Alaska Department of Health & Social Services Weekly Case Update May 16-22, 2021
Decreasing
Statewide transmission Rt 0.8
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Intermediate
Statewide alert status 8.2
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Adequate
Hospital capacity
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Low
Test positivity 1.7%
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53.7% Alaskan 16 years and older vaccinated
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Red- quickly increasing, Rt>1.2
Orange- increasing, Rt 1-1.2
Yellow-decreasing, Rt<1
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Red- 14-day average case rate per 100,000 people >10
Orange- 5-10
Yellow- <5
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Red- <3 weeks until beyond capacity
Orange- 3-6 weeks
Yellow- >6 weeks
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Red->5%
Orange- 2-5%
Yellow- <2%
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At least one shot Estimated AK population 16 and older of 569,699 from census.gov (American Community Survey 2019)
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Brief Status Report
- The statewide average daily case rate decreased to the lowest level in eight months, corresponding to an intermediate alert status for the first time since September 2020.
- The decrease in average daily case rate mirrors the national decline in new cases. Although testing has decreased in recent weeks, test positivity remains low, indicating a true decline in cases.
- Since January 1, 2021, >98% of all COVID-19 hospitalizations in Alaska have been among people who were unvaccinated.
- Vaccination rates have slowed considerably in recent weeks; locations with lower vaccine coverage are expected to see relatively higher SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates.
- There has been a steady increase in the number of infections caused by the B.1.1.7 variant of concern.
- Nearly 54% of Alaskans aged 16 years and older have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. 54% of the State/IHS vaccine allocation so far has been administered.
- Alaska is currently the twenty-sixth most vaccinated state per capita for adults aged ≥18.
- As of May 12, all Alaskans aged ≥12 years are now eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine. The COVID-19 vaccine is available at no cost.
- Starting June 1, anyone, including nonresident tourists, arriving at the Juneau, Fairbanks, Ketchikan, or Anchorage airports will be able to get a dose of vaccine free of charge at the airport.
Case Trends and Predictions
- 384 cases were reported in Alaskans last week. This is a 19% decrease from the week before.
- Case rates continued to increase in the Southern Southeast region. Small increases were also seen in the YK Delta and Interior regions.
- Case rates decreased in 7 of the 11 behavioral health regions this week.
- The estimated statewide daily growth rate as of May 24 is -4.1% and new cases are expected to halve every 17 days based on current modeling.
Regional Case Trends
Behavioral Health Region
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Case rates Apr 11– Apr 17
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Case rates Apr 18– Apr 24
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Case rates Apr 25– May 1
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Case rates May 2– May 8
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Case rates May 9–May 15
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Case rates May 16–May 22
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Anchorage Municipality
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21.0
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17.2
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13.0
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11.2
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8.2
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5.4
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Fairbanks North Star Borough
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18.3
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37.1
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50.1
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33.5
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15.6
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8.3
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Interior Region except Fairbanks
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17.1
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20.7
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17.6
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15.0
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14.0
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19.4
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Juneau City and Borough
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9.4
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7.4
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7.2
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8.8
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7.2
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3.8
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Kenai Peninsula Borough
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20.1
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19.3
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12.4
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9.0
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7.8
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6.8
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Matanuska-Susitna Region
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48.2
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40.6
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28.1
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22.4
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14.8
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8.7
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Northern Southeast Region
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11.6
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9.5
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3.5
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4.9
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7.7
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5.6
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Northwest Region
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4.5
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7.4
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7.6
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6.3
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5.0
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3.2
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Southern Southeast Region
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5.8
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11.9
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19.9
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32.9
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54.2
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58.2
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Southwest Region
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9.3
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5.1
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4.3
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3.3
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2.5
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3.2
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Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta Region
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11.6
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12.4
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14.6
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7.2
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6.9
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9.6
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Statewide
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22.0
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21.8
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19.4
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15.3
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11.2
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8.2
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Vaccination Status
Reported vaccinations as of May 24, 2021.
Regional Vaccine Trends: Percent of Alaskans aged 16+ who have received one or more dose of vaccine.
Borough/Census Area
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As of May 9
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As of May 16
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As of May 24
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Aleutians East Borough
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61.1%
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66.7%
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77.7%
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Aleutians West Census Area
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57.4%
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58.1%
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63.1%
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Anchorage Municipality
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55.5%
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56.3%
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57.3%
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Bethel Census Area
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69.9%
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70.4%
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71.4%
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Bristol Bay plus Lake and Peninsula
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76.1%
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77.4%
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78.1%
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Chugach-Copper River Census Area
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56.9%
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57.3%
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58.0%
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Denali Borough
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55.6%
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56.0%
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58.8%
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Dillingham Census Area
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52.8%
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53.1%
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53.8%
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Fairbanks North Star Borough
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42.6%
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44.0%
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45.2%
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Haines Borough
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66.2%
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66.6%
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67.2%
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Juneau City and Borough
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71.4%
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72.6%
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74.0%
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Kenai Peninsula Borough
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43.6%
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44.2%
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45.0%
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Ketchikan Gateway Borough
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58.5%
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59.4%
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61.2%
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Kodiak Island Borough
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62.3%
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62.7%
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63.7%
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Kusilvak Census Area
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69.8%
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70.7%
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72.2%
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Matanuska-Susitna Borough
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35.7%
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36.5%
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37.3%
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Nome Census Area
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73.6%
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74.4%
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76.1%
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North Slope Borough
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34.4%
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34.7%
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35.3%
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Northwest Arctic Borough
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57.8%
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58.3%
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59.4%
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Petersburg Borough
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75.8%
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76.2%
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77.0%
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Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area
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49.2%
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50.1%
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51.8%
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Sitka City and Borough
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70.4%
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71.1%
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72.1%
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Skagway Municipality
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78.7%
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78.7%
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79.2%
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Southeast Fairbanks Census Area
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30.8%
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31.2%
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31.6%
|
Wrangell City and Borough
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58.5%
|
58.7%
|
58.9%
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Yakutat plus Hoonah-Angoon
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71.8%
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72.6%
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73.7%
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Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area
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75.2%
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75.6%
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76.1%
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Statewide
|
51.7%
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52.9%
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53.7%
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- To schedule your vaccine appointment visit covidvax.alaska.gov or call 907-646-3322. The call line is staffed Monday-Friday from 9AM-6:30PM and 9AM-4:30PM on weekends.
New Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths
- During the week of May 16 through May 22, 2021, 384 cases were reported in Alaskans. This is a 19% decrease compared to the week prior, for a total of 67,199 cases.
- Cumulative hospitalizations increased to 1,553 with 4 reported as occurring this week. Hospitalization reports often lag and only 1,542 hospitalizations were reported at this time last week, so there are 11 hospitalizations newly reported this week including ones that began during previous weeks.
- No deaths were reported this week; however, four deaths that occurred in earlier weeks are newly reported (362 total). It is common to take more than a week for a death to be reported, and deaths that occurred during May 16-May 22 may be reported in the future after death certificates are reviewed.
- 14 new nonresident cases were identified this week for a total of 2,800 cases.
Vaccine Breakthrough Cases
- Vaccine breakthrough (VB) infections of COVID are those detected in a person who is more than 2 weeks beyond their second dose of a 2-dose series or the only dose of a 1-dose series. As of May 1, 2021, CDC changed reporting of VB cases to be only those associated with hospitalization or death.
- From January 1–May 17, 2021, Alaska has recorded one death and eight hospitalizations resulting from a VB infection. These counts are provisional and subject to change as more data are compiled. In that same time frame, a total of 20,618 cases, 462 hospitalizations, and 98 deaths were reported. 98.3% of all hospitalizations to date were people who are unvaccinated.
- Specimens from VB infections (regardless of severity) are prioritized for sequencing and described in the weekly Alaska Genomics Report
- CDC released an MMWR this week characterizing the current epidemiology of VB cases for the nation
Variant Tracking
Variants of Concern
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Cases Identified
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Change From Last Week
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First Identified in Alaska
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B.1.1.7
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141
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+52
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20 December 2020
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P.1
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16
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+3
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8 February 2021
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B.1.351
|
4
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+1
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20 March 2021
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B.1.427
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4
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+1
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30 March 2021
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B.1.429
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114
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+4
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24 December 2020
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Variants of Interest
|
Cases Identified
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Change From Last Week
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First Identified in Alaska
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B.1.526
|
12
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+5
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4 February 2021
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B.1.525
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1
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0
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16 March 2021
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P.2
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4
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0
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27 January 2021
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Health Care Capacity
- On May 24, 17 Alaskans with confirmed COVID-19 were hospitalized and 2 were reported to require a mechanical ventilator.
Total Confirmed COVID-19 Beds Occupied
Cases by Week Reported and Age Group
Cases by Week Reported and Race
Cases by Week Reported and Region
Additional informational resources:
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