A Message From Steve K...12/07/2020

On Friday, Tim Stellar called and asked me about the curfew we just adopted. I’ll write more about that below, but my comment to Tim was that,, at least for me, I didn’t support it because I felt it’d be a COVID game-changer. The hospitals want more strict measures – those will have to come from the State. My support of the measure was to link arms with the hospital folks in sending a message to the Governor that this is out of control and he needs to act. Moving the time back to 10 pm was an effort to reduce the impact on restaurants. But COVID is spreading as a result of behavior. And if we moved the needle just a little with the curfew, I’m ok with that. Showing our on-going support for our health care institutions was a significant reason for my support. 

So keep that map in mind as you read. As I mentioned to the Pima County Interfaith group last week, this situation isn’t going away anytime soon. And in March, there’s no way I’d have predicted that in December, I’d be writing that sentence. 

The curfew we adopted last week runs from 10 pm until 5 am. It will not cure COVID, it might move the needle a bit, it will not tank the economy, and it did not deserve the heated response it generated. It sent a message. A needed and important message to the State, on behalf of hospital workers, and those of us who watch the news every night in disbelief as we continue to see large gatherings in bars and other private spaces. The message is embedded in the numbers. The numbers represent people. 

When the curfew was first presented to me, I was told the hospital association wanted us to pass an 8 pm curfew, and that they were going to advocate that the Governor do the same. That turned out to be partially accurate. In fact, the hospital association said our proposed 8 pm curfew didn’t go far enough to be effective. They also want a return to the Statewide shelter in place Ducey had in effect late last spring. We do not have the authority to do that locally. When I was first told they supported the 8 pm curfew, I felt we should certainly support the health industry. When I learned, they didn’t feel it would be effective on its own and that they were lobbying for even more strict measures, other factors needed to be weighed. 

In the run-up to the vote, I spoke to representatives from the hospital industry, Pima County, and to numerous members of the restaurant and bar industry, as well as other retail. Pima County had a voluntary 10 pm curfew in place. Why 10 pm? Because they didn’t want to crash the restaurants. The managers of the restaurants I spoke with each said they could live with a 10 pm time frame, but needed some time to burn off some of the perishable goods they had just received. I also had contact with the theaters. Having to stop showing movies at 8 pm would effectively kill their business. Few people go to a movie that begins before 6 pm. And theaters are selling limited seating tickets anyway. The 10 pm curfew worked for them as well. Bars? They want to keep selling until 2 am. If we impose the 10 pm curfew, that last 4 hours of possible spread is the small move in the needle I hope to see. It is not nearly what the hospitals are after. That would need to come from the State.  

When I spoke with Paul Cunningham ahead of the meeting, we agreed that 10 pm with a 72 hour lead-in time made sense. I stand by that. With the numbers headed in their current direction, and with the hospitals advocating for even more stringent measures, in solidarity with them, we couldn’t do nothing. I believe we landed on a good compromise that sends the right message to not only the State, but to the public; COVID is out of control. Consistent with Pima County and CDC recommendations, please stay home when you don’t have to be out. 

The picture on the left is of a medical team turning a COVID patient from the supine position over to the prone position. It takes a minimum of 5 staff to do it – and it happens in ICU’s multiple times per shift. The photo on the right is a busy bar. We sent a message to the folks on the right that our priority is with the folks on the left.  

I’ll have more data below, but our Statewide positivity rate last week was 15% - and trending up. Our rather symbolic curfew aligns with the message from the hospital workers.  

Predictably, the day after we adopted the curfew, Governor Ducey held a press briefing. In it, he announced yet another Executive Order (EO.) Actually, he issued 3 more EO’s. That makes 60 this year. Credit to Mayor Romero – she convened a meeting of the governing body, we discussed options, and finally decided on a course of action. That’s how public policy should work. 

One EO was likely unnecessary in that it guarantees free access to a vaccine when one becomes available. That’s already the plan from D.C. But if he feels empowered by verifying it through an executive edict, then fine. 

The next new EO relates to permits for large public gatherings. He continues to fail to define what such a gathering is, and we’re already not issuing permits for large public gatherings. So the new requirements he includes in this EO were irrelevant to how we’re doing business. Here’s the operative part of the EO:

It changes nothing we’re doing. 

The final EO from last week relates to outdoor dining. We’re already doing this as well. In fact, I’ve written about extending outdoor premises more than once in this newsletter. I’ll give the Governor credit for maybe trying to fix one problem with adopting outdoor dining. When we’re giving an extension of premises for a restaurant, we cannot also extend their ability to sell alcohol unless the outdoor dining is immediately adjacent to the restaurant. You cannot have customers exit the building, cross a sidewalk, and then enter the new outdoor dining area. If he was trying to fix that, then ok. But this is all he says in the new EO: 

So it appears to say we can now give the extensions, even when they’re not immediately adjacent to the restaurant, but according to the new Executive Order, the ability to consume alcohol still needs to be within 60’ of the building. That’s something, but it really isn’t going to be the savior of restaurants. If our curfew was largely symbolic, this certainly is as well. 

Credit where it’s due. Ducey added $60M for hiring more health care workers. The trouble is that every State in the Nation is trying to hire more health care workers. There aren’t enough. That’s why early in the pandemic, the UA medical school allowed some near-to-graduation doctors to begin serving a bit early. There was a nursing shortage before the pandemic. The same is true of hospital technicians. I was glad to see him recognize the need for more funding, but that doesn’t magically create a new supply of available workers. 

Individual behavior is so key. Please do your part. 

Community Support 

While all of this is happening, there are multiple ways the City and other partners are stepping up to help businesses, non-profits, and families make it through. We’re all waiting to see if Congress will come together and get some more relief out their door. In the meantime, here are some of the actions already happening in support. 

From the City’s CARES allocation, we’re right now at about $50M in community support. This chart breaks down the amounts we’ve allocated, and the general categories the money has been directed to. For each category, there are people behind the description who are working directly with applicants and helping to get the money into their pockets. I’m grateful for all of those workers – most of whom never get thanked, but all of whom deserve to be recognized for the humanitarian work they’re involved with. 

When I write about us waiting on another round of Federal relief, these are examples of the sorts of needs that money is meeting. 

Catholic Community Services – Rent Assistance 

Another long-term partner of ours at the W6 office is Catholic Community Services (CCS.) We’ve been working with them for several years, helping move migrant families through Tucson and onto their next of kin. It’s the work many of you took part in at the Benedictine. Now CCS is working to get rental assistance CARES Act money into the right hands. 

This is money the City allocated out of our CARES allotment. The CCS program has income qualifications. Use this chart to see if you qualify before contacting them: 

Eviction Update 

Last week I met with members of the Pima County Interfaith Council. They had seen what I wrote in last week’s newsletter about the eviction tsunami headed in our direction and wanted to share thoughts on ways we can prepare for it. Or avoid it. There are no magic bullets, but right now is the time to be sharing your thoughts with the State. For more on that, please look back at last week’s newsletter and review what State Senator Kirsten Engle and others are advocating for with Ducey.  

Eviction Lab is a website that tracks evictions nationwide. This link will take you to their site. 

https://evictionlab.org/rankings/#/evictionsr=United%20States&a=0&d=evictionRate&lang=en  

The most recent data they have is from 2016, but it will, at the very least, give a sense of how widespread this problem is. And COVID is only making it worse. I cut off this graphic at the top 25. Why? Because Tucson is #25 nationally in evictions. That lends even greater importance to the work Kirsten is trying to do at the State level. Here are the rankings: 

If you’re inclined to write the Governor about this, some of the important changes he should make in the current eviction program include extending the eviction moratorium, and easing the process for people to make an application for rent assistance/eviction prevention dollars. I’ve heard him brag about how much money the State has earmarked for eviction assistance, but the reality is millions of dollars are sitting in that account unallocated. If it’s not out the door, it’s not helping people. 

During my call with Tony and Ken from the United Way, they also brought up their work on helping people with tax returns. That’s starting early next year, and that money will also help stabilize people’s living situation. But the need for broader change is more immediate than waiting on a tax return. Reach out to Kirsten (kengle@azleg.gov) and she can give you the specifics on how you can help her up at the Capital.  

Genna Update 

I’ll keep these updates current as things in Genna’s case change. Last week the family received yet another piece of heartbreaking news. The case that has lingered for over 8 years was ‘vacated.’ There were conflicts of interest involving the recently elected County Attorn. Hence, ey, so the Court had to move it to another jurisdiction for trial. 

Back around the time of the primary election, I wrote that the eventual winner of the election had received a campaign contribution from the killer. She returned it, but the fact that it had been offered and accepted was one factor in vacating the trial to a new jurisdiction. The other is that the new County Attorney has family ties to one of the people who conducted a psychiatric evaluation of the shooter. Together those factors have caused Pima County Attorney’s Office to have to step away from the trial. The family was given two equally unattractive options. 

The City of Tucson has a standing agreement with the State through which they can alert us at any time that they need the TCC as an alternate care facility. It will not surprise me if that call comes before Christmas.  

Here’s a little more data that shows the spike we’re experiencing. In the first 6 days of December, we’ve had 5,307 new cases in Pima County. In March, April, and May, we had 2,278 total cases – combined for all 3 of those months. In August, we had 4,746 in the entire month. In September, we had 4,342, and in October, we had 2,892 total cases.  

In the past week, we’ve exceeded all of those totals. 

What about fatalities in Pima County? This graphic tells the story. Remember, the December totals are just the first week of the month. And that week does not include the spike we’ll see around mid-month when the Thanksgiving numbers start to appear.  

Vaccine Tracker 

The NY Times put together a site that allows you to see where you might be in line when a COVID vaccine comes out. I know it’s sort of guesswork, but it’s fun to see generally where you’ll be in line when they start distributing the vaccines. When I punched in my data, this is what I got from the site: 

Well, not particularly at the front of the line, but I guess that’ll give me time to see what side effects others are having before I step up for my shot.  

 It’s not scientific, but if you’d like to see where you are in line,  click here. You’ll also see what categories of other people are in line with you. 

Small Cell Poles 

Last week I met virtually with several members of the Verizon management team. The topic was how we get a voice in their pole site selection before it’s all a done deal. Also included in the meeting were some of our Transportation Department leadership. I’d describe it as having been a productive exchange. 

Right now, many of you are painfully aware that you can wake up in the morning and find this at the corner of your block. It’s the construction of a new small cell pole. There will be thousands of them scattered around the City. The companies do not have to alert you as to location, timing, work plan, or any of the items I generally cover with contractors and residents when we do pre-construction meetings. Thank the State legislature for the fact that we have no voice. 

Right now, Verizon has identified all of the sites they’re planning on installing poles for the rest of the year. Currently, they conduct ‘preliminary site selection’ meetings with City staff only for poles going into historic districts. I’ve asked for those meetings to take place for all poles, and for them to be expanded to residents as well as staff. We got part of the way to that solution.  

Verizon will be submitting their proposed 2021 ‘Build Plan’ in January. That is the preliminary look at where they want to place poles during the next calendar year. They’ve committed to passing that list along to me, letting me go through it and pick out the locations that merit a preliminary site conversation with our office, and with you. There will be some planned for major arterials that won’t affect residents. But the Verizon management said where I pick out those that will be sensitive; they’re, totally up for a meeting before the site is finalized, and making sure the location isn’t going to cause some of the issues we’ve recently seen. They’re not required to do this, so I appreciate their willingness to invest that extra step and being a good corporate community partner. 

I’ve asked Transportation staff to now reach out to the other providers and get us scheduled for meetings with them as well. It does a little bit of good to have one provider agreeing to this. But that’s negated if 3 or 4 others just continue along the same path they are on now. So, some progress. Hopefully, the Verizon competitors will see them leading in this and follow suit. 

The state legislature will be meeting in the caucus soon to decide which bills to include in the upcoming session. Returning local voices to this issue must happen. Let your State legislators know this is a big deal locally. 

COVID Trends in Arizona 

If you’re a health care worker, one of the most concerning data points we’re tracking is hospitalizations. This graphic comes from the Arizona Department of Health Services website. It tells a pretty clear story. And remember, it does not include what will be happening in 1-2 weeks when the Thanksgiving impacts begin to hit the people who work in the system. 

Sustainable Tucson 

 This month’s Sustainable Tucson meeting will have more of a holiday party flavor than the usual lecture/dialogue on all-things-environmental. It’s all going to be family-friendly, so log into the meeting this week and have the family gather around. There will be a variety of activities. 

The meeting will be a combination of music, dance, storytelling, some drama, and even some cooking demonstrations. I know, it’s not what this group usually does, but COVID is bringing out the creativity in many of us, so they’re sharing that side of their brains this month. 

The meeting is Tuesday, December 8th, beginning at 6 pm. Log into it by going to https://meet.google.com/izw-crbr-utr.  

What’s Happening at Colleges Around the Country 

During last week’s UA press briefing, they talked about the recent addition of on-line Ashford College to the UA’s offerings. It’s a controversial entre into virtual schooling using an institute that was sanctioned for violating standards and other issues. It’s not COVID-related, so I won’t cover it here. The Grand Canyon Institute put together a good paper on the controversy. You can find it at this link:  

https://grandcanyoninstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GCI_Policy_Analysis_University-of-Arizona-Global-Campus-Critical-Ethical-and-Legal-Issues-for-Consideration_12_3_2020.pdf 

There continues to be COVID news from schools across the Country, though. At East Carolina U, the Chancellor and some Senior Administrators will be taking furloughs to help the school financially. They’ll be furloughing 23 administrators, including the Chancellor, Chief of Staff, Vice-ChancellorsVice ,Chancellors and Deans. The furlough will be for 10 days between December and the end of the fiscal year. It’s supposed to save about $250K. That’s roughly the salary of the #2 guy in UA athletics. I hope it saves some of the line workers’ jobs at their school. 

At UNC, Chapel Hill, several dozen faculty members have reached out to Administration at the school and advocated for remote learning in the Spring. Their reasoning is that when students return after the break, the campus is likely to be overwhelmed by COVID transmission. They cited a similar decision recently made at the U Michigan in Ann Arbor. This is a quote from the UNC faculty letter: “We call on UNC administrators to put public health first, to show courageous leadership, and to accept the realities that the unchecked coronavirus has created for us all.” Right now, the University’s spring semester plans call for housing students in only single occupancy dorm rooms, conducting both entry testing and regular surveillance testing. It’d be great to see something similar with respect to off-campus students coming back into Tucson. You can read the full letter from the UNC faculty here: an open letter  

Last Tuesday, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine published some recommendations on testing for Colleges. In it, they were careful to remind administrators that Colleges and Universities are not a bubble in the middle of a community. This language comes from their report: