El Niño: what could it mean for the UK?

Earlier in October, the National Emergency Briefing team hosted a webinar on El Niño’s potential impacts on weather and food supplies worldwide. Professors Paul Behrens, Hayley Fowler and Mike Berners-Lee discussed the uncertainties and raised concerns about the UK’s preparedness for extreme weather and food supply disruption.

El Niño is a natural Pacific climate cycle, occurring every 3 to 8 years as weakening trade winds allow ocean warming and heat release into the atmosphere. The panel described this year’s event as a ‘Super El Niño’, warning that disrupted monsoon rains could affect global food supplies and that temperatures could rise further in 2027.

The panel said the event had already broken heat records ahead of an expected December peak. They warned that failed monsoon rains affecting India, Indonesia, Australia and parts of South America could disrupt food supplies. They also suggested that global temperatures in 2027 could rise by a further 0.2°C, reaching 1.7°C to 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels, above the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target.

Impact on UK weather

The panel discussed forecasts of a stormier, wetter autumn and winter, which could help replenish drought-depleted reservoirs. However, heavy downpours on hard, dry soils could pose severe flood risks to property, transport and food production. They highlighted recent extreme weather across the Mediterranean and concerns about the UK’s infrastructure preparedness.

The panel also stressed the uncertainty of these forecasts in uncharted climate territory: the expected rain might not materialise. They cited the 1877 El Niño, described as the strongest recorded, which brought below-average winter rainfall. With UK rainfall reported in the webinar at just 10% of normal levels up to October, they warned that further dry weather could threaten food production in 2027.

Impact on food supplies

In previous El Niño cycles, stronger harvests in some regions have offset weaker harvests elsewhere. The panel warned that 2027 could be worse, particularly alongside geopolitical disruption involving the war in Ukraine and the Strait of Hormuz. They cited a World Food Programme estimate that 49 million people could be pushed into acute hunger, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia.

The UK’s reliance on food imports and just-in-time supply chains makes the effect on food prices difficult to predict. The panel discussed possible food inflation ranging from below 6% to the low double digits, depending on geopolitical risks, with higher energy prices potentially adding to affordability pressures. They highlighted possible price rises for rice, palm oil, cane sugar, coffee, cocoa, avocados, blueberries, grapes, asparagus and bananas, alongside wider knock-on effects. UK farmers also face drought-depleted fodder supplies, high input costs and a third year of below-average wheat yields, according to the panel.

The panel said the National Audit Office was examining food security and supply, and that Defra had increased staffing to assess supply chain risks. However, they considered these resources insufficient for the scale of the challenge.

The panel’s recommendations:

• Conduct a full audit of food imports.
• Establish local resilience plans.
• Encourage more plant-rich diets to improve agricultural efficiency. The panel said 84% of agricultural land is used directly or indirectly for animal production.
• Increase the focus on flood mitigation.
• Increase the focus on food input and storage.

Given the lack of visibility and the risk to supply chains, the panel recommends that residents should slowly stock up on basic food supplies ahead of this winter.

For more information, including local film screening dates, visit the National Emergency Briefing website.