COVID-19 Alaska Weekly Case Update: May 16-22, 2021

Clinical Update

Alaska Department of Health & Social Services Weekly Case Update
May 16-22, 2021

Decreasing

Statewide transmission
Rt 0.8

Intermediate

Statewide alert status
8.2

Adequate

Hospital capacity

Low

Test positivity
1.7%

53.7%
Alaskan 16 years and older vaccinated

Red- quickly increasing, Rt>1.2

Orange- increasing, Rt 1-1.2

Yellow-decreasing, Rt<1

Red- 14-day average case rate per 100,000 people >10

Orange- 5-10

Yellow- <5

Red- <3 weeks until beyond capacity

Orange- 3-6 weeks

Yellow- >6 weeks

Red->5%

Orange- 2-5%

Yellow- <2%

At least one shot Estimated AK population 16 and older of 569,699 from census.gov (American Community Survey 2019)

Brief Status Report

  • The statewide average daily case rate decreased to the lowest level in eight months, corresponding to an intermediate alert status for the first time since September 2020.
  • The decrease in average daily case rate mirrors the national decline in new cases. Although testing has decreased in recent weeks, test positivity remains low, indicating a true decline in cases.
  • Since January 1, 2021, >98% of all COVID-19 hospitalizations in Alaska have been among people who were unvaccinated.
  • Vaccination rates have slowed considerably in recent weeks; locations with lower vaccine coverage are expected to see relatively higher SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates.
  • There has been a steady increase in the number of infections caused by the B.1.1.7 variant of concern.
  • Nearly 54% of Alaskans aged 16 years and older have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. 54% of the State/IHS vaccine allocation so far has been administered.
  • Alaska is currently the twenty-sixth most vaccinated state per capita for adults aged ≥18.
  • As of May 12, all Alaskans aged ≥12 years are now eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine. The COVID-19 vaccine is available at no cost.
  • Starting June 1, anyone, including nonresident tourists, arriving at the Juneau, Fairbanks, Ketchikan, or Anchorage airports will be able to get a dose of vaccine free of charge at the airport.

Case Trends and Predictions

  • 384 cases were reported in Alaskans last week. This is a 19% decrease from the week before.
  • Case rates continued to increase in the Southern Southeast region. Small increases were also seen in the YK Delta and Interior regions.
  • Case rates decreased in 7 of the 11 behavioral health regions this week.
  • The estimated statewide daily growth rate as of May 24 is -4.1% and new cases are expected to halve every 17 days based on current modeling.

Regional Case Trends

Behavioral Health Region

Case rates
Apr 11– Apr 17

Case
rates
Apr 18– Apr 24

Case
rates
Apr 25– May 1

Case rates
May 2– May 8

Case
rates
May 9–May 15

Case
rates
May 16–May 22

Anchorage Municipality

21.0

17.2

13.0

11.2

8.2

5.4

Fairbanks North Star Borough

18.3

37.1

50.1

33.5

15.6

8.3

Interior Region except Fairbanks

17.1

20.7

17.6

15.0

14.0

19.4

Juneau City and Borough

9.4

7.4

7.2

8.8

7.2

3.8

Kenai Peninsula Borough

20.1

19.3

12.4

9.0

7.8

6.8

Matanuska-Susitna Region

48.2

40.6

28.1

22.4

14.8

8.7

Northern Southeast Region

11.6

9.5

3.5

4.9

7.7

5.6

Northwest Region

4.5

7.4

7.6

6.3

5.0

3.2

Southern Southeast Region

5.8

11.9

19.9

32.9

54.2

58.2

Southwest Region

9.3

5.1

4.3

3.3

2.5

3.2

Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta Region

11.6

12.4

14.6

7.2

6.9

9.6

Statewide

22.0

21.8

19.4

15.3

11.2

8.2

Vaccination Status


Reported vaccinations as of May 24, 2021.

Regional Vaccine Trends: Percent of Alaskans aged 16+ who have received one or more dose of vaccine.

Borough/Census Area

As of May 9

As of May 16

As of May 24

Aleutians East Borough

61.1%

66.7%

77.7%

Aleutians West Census Area

57.4%

58.1%

63.1%

Anchorage Municipality

55.5%

56.3%

57.3%

Bethel Census Area

69.9%

70.4%

71.4%

Bristol Bay plus Lake and Peninsula

76.1%

77.4%

78.1%

Chugach-Copper River Census Area

56.9%

57.3%

58.0%

Denali Borough

55.6%

56.0%

58.8%

Dillingham Census Area

52.8%

53.1%

53.8%

Fairbanks North Star Borough

42.6%

44.0%

45.2%

Haines Borough

66.2%

66.6%

67.2%

Juneau City and Borough

71.4%

72.6%

74.0%

Kenai Peninsula Borough

43.6%

44.2%

45.0%

Ketchikan Gateway Borough

58.5%

59.4%

61.2%

Kodiak Island Borough

62.3%

62.7%

63.7%

Kusilvak Census Area

69.8%

70.7%

72.2%

Matanuska-Susitna Borough

35.7%

36.5%

37.3%

Nome Census Area

73.6%

74.4%

76.1%

North Slope Borough

34.4%

34.7%

35.3%

Northwest Arctic Borough

57.8%

58.3%

59.4%

Petersburg Borough

75.8%

76.2%

77.0%

Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area

49.2%

50.1%

51.8%

Sitka City and Borough

70.4%

71.1%

72.1%

Skagway Municipality

78.7%

78.7%

79.2%

Southeast Fairbanks Census Area

30.8%

31.2%

31.6%

Wrangell City and Borough

58.5%

58.7%

58.9%

Yakutat plus Hoonah-Angoon

71.8%

72.6%

73.7%

Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area

75.2%

75.6%

76.1%

Statewide

51.7%

52.9%

53.7%

  • To schedule your vaccine appointment visit covidvax.alaska.gov or call 907-646-3322. The call line is staffed Monday-Friday from 9AM-6:30PM and 9AM-4:30PM on weekends.

New Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths

  • During the week of May 16 through May 22, 2021, 384 cases were reported in Alaskans. This is a 19% decrease compared to the week prior, for a total of 67,199 cases.
  • Cumulative hospitalizations increased to 1,553 with 4 reported as occurring this week. Hospitalization reports often lag and only 1,542 hospitalizations were reported at this time last week, so there are 11 hospitalizations newly reported this week including ones that began during previous weeks.
  • No deaths were reported this week; however, four deaths that occurred in earlier weeks are newly reported (362 total). It is common to take more than a week for a death to be reported, and deaths that occurred during May 16-May 22 may be reported in the future after death certificates are reviewed.
  • 14 new nonresident cases were identified this week for a total of 2,800 cases.

Vaccine Breakthrough Cases

  • Vaccine breakthrough (VB) infections of COVID are those detected in a person who is more than 2 weeks beyond their second dose of a 2-dose series or the only dose of a 1-dose series. As of May 1, 2021, CDC changed reporting of VB cases to be only those associated with hospitalization or death.
  • From January 1–May 17, 2021, Alaska has recorded one death and eight hospitalizations resulting from a VB infection. These counts are provisional and subject to change as more data are compiled. In that same time frame, a total of 20,618 cases, 462 hospitalizations, and 98 deaths were reported. 98.3% of all hospitalizations to date were people who are unvaccinated.
  • Specimens from VB infections (regardless of severity) are prioritized for sequencing and described in the weekly Alaska Genomics Report
  • CDC released an MMWR this week characterizing the current epidemiology of VB cases for the nation

Variant Tracking

Variants of Concern

Cases Identified

Change From Last Week

First Identified in Alaska

B.1.1.7

141

+52

20 December 2020

P.1

16

+3

8 February 2021

B.1.351

4

+1

20 March 2021

B.1.427

4

+1

30 March 2021

B.1.429

114

+4

24 December 2020

Variants of Interest

Cases Identified

Change From Last Week

First Identified in Alaska

B.1.526

12

+5

4 February 2021

B.1.525

1

0

16 March 2021

P.2

4

0

27 January 2021

Health Care Capacity

  • On May 24, 17 Alaskans with confirmed COVID-19 were hospitalized and 2 were reported to require a mechanical ventilator.

Total Confirmed COVID-19 Beds Occupied

Cases by Week Reported and Age Group

Cases by Week Reported and Race

Cases by Week Reported and Region

Additional informational resources: