January 2018 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI)

BTS 15-18

Thursday, March 22, 2018

Contact: Dave Smallen

Tel: 202-366-5568

david.smallen@dot.gov

 

 

                                                                                                                 

January 2018 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI)

 

 

The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, fell 0.4 percent in January from December, falling after reaching an all-time high in December, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS). The January 2018 index level (132.3) was 39.7 percent above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession (Tables 1, 2, and 2A). 

 

 

The level of for-hire freight shipments in January measured by the Freight TSI (132.3) was the second highest all-time level, 0.4 percent below the all-time high of 132.8 one month earlier in December 2017 (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.

 

The December 2017 index was revised to 132.8 from 132.0 in last month’s release. Monthly numbers for March through November 2017 were revised up slightly.

 

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasons from month-to-month comparisons.

 

Analysis: Decreases in rail carloads, rail intermodal, pipeline and water resulted in the January decline of 0.4 percent while trucking and air freight increased. The TSI decline was consistent with the Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production index, which dropped by 0.1 percent in January, led by a fall in mining. However, a range of other indicators, including employment, Personal Income  and Housing Starts grew in January. The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing index fell to 59.1, indicating positive but decelerating growth.

 

Trend: Despite the 0.4 percent decline from the all-time high of 132.8 in December, the January Freight TSI remained at its second highest level of 132.3. The decline followed three successive monthly increases during which the index rose 2.8 percent from September through January. For the year from January 2017, the index rose 6.3 percent. The January index was 39.7 percent above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession. For additional historical data, go to TSI data.

 

Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in January 2018 (132.3) were 39.7 percent higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (94.7). The January 2018 level was 0.4 percent below the historic peak reached in December 2017 (132.8) (Table 1A).

 

Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were down 0.4 percent in January compared to the end of 2017 (Table 3).

 

Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are up 15.8 percent in the five years from January 2013 and are up 16.9 percent in the 10 years from January 2008 (Table 5). 

 

Same month of previous year: January 2018 for-hire freight shipments were up 6.3 percent from January 2017 (Tables 4, 5).

 

The TSI has three seasonally-adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the February 2018 index is scheduled for April 11.

  

Passenger Index: The TSI for passengers rose 0.7 percent in January from its December level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI January 2018 level of 128.5 was 2.1 percent above the January 2017 level (Table 7). The index is up 9.7 percent in five years and up 10.2 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in travel that involves the services of the for-hire passenger transportation sector. The seasonally-adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.

 

Combined Index: The combined freight and passenger TSI fell 0.1 percent in January from its December level (Table 8). The combined TSI January 2018 level of 131.1 was 4.9 percent above the January 2017 level (Table 9). The combined index is up 13.9 percent in five years and up 14.5 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.

 

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.    

 

BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. See TSI data on FRED.   

 

A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download. 

 

 

Table 1: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes since July 2017

Percent Change from Previous Month

(Seasonally-Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

	Freight		Passenger		Combined
	Index	Pct. Change	Index	Pct. Change	Index	Pct. Change
July	129.0	1.7	127.5	-0.2	128.6	1.1
August	129.2	0.2	126.8	-0.5	128.5	-0.1
September	128.7	-0.4	123.9	-2.3	127.2	-1.0
October	130.7	1.6	127.6	3.0	129.8	2.0
November	131.8	0.8	128.4	0.6	130.8	0.8
December	132.8	0.8	127.6	-0.6	131.2	0.3
January	132.3	-0.4	128.5	0.7	131.1	-0.1

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

 

 

Table 1A: Annual High and Low Points in Freight Transportation Services Index, 2009-2018

Year		Month	Peak	Month	Bottom
2009		June	101.5	April	94.7
2014		November	123.4	May	115.8
2015		October	123.0	December	120.8
2016		July	125.1	March	120.0
2017		December	132.8	March	123.7
2018	(thru January)	January	132.3	January	132.3

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

 

Table 2: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2015-2018

Percent change from previous month

	2015	2016	2017	2018
	% Change	% Change	% Change	% Change
January	-0.1	1.7	0.0	-0.4
February	-0.8	-1.0	1.3
March	0.6	-1.3	-1.9
April	-0.4	2.0	0.8
May	0.3	-0.2	2.3
June	-0.2	1.0	-0.6
July	0.4	1.4	1.7
August	0.2	-1.9	0.2
September	-0.2	-0.8	-0.4
October	0.2	1.1	1.6
November	-1.5	0.7	0.8
December	-0.2	0.6	0.8

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

 

Table 2A: Freight Transportation Services Index by Month, 2015-2018

	2015	2016	2017	2018
January	122.8	122.8	124.5	132.3
February	121.8	121.6	126.1
March	122.5	120.0	123.7
April	122.0	122.4	124.7
May	122.4	122.2	127.6
June	122.1	123.4	126.8
July	122.6	125.1	129.0
August	122.9	122.7	129.2
September	122.7	121.7	128.7
October	123.0	123.0	130.7
November	121.1	123.8	131.8
December	120.8	124.5	132.8

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

 

Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes Year-to-Date Change, 2009-2018

Percent change to January from December of the previous year

Year	Freight	Passenger	Combined
2009	-1.9	-0.6	-1.5
2010	1.5	0.1	1.1
2011	1.0	0.1	0.7
2012	-3.2	-0.3	-2.3
2013	1.8	1.0	1.5
2014	-1.6	0.0	-1.1
2015	-0.1	-0.6	-0.3
2016	1.7	-0.7	0.9
2017	0.0	0.2	0.1
2018	-0.4	0.7	-0.1

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

 

Table 4: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent Change in the January Freight TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

	January Freight TSI	Percent change from same month previous year
2009	98.5	-13.0
2010	103.0	4.6
2011	109.8	6.6
2012	111.4	1.5
2013	114.2	2.5
2014	115.8	1.4
2015	122.8	6.0
2016	122.8	0.0
2017	124.5	1.4
2018	132.3	6.3

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

 

 

Table 5: Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years

Percent Change to 2018 (January to January)

Since January . . .	Duration in years	Freight TSI Percent change to January 2018	Passenger TSI Percent change to January 2018	Combined TSI Percent change to January 2018
2017	1	6.3	2.1	4.9
2016	2	7.7	3.9	6.4
2015	3	7.7	7.0	7.5
2014	4	14.2	9.1	12.5
2013	5	15.8	9.7	13.9
2012	6	18.8	11.5	16.4
2011	7	20.5	13.5	18.2
2010	8	28.4	16.3	24.5
2009	9	34.3	17.1	28.8
2008	10	16.9	10.2	14.5

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

 

Table 6: Passenger Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2015-2018

Percent change from previous month

	2015	2016	2017	2018
	% Change	% Change	% Change	% Change
January	-0.6	-0.7	0.2	0.7
February	-0.9	1.0	-1.4
March	1.9	-1.8	1.2
April	0.2	1.3	1.3
May	0.2	0.2	-0.2
June	0.2	0.9	0.8
July	2.1	-0.6	-0.2
August	-1.4	-1.2	-0.5
September	0.3	1.8	-2.3
October	1.1	-1.4	3.0
November	-0.9	0.9	0.6
December	0.9	0.5	-0.6

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

 

Table 7: Passenger Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent change in the January Passenger TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

	January Passenger TSI	Percent change from same month previous year
2009	109.7	-5.9
2010	110.5	0.7
2011	113.2	2.4
2012	115.2	1.8
2013	117.1	1.6
2014	117.8	0.6
2015	120.1	2.0
2016	123.7	3.0
2017	125.8	1.7
2018	128.5	2.1

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

 

 

Table 8: Combined Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2015-2018

Percent change from previous month

	2015	2016	2017	2018
	% Change	% Change	% Change	% Change
January	-0.3	0.9	0.1	-0.1
February	-0.8	-0.3	0.4
March	1.0	-1.5	-1.0
April	-0.2	1.8	1.0
May	0.3	0.0	1.5
June	-0.1	0.9	-0.2
July	0.9	0.7	1.1
August	-0.2	-1.7	-0.1
September	-0.1	0.0	-1.0
October	0.6	0.3	2.0
November	-1.3	0.7	0.8
December	0.1	0.5	0.3

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

 

Table 9: Combined Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent change in the January Combined TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

	January Combined TSI	Percent change from same month previous year
2009	101.8	-11.1
2010	105.3	3.4
2011	110.9	5.3
2012	112.6	1.5
2013	115.1	2.2
2014	116.5	1.2
2015	122.0	4.7
2016	123.2	1.0
2017	125.0	1.5
2018	131.1	4.9

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.