A Message From Steve K...01/04/20

The impetus for the EO was what his health director, Cara Christ and he felt was a slow and disjointed roll-out of the medications. Based on the terms of the Order, I’m not sure he has done much other than simply point out that we need a more efficient process. Still, at least he’s aware that this is a hot new commodity, and people don’t want to see the distribution held up, for any unjustified reason. 

Here are the exact terms of the Executive Order. “ADHS” is the Arizona Department of Health Services. 

It’s not at all clear what their ‘allocator model’ is for rapidly making access available. Nothing was spelled out in the EO. The second point in the Order gives the State the right to take over the whole process if they aren’t pleased. I’m not sure taking it away from local health authorities would add efficiency, but the threat is included. The third point is Ducey saying that before say Pima County health sets up an agreement with Walgreens or CVS to be a distribution site, the State is made aware and agrees. In his comments, Ducey said he wanted to be sure that if a private site was being used in one locale, they were signing onto that same deal Statewide. That might work in many cases, but not all rural towns will have the same private providers as larger cities, so the ADHS will need to be flexible. And the final point is requiring health departments to make it public where they are in regard to who is next in line for receiving the vaccine. The distribution will be phased, based on characteristics of groups. 

As of last weekend, the Bloomberg COVID-19 vaccine tracker had this data for Arizona. The 1% vaccination percentage is similar to the nationwide number. 

We’re in Phase 1A right now. There are 2 different types of the vaccine we’re receiving. Pfizer, and Moderna. Pima County initially received a total of 28,000 doses: 11,000 of the Pfizer, and 17,000 doses of the Moderna. They were distributed to TMC, Banner, and to other pre-enrolled community health providers. That roll-out has begun.  In addition, both Walgreens and CVS have received doses directly from the Feds and last week were to have begun vaccinations to residents and staff at long-term care facilities. I’m not sure how the Ducey EO will affect that process since the State wants to be included in those private distribution efforts. As long as they don’t get in the way, I’m fine with them being aware that it’s happening. Just as long as it happens. 

There are between 65,000 and 70,000 front line health care workers who will be included in the Phase 1A distribution, so you can see this is off to a rather slow start. I pulled this graphic from the Pima County Health website. It shows their hoped-for receipt/distribution plan. Through no fault of theirs, we’re already playing catch-up. The Federal program ‘Operation Warp Speed’ was to have sent out 20 million doses before the end of the 2020. As of the end of last week, fewer than 3 million people had been vaccinated nationwide. 

Yes, there’s a typo in their chart. They anticipate 154,050 doses of the Pfizer, not what’s shown. 

I pulled these actual distribution and vaccination numbers from the Pima County Health website over the weekend: 

I was disappointed to see a quote from an old friend from the athletics department wanting her group to be bumped up the priority ladder. There’s an on-line report I get daily called the D1 Ticker. It has news from Division 1 college programs nationwide. Last week, UA women’s basketball coach Adia Barnes was quoted, "WBB is women’s basketball, and HC is head coach."  

Arizona WBB HC Barnes supports student-athletes being among the early recipients of the COVID-19 vaccine, "College athletes should not get it first, but they should get it second or third. For sure, health workers, frontline (workers) have to get it first. But I’m saying before the general public, I feel like college athletes should get it because we’re competing. If you want to have us compete and have a season and be able to play basketball and we’re not in a bubble, I think that we have to get it because of the risk. Or otherwise, you’re going to see games canceled the whole year." 

Scroll back up to the priority list. I’m pretty sure I’m not going to support pushing her, or other student-athletes ahead of anybody listed ahead of the general public. It’s about saving lives before ‘playing basketball.’ 

I’m hopeful that these vaccine updates will be a bunch of good news sections. And I’m hoping they’ll end sooner than later. Lots of lives depend on all of that. Embedded in each of them is my thanks to the health care providers who will be responsible for administering the shots. Too bad they can’t drop it on a sugar cube – many of you will remember the polio vaccines we took ‘back in the day.’ And I’m also grateful for the people driving the trucks carrying the doses, lab workers who are making the stuff, and all others in that supply chain pipeline. There are lots of links in the chain, any one of which can result in delays if things don’t go well. Some, like huge snowstorms back east or in the Rockies, we cannot control. As we watch this all unfold, please continue all of the safety protocols we’ve grown accustomed to. The virus is not anywhere close to being under control. 

UA Reopening 

This graphic shows how we ended 2020. December was by far our most virulent month of the year.  

Between November 1st, when my mandatory testing Resolution was defeated, and the end of the year, we had more cases in Pima County than the rest of the year combined. And the difference, about 13,000, was double the number of any other single month in the year. We also ended the year with over 1,000 deaths from COVID in Pima County. Given that our regional population is just a bit over a million, that figure should be alarming. 

While some of the December numbers include the post-Thanksgiving holiday infections, none of it includes post-Christmas and post-New Year’s. With that in mind, I penned this op/ed that the Star ran last week. The message is that inviting over 35,000 students back to campus is irresponsible during the middle of a pandemic. There are options the UA can, and should implement.  

The spring semester at the University of Arizona is scheduled to begin on Jan.13. The UA is inviting thousands of students who have been vacationing out-of-state back into our community. With nearly 40% of undergrads non-resident, and another 4% international students, that inflow of travelers runs counter to public-health advice being given by responsible public-health experts. 

The UA should delay in-person coursework until COVID-19 infections have stabilized and vaccines are being widely administered. 

We are a week away from seeing the COVID impacts of Christmas travel and family gatherings. At the time students begin arriving back into Tucson, we will then be a week away from seeing the COVID impacts of the New Year’s partying. In the aftermath of Thanksgiving, the entire nation went into the “substantial risk” category as defined by the Harvard Global Health Institute. We should expect nothing less from the end-of-year activities. 

Of the nonresident student population attending the UA, 15% come from California and another 7% come from the combination of Illinois, Washington, Texas and Colorado. California is reporting the highest number of new daily coronavirus cases per capita in the country. Their health-care workers are being asked to place their own lives at risk daily as they try to be both medical provider and family to patients in their care. 

After the Thanksgiving break, the University of Illinois brought back to campus an estimated 35,000 students. That’s about what the UA is inviting back to campus in January. Despite the widespread testing done at Illinois, its COVID cases spiked as its students left for the Christmas break. As was true at the UA, it was large social gatherings that created the surge in cases. 

In Austin, Texas, ICU use increased 62% in the week after Christmas and new hospital admissions went up 106% since the beginning of December. Surges have hit El Paso, Lubbock, San Antonio, Dallas, Houston and Fort Worth. Austin interim health authority Mark Escott warned that even if hospitals find bed capacity, staffing won’t be available because of significant COVID-19 increases statewide. 

In Colorado, county is pitted against county as areas respecting tough COVID protocols push back against adjacent areas that ignore the restrictions. In Boulder County there are outbreaks around the University of Colorado. In nearby Weld County, it’s meatpacking plants with the outbreaks. One Boulder County mayor, Brian Bagley, expressed concern over Weld County residents’ behavior. His City Council considered an ordinance restricting Weld County residents from receiving care at hospitals in their city. Bagley said the Weld County attitude was “our hospitals are full, but don’t worry, we’re just going to use yours.” 

The economy will not rebound until the virus is under control. The financial damage cannot drive the public-health policy decisions. 

Nonresident tuition should not drive public-health decisions at the UA. UA leadership cannot be blinded to the health impacts bringing thousands of students back into our community will cause. Those impacts are not speculation. We saw it in September after the UA reopened. The infectivity rate surrounding campus was 2.22. Every sick person was infecting more than 2 others. The ZIP code around campus was the countywide hot spot. 

UA students can safely study remotely until COVID-19 is more under control and vaccines are more widely distributed. The UA owes that consideration to residents, to health-care workers and to their own students, faculty and staff. 

As I said in a Release the week before that went out, I remain open to working with UA administration on implementation of any of this. But nobody on campus can claim surprise if they move ahead with the planned resumption of classes and in February, hospitals are out of room, and the TCC is an alternate care site. This is a shot of Michigan stadium – it was used for vaccine distribution last week. All large sporting venues are subject to being recruited into addressing this issue. 

Variant Strain 

As if managing the current strain of the virus wasn’t enough of a challenge, it seems to have gotten wise to our efforts and has mutated a bit. I’m sure you’ve seen the new COVID strain is spreading through Britain. Over there, it has resulted in renewed lockdowns, and other European countries have imposed travel bans on flights coming from Britain. It may be too late for those measures though. 

Over the weekend, it was reported that this new strain has popped up in both Colorado and in California. Both states I mention in the UA op/ed above as being areas from which many our non-resident students are going to be traveling when they return. We’re now a little over a week away from the school inviting them to fly back to Tucson for the spring semester. The new COVID strain has also been found in Florida. We will receive non-resident students from there as well. 

There is good news about this new strain of COVID. First, it does not appear to be more deadly than the existing virus. And it does appear to be responsive to the vaccines that are now coming out. So whatever mutation has happened, the science folks are at least comfortable that we won’t have to alter our vaccination process in order to arrest the virus. What is troubling though is that this new strain appears to be significantly easier to transmit to other people. That means all of the safety measures we’re already taking become even more important to continue, and to be serious about adhering to. 

On New Year’s Eve night, I was receiving a series of texts from a couple of bar owners who were complaining about our curfew, suggesting that it was ‘the last nail in the coffin’ for their businesses. Given the topic, I found that to be an interesting metaphor for them to use. I’m very sorry that it’s not safe for people to congregate in bars until 2 am. But it’s not. I’m more inclined to respond to Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health epidemiologist Bill Hanage who said ‘the overall picture is pretty grim.’ I imagine he was not out partying in a bar on New Year’s. 

Texting and Driving 

With the start of the new year, the State Texting and Driving law takes precedence over our local ordinance. When they adopted theirs, they allowed local laws to remain in effect for a year. That has now expired. Texting and driving will now carry a significant fine. Under our law, it didn’t. 

On a side note, if you see former State Senator Steve Farley out and about, thank him for this law. If it hadn’t been for his advocacy over the past several years, I doubt the State would have come around.  

Even though they call it ‘hands free,’ you are not allowed to game the system by perching the phone on your shoulder to talk. This graphic is from the State website and it pretty much lays out the intent of the law. 

I’m still in touch with the two families out in Oro Valley who lost their kids due to a distracted driver rear-ending them. We’re still hoping for a just outcome. Please understand that what may be a temporary convenience for you can instantly become a lifetime tragedy for others.  

And this quick note – NASA did some work looking at the effects of alcohol and found that in some people, as little as a half a beer can cause impaired driving. True confessions – I'm a lightweight. There is no question that I’d be one of those people. Please take seriously the responsibility you have to others on the road when you get behind the wheel. We’re in the process of adopting safe streets policies, but at the end of the day, there’s an element of personal responsibility.

January 8th Memorial 

It was January 8th, 2011 when Tucson experienced our second mass shooting event. The first was the UA College of Nursing back in October 2002. Four people were murdered in that incident. Ten years ago this Friday, 6 people were killed and another 14 others were wounded by the shooter out at the Congress on the Corner event hosted by then-Representative Gabby Giffords. This week, as the Memorial is nearing completion, the event commemorating the shooting will be held virtually. 

Beginning at 9:55 am, the bell ringing will begin, honoring each of those who were killed or wounded. I know KVOA will broadcast the ceremony live, and at 6:30 pm, they’ll also have a 30-minute special titled “January 8th - ten years later.” And if you’re more of a social media person, Pima County is streaming the event live on  Pima County Facebook page.    

If KVOA is including progress on gun control during the past decade, that’ll be a quick segment during their show. There has been virtually no progress related to Arizona gun laws since the shooting. 

People, Communities and Home Investment Plan (P-CHIP) 

On Tuesday, we’ll get an update on the P-CHIP program that's being administered by our Housing folks. There will also be two public input meetings held this week. If housing and our programs surrounding that topic are of interest, please either follow our discussion during Tuesday’s study session or plan on taking part in one of these virtual events:  

• Wednesday, January 6th from 6 pm until 7 pm 

• Thursday, January 7th from 11 am until noon.  

 You can see the draft plan and also sign up for either of those meetings by going to https://p-chip.tucsonaz.gov. We’re scheduled to adopt a final plan on January 20th.  

UA Student Housing Study 

In the fall of ‘19, the UA conducted a study of student housing stock, both on and off-campus. As a part of that, they surveyed students to see what they value when considering where to live. During one of our project meetings, the guy who was going to present it to UA President Robbins proudly told me about it and shared some of the findings. Thanks to Dylan Smith of the Tucson Sentinel for prying the study loose from the UA. When I first asked for it, I was told ‘it’s meant for internal use only.’ Well, taxpayer money funded it. Therefore it’s meant for use by those who paid for it.  

The study is useful as we continue to see developers want to push student housing towers out into the community. For the past several years, I’ve been saying the UA should be working with developers to place new towers within the campus footprint. That dialogue evidently led to this study. 

The study indicates that the UA is considering another public, private partnership (P3) to add another 1,000 beds. That’s the sort of arrangement that ended up with the Honor’s College over near Feldman’s and North University neighborhoods. As a part of this study, they evaluated both undergrad and graduate student demand for on-campus housing, as well as the kinds of amenities they’re after and the rents they’re willing to pay. The assumption is that if students’ expectations are too rich for the UA, off-campus sites funded through the large developers we’re familiar with will be the default. 

Remember, the UA is contemplating a P3. The terms of that deal will have to meet 3 criteria, each of which was spelled out in the study. Those include ensuring any new housing project is both financially and physically accessible to ‘a diverse population,’ that the terms of the deal should cover all of both the develop and the future operating costs, and of course, “any new housing project should not risk the University’s financial health.” One factor that’s key for me is there is no mention of the impact on the surrounding neighborhoods.  

Some of the market data they found is interesting. This graph shows that within a mile radius of campus, there was only an average occupancy rate of just over 5%. The rentals most highly sought after are the studios and 4 bedroom suites. That means towers are being filled. We know that from the contacts I made with the towers over by Tyndall when I did the COVID testing. They’re nearly full, even in a pandemic. 

COVID and Depression 

In last week’s 2020 look-back, I mentioned the social isolation zoom we hosted with Pima Council On Aging early in the pandemic. It was clear then that being alone was having a significant impact on seniors. Over the past 9 months, that has extended to many more people, in all age categories.  

Last weekend I saw a study commissioned by CNN, in which 60% of seniors reported feeling lonely. But the report also showed “over a third of all people surveyed report some level of depression due to the isolation brought on by COVID.” Depression can lead to serious outcomes. If you’re one of that group, please monitor your thoughts and feelings and do not hesitate to reach out for some help. 

The State has awarded behavioral health contracts to for-profit entities. That sector often operates under different ‘rules of engagement’ than a non-profit will. And that can limit the resources available to people who need a touch. Since the pandemic began, workers in the behavioral health profession have seen increasing demands on their time and energy. That is especially true of those out in the non-profit world. We at the Ward 6 office extend a special gratitude to those doing that very under-covered, but important work. They’re certainly ‘front-line,’ and I expect them to be included as a priority classification for the purposes of vaccinations. 

The media has been reporting on ICU bed capacity. Last week, right before New Year’s, The Sentinel reported there were 55 COVID patients in hospitals waiting for beds to open up. But finding information on behavioral health resources is not on anyone’s radar screen. I went to the Arizona Department of Health Services website, and there’s nothing clearly listed for behavioral health, depression or mental health resources. People in need of those kinds of services are unlikely to sit in front of a computer and do a lengthy search. Harvard Health says this about the main causes of depression: 

Having a health condition or serious illness can cause significant worry about issues such as your treatment and your future. Stress buildup. A big event or a buildup of smaller stressful life situations may trigger excessive anxiety — for example, a death in the family, work stress, or ongoing worry about finances.  

All of that is happening to people all around us because of COVID. The national suicide prevention hotline is 800.273.8255. Please keep an eye out for each other. The impacts of COVID are not all found on ventilators in ICU units in our local hospitals. 

COVID Risk in Arizona 

We ended the year with a month in which our totals were 3x that of the next highest month in the year. We’ve begun 2021 on a pace to exceed that in January. Here’s the data for January 1st through the 3rd:  

• January 1st, 1,082 new cases 
• January 2nd, 1,084 new cases 
• January 3rd, 1,084 new cases.  

Since daily numbers, especially over the weekend, can be unreliable, I computed the 7 day average for Pima County. We’re now running an average of 685 per 100,000 population new cases per day. To get out of high risk, that number needs to be less than 100 per 100,000. We have a long way to go.  

On Sunday, I did a story with KVOA’s Austin Walker about the County curfew. In order for the curfew to end, our cases per 100,000 need to drop below 100. This graphic from the County website shows in unmistakable terms, we’re not there. 

For the current Rt value (infection rate) to Rt.live.    

Pima County Health Department portal:  https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/426baca70718453a9f63a4f85e545d8b 

The national CDC site: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/index.html  

For the NY Times data sets, use this link:    

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/23/upshot/five-ways-to-monitor-coronavirus-outbreak-us.html 

You can find the Harvard data on this site: Harvard Global Health Institute Key Metrics   

The State Department of Health site is at this link: www.azdhs.gov. 

Track the advice on public schools through this link: https://www.azed.gov/communications/2020/03/10/guidance-to-schools-on-covid-19/  You can find all the dashboard information at the “School Reopening Public Health Benchmarks” spot. And here’s the UA daily update link. www.covid.arizona.edu. When it opens, click ‘See Latest Updates,’ and it’ll take you to a screen with the updated data. 

Thanks for continuing the glass crushing project. And thanks to our Environmental Services folks who came out on the weekend to pick up the glass. You can still use the blue barrels for glass, or bring your empties by the Ward 6 office.