signs of evading immunity in lab settings.
While it’s not a new Delta in terms of being widespread and deadly, the fact that it’s now labeled as a variant of interest, and that it’s spreading through parts of South America is all the more reason for people to get the vaccination, if only as a way to impact the rate at which this virus is evolving. Once it forms a new variant that is not responsive to our vaccines, we’re back to where we were early in COVID last year.
Harvard Global Health Institute
Above I shared the week by week escalation in COVID infections for Pima County. As Dr. Garcia suggested, it might be peaking. And as he also said, if it’s peaking, that peak is at a dangerously high level. We have over 30,000 newly arrived UA students now interacting around the community. It won’t be until the end of September that we’ll see the full impact – if any – of that.
If we’re at a plateau, it’s high into the risk levels. This is the map I had in last week’s newsletter from the Harvard Global Health folks:
 One week later it looks like this. Nobody calls this progress.
 The Pima County numbers came down just a little in the past week in the Harvard data. We were at 27.1 new daily cases per 100,000 last week, and averaged 284 per day on a 7 day rolling average. Those have reduced a bit to what you see here:
The risk level is still very solidly in the red. Their statewide numbers stayed just about the same from one week to the next; 43 cases per 100,000 population, and 315 new daily cases on a 7 day average basis.
You can check what’s going on in your home county by hovering your cursor over it on the Harvard map. Use this link to access it:
Across the state, we’ve had over 1 million COVID cases since this all began. And we’ve lost over 19,000 of our friends and loved ones to the virus. I opened with a quote from some guy who’s all over social media these days asking why we don’t ‘push’ vaccines and masks for the flu. Well first, we do urge people to get a flu vaccine. And yes, wearing a mask would reduce the spread of that illness too. But this chart shows how many people have died of the flu in Arizona while we’ve been watching COVID kill over 19,000.
COVID kills 19x more people than the flu. Please get your flu vaccination, get your COVID vaccination, wear a mask, and watch for the misinformation that’s being spread.
Here’s this week’s statewide COVID map.
Sincerely,
Steve Kozachik
Council Member, Ward 6
ward6@tucsonaz.gov
City of Tucson Resources
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