Blue Light Recognition
Last week we had the highest single day COVID count since all of this began. On Thursday, for the first time the U.S. had over 100,000 new cases, and there are over 50,000 hospitalizations for the first time since August. And since that first 100,000+ day, 3 more have followed in succession.
And all over the country, we continue to see scenes like this erupting over people objecting to wearing a mask:
This blue light recognition is once again for our health care workers – all over the country – whose job is only made more difficult by this sort of irresponsibility. An image these geniuses are ignoring is one like this:
We at the Ward 6 office thank you for what you do.
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Mandatory Testing
Two weeks ago the Mayor and City Council joined the UA in rejecting a Resolution encouraging the school to require COVID testing to all students prior to coming back to town after the holidays. Prior to that 5-1 vote, President Robbins’ representative told the M&C that the Resolution was pandering and unconstitutional. I assume he meant I was pandering to residents in proposing it.
Last Monday several things happened during the UA press briefing on COVID. One was that they announced the current Rt values for both Pima County and the area around campus is now over 1.0. Remember, that value indicates the infectivity rate we’re seeing. Below 1 means you may be sick, but you’re not infecting anyone else. Over 1 means the disease is spreading. This graphic came from their presentation. Both Robbins and Dr. Carmona were ‘alarmed’ at the increases.
In addition, they presented this table. It shows that over the Halloween weekend, 18 large parties had to be broken up by the UA/TPD policing team. As you can see, 5 of them had between 20 and 49 people, and 7 had over 100 people. Another ‘alarming’ situation, although it shouldn’t have been surprising.
And near the end of the briefing, President Robbins announced they will have mandatory testing for the spring term. He said they want to see daily testing for everybody when that level of testing is ready, but he’s ready to make it a requirement for when the students come back to school. That’s for both on and off campus students.
As I told the M&C, and as I shared with you last week, schools all over the country are doing mandatory testing. Up the road, at ASU they have random mandatory testing. If you don’t submit your test results within 2 days, their Dean of Students pays you a visit. They lock you out of your campus accounts if you don’t submit a daily health check for 2 straight days. That’s emails, online class assignments, financial aid information, tutoring, and more. Same Constitution – the UA figured it out and announced that last week. I shared that flip in position with the Star reporter who had covered the UA press briefing meeting, but you didn’t see any of that in her story. I thought the change in posture was as interesting as the fact that they’re now looking at mandatory testing.
The other item of note – to me, personally – was that at the exact moment President Robbins was announcing the mandatory testing idea, I was receiving a phone call from the UA announcing that my job has been eliminated. That’s after 32 years.
I do not believe the change in their position would have happened without having been pressured by the public positions I’ve taken. I’m glad for the community that they’re finally going to do the responsible thing.
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Public Safety Pension
This could get really wonkish, so I’ll make it short and not with a lot of numbers. The very quick message is that we made a decision last week that will benefit the community years down the road. As I said during our meeting, it’s typical for elected people to do things that will help during the next election cycle. Our investment decision will help well past that time horizon.
The public safety pension rules are set by the State. They set the rates, we pay the bill. Our current annual payment is north of $70M, and is headed up every year for the next 20 years. This chart shows the obligation is going to break the General Fund bank if we don’t act.
What we did was roughly the analog of refinancing your home loan with lower interest rates. We’re taking on sizable debt – likely north of $600M – and locking in interest rates that will allow us to stabilize those payments.
The process is the sale of what’s called Pension Obligation Bonds. We’ll sell bonds and put them into a Trust account that we manage. It’ll earn interest, and we’ll use that fund, along with some remaining General Fund portion to make our pension payments. The source for paying off the new bond debt then becomes our General Fund. The risk we take is that at some point the interest we’re earning in the Trust becomes less than the interest we’re paying on the bond debt. Here’s where it all gets in the weeds, but the result will likely be us capping our pension payment at around $90M, and actually earning more in interest than we’re paying on the debt.
That’s as far into that weed patch as I’ll go. We’re protecting a future City Council from having to pull over $200M from its General Fund just for a one year payment on the public safety pension. You won’t likely see anything in the media about this, and year after year you wouldn’t see the details of the effects of the decision addressed in M&C budget discussions. But it’s a big deal from the standpoint of the long term financial stability of the City. Thanks to the City Manager and our Finance folks for working with us on getting this done.
COVID Trends in Arizona
The Trump Administration’s Dr. Birx made this statement last week: “We are entering the most concerning and most deadly phase of this pandemic. This is not about lockdowns – it hasn’t been about lockdowns since March or April. It’s about an aggressive balanced approach that is not being implemented.”
During the same press briefing in which UA’s Robbins announced the mandatory testing, this graphic was shared. It shows the continued upswing in Arizona.
That was early in the week. Now the fatality number is over 6,100 for the State. True to Birx statement, Arizona had 183 more deaths since Monday, and in Pima County we lost another 17 friends and loved ones.
Here’s a chart for the first week of November. There isn’t a day that indicates we’re seeing this tail off.
Please respect your friends, family and those you pass by out in public by wearing a mask, keeping your safe distance, and avoiding large gatherings. Even large family gatherings have resulted in significant heartbreak. One comment Robbins has made over and over that is accurate is that it’s people’s behavior that will make or break us as we work to slow down the virus.
These next two items are about fighting in support of the aesthetics of our City. Utilities are ignoring the clear voice of the people who are rejecting the planned thousands of new utility poles that will be popping up in our Rights-of-Way all over the City.
Tucson Electric Power Upgrades
The public process for the new power lines TEP is planning on installing is continuing this coming week. There will be a webinar on Monday, November 16th beginning at 6pm. To log into it, go to the project website at https://www.tep.com/kino-to-demoss-petrie/. There will be an opportunity for people to share their input and to ask questions.
This is the proposed alignment of the new power line system. It will run through the Kino-Campbell corridor and connect an electric substation at 36th and Kino to one at Grant and I-10, and then to one at Banner UMC north of the UA campus. There are some nuances yet to be decided, but the main artery is up Campbell/Kino.
TEP will have to come to M&C for what’s called a Special Exception Land Use approval. That only relates to the substation located at Banner. And it only relates to that precise site, not any of the aesthetics of the proposed alignment that will terminate there. Last Wednesday I had a study session item in which I raised several points that I believe TEP needs to roll into their plans. I was pleased to have Cunningham’s strong support. I’ll summarize the points I made.
First, even TEP concedes there will be a drop in property values when their 100’+ tall poles go up near residences. They estimate about a 9% drop in value. At no time have they calculated that lost value, and litigation for recouping a diminution in value into their project costs. Here’s a real seat-of-the-pants low ball of what that might look like; 1,000 houses valued at $150,000, losing 10% of that value. That’s $15,000 x 1,000 = $15M. While testifying before the Arizona Corporation Commission (ACC) about this project in 2018, TEP said “we also realize that in order to get a project done, at times you do have to go with the more expensive option.” That more expensive option may be undergrounding some or all of this project.
While in front of that same Corporation Commission committee in 2018, TEP discussed undergrounding ‘distribution poles’ - those are the smaller ones that you already see around the City. Why would they do that? Because, as they testified, “the input we got from the public was ‘we don’t want any more lines.’ “ They’re hearing the same thing now. If there’s a compromise to be had, some level of undergrounding has already been identified by TEP as one possible conversation point that has not happened during the public meetings to any productive level.
As to the point I made about possible litigation over lost property value, TEP addressed that as well. During that 2018 ACC subcommittee meeting, one of the committee members said “it’s considerable that property owners would say that their remaining property has been made less valuable, and might want to claim damages due to the diminution in value, which are severance damages. That’s conceivable?” TEP responded, “Oh, absolutely, yes.” Ok, then let’s include those costs into the cost estimates for undergrounding and see if the impact they’re threatening on all ratepayers is real, or to what amount it’s reduced when all costs are factored in. Certainly, if there’s litigation, that cost will be spread among all ratepayers – just as the cost for undergrounding will be. And TEP told the ACC subcommittee that increase in cost will be “very small” because it’s absorbed “into our overall rate base.”
There has been no public discussion about how overgrounding the new lines might affect future streetcar routes. Also, TEP suggested that unless someone else paid for it, they cannot do undergrounding. If that’s the case, we need to slow down this whole process and address that in whatever legal way is needed. This is a unique project that will impact the City for decades. As planned it degrades the Kino Parkway corridor – the ‘Welcome Mat’ we invested millions of dollars into for people coming into town from the airport. And it will invite significant property value loss further upstream, which only means more costly litigation.
Share your thoughts during the upcoming webinar. I believe there’s much more of a conversation to be had than what we’ve heard to date.
Small Cell Poles
Similarly, the cellular companies have successfully lobbied the State legislature and pretty much eliminated our local voice from the location of the new small cell poles you see going up around town – perhaps even in front of your house. If you see Blue Staking happening in a Right of Way, the odds are it’s in preparation for laying fiber to connect a new small cell pole. They're about 35’ in height. And when build-out is complete, there will literally be thousands of them scattered around the City.
I’ve shared pictures of the work these things involve in previous newsletters. The companies have been given the right by the State to simply pick a spot and show up with their heavy equipment and start excavating. In midtown, we’ve seen them dropped in the middle of water harvesting basins, directly in front of homes, and always without any public conversation before the locations are selected. Verizon, T-Mobile, ATT – they want your business. What they don’t want is for you to participate in deciding on the location of their poles.
During the study session item I requested on this, I asked for 2 things to be done. One is for the Mayor to pen a letter on behalf of each of us and send it to the State leadership. The message; we want our local voice back. Amend the law and eliminate the local pre-emption. In addition, our transportation department issues a permit for each of the poles. We cannot simply refuse to issue the permit. There’s a meter built into the State law and if we haven’t issued the permit by the time it runs out, it’s assumed the permit was approved. What I asked was that “the first thing out of transportations mouth” when they get a permit request for one of these is ‘have you worked with the Ward office and residents?’ Staff will now alert each Ward office when they get a permit request for a small cell pole. We can’t stop them, but at least with that we will have some time to reach out to the company to discuss possible alternate sites. Moving the new pole 50’ in one direction may preserve somebody’s view of the mountains.
In both the TEP and cell pole items I knew going into them that our options are limited by State law. And yet, just rolling over isn’t in my DNA. My staff and I will continue advocating for the changes I’ve outlined above. We appreciate your being alongside us throughout.
Campbell/6th Project
And speaking of ‘out of scale,’ last week the developer and his team had their first official neighborhood meeting related to the planned new development for 6th and Campbell. It was zoom, and many of us asked questions, or simply made points.
Here’s a graphic of what’s being proposed. In short, it’s a mixed-use development planned for the SW corner of Campbell and 6th. The existing small retail shops will be demolished. On the far east end, they plan some retail use that’ll be 50’ in height. That’s about the same as the Sam Hughes Place building across Campbell. Then they’re talking about a hotel (the peach-colored block) at about 70’. That’s approximately the height of the newly built UA parking garage, also shown in the graphic. And finally, they’re proposing a 140’ student housing tower. The developer, Scott Cummings pushed back on that description. And yet when I asked if they’d consider reducing the scale of the whole project, and eliminating ‘group dwellings’ (student housing) he said they need the density to make the project financially viable. Group dwelling is the zoning descriptor that allows multiple people sharing a common kitchen, and other living areas, rented by the bed. It’s student housing.
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Mr. Cummings said he has already been in talks with the UA about this and they’re supportive. But this isn’t an Honors College situation yet where the UA avoided our zoning laws by buying the land and entering into a separate deal with the developer. The City doesn’t regulate ‘State owned land.’ At the time Honors was being run through the process, by-passing the City-regulated public input, I told President Robbins that the maneuver was a great way to ruin public trust. Right now, 6th/Campbell is subject to our rules and processes.
Cummings said that he does not have the financial capacity to pull off this project on his own. That means a large out-of-State 3rd party will at some point step in and get involved. We have those student housing companies operating over by Main Gate. They’re COVID hot spots, we’ve had excessive amounts of trouble with bottles being tossed off from balconies, and working with their management teams back in Atlanta, New York or Texas has been frustrating. Inviting more of this, adjacent to both Rincon Heights and Sam Hughes doesn’t make sense.
I know that President Robbins has been eyeing the land just north of this site to build a hotel. That’s back over on the UA campus in what is the former practice football field. Pushing it over to where it’s functionally straddling two midtown neighborhoods, and adding the twice-as-tall student housing is going to be a tough discussion.
I’ll share more on how this one evolves as it begins to move through the public process. For now, the white blocks you see on the right hand side of this image below represent how the project will scale out, as compared to existing homes.
What’s Happening at Colleges Around the Country
More on mandatory testing and where else it’s being implemented.
I grew up in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Go Blue! And now Blue is going to more online classes, as well as tightening up COVID-related restrictions for next semester. Their President called for any student who doesn’t need to be on campus to stay at their home residence. And any student who needs to come onto campus will be required to take a COVID test first. All of this is the result of protests and strikes over their reentry policy, tension with their faculty, and finally a mandatory stay-at-home order for all undergrads. UM President Mark Schlissel said the changes “reflect what we’ve learned and what we must do to keep our community safe.” I believe he means the wider Ann Arbor community, not just the on-campus one.
Last week I shared that the U Wisconsin had to cancel a football game due to COVID infections. This week they’ve got 27 positive test results – and another cancellation.
And you probably heard that the UA vs Utah football game that was scheduled for last Saturday was also canceled. Too many Utah players had either tested positive or were unavailable to play because they were subject to the contact tracing restrictions. The game will not be made up since the Conference didn’t leave any open dates in the schedule.
Above I shared that ASU will lock you out of your campus accounts if you don’t do your daily health check, and they’ll send the Dean of Students to pay you a visit if you don’t get a COVID test. Boston U. is also imposing discipline for students who are overdue to be tested. That includes banning them from campus. All of their students who either live on campus or who come onto campus for classes are required to be tested twice per week. No Constitutional issues there. Per their Dean of Students, the ramping up of the discipline is the result of “a large number of mainly off-campus students” not doing their required tests, or not conducting the required daily symptom checks. Oh, and if BU students gather in groups of more than 10, they’re subject to being suspended for the rest of the semester.
This is a BU tweet announcing some of the changes:
I opened last week’s newsletter with a picture of the tent health care facility outside the El Paso Memorial Hospital. This week, UTEP closed their rec center and is urging both students and faculty to avoid coming to campus ‘wherever possible.’ Both the Rec Center and campus dining are being closed for a minimum of 2 weeks.
Both hospitalizations and COVID cases have risen dramatically in El Paso recently. The exception to these changes? From their President Heather Wilson: “UTEP athletic teams competing in their championship season will continue to practice and compete under the NCAA and Conference USA stringent testing protocols.” The UTEP football game against North Texas has been canceled due to COVID, despite Wilson calling El Paso “a safe place to play.” Huh?
Another Texas school has lost a staff member due to COVID. Margarita Rodriguez was an employee at Rice U for nearly 40 years. She contracted the disease several weeks ago and passed away last week. Her son continues the family tradition and is still working for Rice.
And Grace College lost 20-year-old Bethany Nesbitt due to a pulmonary embolism. That’s basically a blood clot in the lungs. She had also tested positive for COVID. While not the cause of her death, the County coroner said it was a contributing factor.
This is a tweet from her brother. We hear a lot about COVID fatality numbers being undercounted because of situations such as this. The true impacts of the virus, even among the young are still not well understood.
Right now we’re seeing increases in numbers throughout the County. In Pima County, if you see a business that’s not complying with COVID rules you can report it here and their Consumer Health Food Safety team will look into it. For out of control parties, call 911, the UA COVID party hotline at 282.3649, or email to redtag@tucsonaz.gov.
Sustainable Tucson
Sustainable Tucson continues their virtual monthly meetings this week with a presentation titled “Towards a Zero Waste Life in Tucson.” We’re not alone in this quest. Early Friday, Nikki Lee and I participated in a Zoom meeting with colleagues from ASU and the City of Phoenix that centered on this topic. We discussed renewable natural gas, glass recycling and came away with ideas about how to partner with other jurisdictions once we get past our current baby steps in the Tucson recycle business.
The hosts for the Sustainable Tucson meeting will be the Co-Chairs of their Zero Plastics Waste Committee Sharia Des Jardins and Kevin Greene. The goal is to share with you what that committee is doing, and how you can get involved.
Be Kind: Halloween Contest
I’m giving the Be Kind this week to my staff. Or I could just call them a bunch of softies for not wanting to pick a winner in the Halloween contest. Instead, the W6 staff says ‘everybody gets a trophy!’
Thanks to the Tucson Zoological Society for partnering with us on the prizes – each winning family will get free passes to the zoo. And drum roll – here are the entries, which in this case are also the winners.
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   I guess I have to agree with my group. Setting aside a couple of our ‘conflicts of interest,’ picking 2 out of that group would have been pretty tough. Congratulations to all the winners. We’ll be in touch to get you your prizes.
Reid Park Zoo
Prep work is beginning on the next phase of the zoo expansion. It caused some concerns last week, so as this week’s Local Tucson item, I want to clear up some of the misunderstanding.
Here’s the graphic of the next expansion phase. If you’ve been to the zoo recently you know there’s already work happening around the entry. This part will be on the west perimeter of the zoo.
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What raised concern was the draining of the south pond that’s right now outside the zoo. The contractors are doing soils testing, and the pond will be opened back up sometime this week. Construction on the full project will begin sometime next spring. As you can see from the graphic, eventually the south pond will become the newly expanded tiger habitat. It will give the tigers about 5x the space they currently have. The pond is not ‘being drained to build a building.’ Following construction, the north pond will still be outside the zoo fence line and totally available to the public – and to the critters who use it for habitat.
Prior to the 1/10 cent sales tax question that went to the voters a few years ago, the Tucson Zoological Society (TZS) held over 100 public outreach meetings to share the expansion plans with the public. Also, last November the Parks staff did another outreach, and also took a survey to gauge the public’s feelings about the expansion. That survey showed 92% support for the work. While it will undeniably be removing what is now some public open space and the south pond, it’s going to be integrated into the zoo expansion project, the intent of which is to enhance the habitat experience for all of the animals. And it’ll enhance the public experience while visiting.
Finally, all of the animals currently using the south pond are being taken care of. Some will be moved to the north pond. Some, like the ducks and birds, will continue to navigate the park freely. I see ducks inside the zoo perimeter all the time, so they pretty much freewheel around the place. And some, such as turtles are being relocated with the assistance of rescue agencies and the Game and Fish Department. TZS and Parks are being very sensitive to the welfare of all of the wildlife involved in this expansion project. You can view the full master plan on the zoo website at www.reidparkzoo.org.
Pima County COVID
Last week I shared that the zip code around the UA campus was the number 1 location in Pima County for COVID. It still is. And the southside 85719 is still #2. Both zip codes had around 100 new cases reported last week. And the off-campus high rises are not subject to mandatory testing yet so those buildings aren’t adding to those totals.
Here are the top 5 COVID zip codes in Pima County as of last weekend:
The ‘19 is the UA area, ‘06 is due south of there, ‘56 is next to the San Xavier Mission, ‘46 is over in Drexel Heights by the Pascua Yaqui land, and ‘13 is south, incorporating South Tucson. Clearly, this issue is right now a UA and southside problem. And to be very clear – there are lots of vulnerable people in each of those zip codes. Pima County continues to offer free testing, and all of the CDC/State/City/County guidelines for being safe are still in effect.
The Harvard Global Health risk assessment now has the State of Arizona either in the Orange or Red category:
 What does the Country look like?
 And what do those risk levels mean in terms of how we are being asked to respond?
Earlier I included the comment from Dr. Birx about this disease now entering another ‘deadly phase.’ The Harvard data and risk assessment levels confirm that. We haven’t seen the full impact of the Halloween partying in Pima County. And Thanksgiving is coming. Please be responsible – think of the health care workers, your friends, family, and those of us who you may pass in the grocery store who may have hidden vulnerabilities you don’t have, but that could cost somebody their life.
And here are the numbers from AZDHS for 2 weeks ago.
 ...compared to the current numbers. Scroll back and forth and look at the increases. I opened the newsletter by recognizing the hard work our health care workers are performing. Every one of them I’ve spoken to, and every quote I read or hear from a health care professional is expressing significant concern over the direction of these numbers, and what we might see develop over the upcoming holidays.
And for your own research – these links:
For the NY Times data sets, use this link:
The State Department of Health site is at this link: www.azdhs.gov.
And here’s the UA daily update link. www.covid.arizona.edu. When it opens, click ‘See Latest Updates’ and it’ll take you to a screen with the updated data.
Sincerely,
Steve Kozachik
Council Member, Ward 6
ward6@tucsonaz.gov
City of Tucson Resources
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