"Scenario Planning and Strategy in the Pentagon", demonstrates American military leadership is aware and vigilant for the need of change management thinking.
Scenario planning should be one of the Department of Defense’s (DoD) most important tools for developing strategy under uncertainty. Since 2002, the DoD has employed a formalized, joint scenario planning process to support strategy and force development, but that process has proven less influential than intended for strategic decision-making.
Explaining the challenges facing scenario planning and analysis in the Pentagon is the main purpose of this monograph. After presenting a brief history of the DoD’s scenario planning experiences, it argues that the formalized, joint scenario planning process has been most effective in supporting capability and program development, where its emphasis on detailed data development and bureaucratic pedigree has proven most valuable.
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