Hurricane Season: Almost Over

By Climate Adaption Initiative Committee Facilitations Team

With this year’s Atlantic Hurricane Season set to end on November 30th, 2021, it is important to take time to reflect on 2021’s 21 named storms and 7 hurricanes (Elsa, Grace, Henri, Ida, Larry, Nicolas and Sam). In May, NOAA’s preseason prediction was for a less active hurricane season this year, with between 13 to 20 named Storms. In fact, Wanda was our 21st and last-named storm to date. Although this season was less active than 2020’s season (the most active hurricane season in the Atlantic ever recorded, with 30 named storms and 14 hurricanes), 2021 is the 3rd Atlantic Hurricane Season in history to have exhausted its list of given storm names.

While a consensus is still in development among the scientific community regarding whether climate change will affect the frequency or actual numbers of storms and hurricanes generally, it has been reliably established that climate change does affect factors that contribute to the severity of hurricanes. Along with rising sea levels which makes coastal storms more potentially dangerous and damaging, sea surface temperatures are also rising. Since storms draw energy from warm ocean water, weaker storms with less severe winds can suddenly become more intense, generating faster wind speeds to become a greater threat in a shorter than usual timeframe. Warmer air temperatures also allow the air to hold more water, leading to wetter storms. In summary, higher sea levels, increased precipitation, and stronger winds combine to create a perfect storm of more severe hurricanes. (see: Hurricanes and Climate Change | UCAR Center for Science Education). Hence, even if we do not see an increase in the total number of hurricanes, we are likely to see an increase in the strongest types of hurricanes (Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes) (see: Changes in Hurricanes | National Climate Assessment (globalchange.gov). To place this in perspective, Hurricane Ida made landfall in Region 6 (TX, AR, LA, NM, OK) as a Category 5 Hurricane and its impact path persisted into Region 1 (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT), affecting people, property, and the environment of 5 FEMA regions with devastating consequences.  The total cost of its damage is still being calculated, but is projected to reach $95 billion (see: Hurricane Ida's damage tally could top $95 billion, making it 7th costliest hurricane since 2000 (cnbc.com)).

That being said, the question we must all consider is: how do we adapt to a world with more severe hurricanes? Immediately, there is no guarantee Wanda will be the last storm in the Atlantic hurricane season as we still have the rest of the month left, but there are no indicators of any immediate threats (see: Tropical Storm Wanda Atlantic hurricane season | AccuWeather). Since hurricanes will increasingly threaten the safety of communities, their property, and their environment in multiple ways (e.g. from flooding in critical facilities to high winds undermining outdated energy infrastructure), any proposed courses of action will have to involve a holistic approach to managing, preparing for these dangers and our response to them. Moreover, planning will necessitate innovation and new ways of thinking on the part of Federal Agencies, especially FEMA where we consider the impact that Climate Change has on our hurricane seasons. This will be one of the major focus areas of R2’s Climate Adaptation Initiative and will support developing a better understanding of what we should expect from future hurricane seasons, and how we can better adapt and build resilience in our ever-changing environment.

In reflecting on this year’s hurricane season, we should find encouragement in the fact that we can rely on our expertise, creativity, and drive to meet the challenges ahead of us, turning obstacles into opportunities when they present themselves, as we move into an uncertain future.