Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 @ 8:55 AM MST by Malloy, J.
Rain Adding Up; Thunderstorms Possible Today...
Key Outlook Takeaways:
Heavier rain threat countywide due to scattered thunderstorms today with additional localized amounts up to 1.00”-1.25” affected by thundershowers. Otherwise, 0.25”-0.75” is forecast.
Widespread rain since last night has led to saturated soils and heightened runoff/water ponding concerns today through the evening hours.
Rain threat ends this evening.
A slow weather disturbance moving through central Arizona has combined with a subtropical air mass to create an unsettled environment. As a result, a soaking rain for many locations has extended beyond the overnight hours and continues this morning over south-central AZ, including the Phoenix metropolitan area. For the short-term (now through early evening), increased instability associated with cooler air aloft moving overhead plus any daytime surface heating will add a countywide scattered thunderstorm threat starting later this morning. Rain chances then abruptly end overnight as the low pressure circulation pushes eastwards and exits the region. Daily temperatures in the lower deserts range between the low 50s and low 60s. Winds are generally light and variable but may be locally gusty near heavier thundershowers.
Overall, the long duration light to moderate rainfall rates so far are allowing amounts to add up throughout the County but has favored the Gila Bend area, North Scottsdale, East/Southeast Valley portions, Wickenburg area, and northern Pinal County where widespread 24-hour 0.50”-1.00” values have been observed (as of 8:30 AM). Rest of Maricopa County has reached up to 0.25” with localized 0.50” noted. Desert soils are becoming progressively saturated and the scattered thunderstorm threat today providing enhanced rainfall rates does pose a localized hydrology concern. Training of heavier showers is possible given the slow nature of the weather disturbance. We’ll be monitoring the runoff/flooding threat through the day and issue updates as necessary for any forecast zones adversely affected by heavier rain. As rainfall amounts increase in general today, be on guard for the possibility of normally dry washes having flowing water. Additionally, temporary ponding of water in low spots/roadway crossings is likely for locations that may be impacted by heavier thundershowers.
We’ll have more details on the extended forecast in tomorrow’s Weather Outlook...
