November 2017 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI)

BTS 03-18

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

BTS Contact: Dave Smallen

Tel: 202-366-5568                                                                                                              

 

November 2017 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI)

 

 

The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, reached an all-time high in November, rising 0.2 percent in November from October, growing for the second consecutive month, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS). The November 2017 index level (130.8) was 38.1 percent above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).

 

 

 

 

The level of for-hire freight shipments in November measured by the Freight TSI (130.8) reached its all-time high (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.

 

The October index was revised to 130.5 from 129.2 in last month’s release. Monthly numbers for April through September were revised up slightly and March were revised down slightly.

 

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasons from month-to-month comparisons.

 

Analysis: Notable increases in trucking, rail carloads, rail intermodal, and air freight led the November increase of 0.2 percent while water and pipeline declined. The TSI increase took place against a background of strong results for other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production index rose by 0.2 percent in November, with increases in manufacturing and mining. Employment rose, Personal income grew and Housing Starts increased. The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing index declined to 58.2, indicating positive but decelerating growth.

 

Trend: The Freight TSI’s new all-time high of 130.8 in November was 0.2 percent above the previous all-time high set in October and 4.7 percent above the level of July 2016 (124.9), which was the highest level prior to 2017. November was the second all-time high in a row, and the sixth in 2017. The seven months from May to November 2017 were the seven highest levels the Freight TSI has ever attained. The Freight TSI was at or above 124.0 in every month of 2017, a level it reached in only two months prior to 2017. The November index was 38.1 percent above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession. For additional historical data, go to TSI data.

 

Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in November 2017 (130.8) were 38.1 percent higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (94.7). The November 2017 level reached its all-time high (Table 1A).

 

Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were up 5.0 percent in November compared to the end of 2016 (Table 3).

 

Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are up 16.6 percent in the five years from November 2012 and are up 18.3 percent in the 10 years from November 2007 (Table 5). 

 

Same month of previous year: November 2017 for-hire freight shipments were up 5.8 percent from November 2016 (Tables 4, 5).

 

The TSI has three seasonally-adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the December 2017 index is scheduled for Feb. 14.

 

Passenger Index: The TSI for passengers rose 0.2 percent in November from its October level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI November 2017 level of 127.2 was 1.9 percent above the November 2016 level (Table 7). The index is up 9.9 percent in five years and up 8.4 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in travel that involves the services of the for-hire passenger transportation sector. The seasonally-adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.

 

Combined Index: The combined freight and passenger TSI rose 0.2 percent in November from its October level (Table 8). The combined TSI November 2017 level of 129.8 was 4.7 percent above the November 2016 level (Table 9). The combined index is up 14.6 percent in five years and up 15.1 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.

 

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.    

 

BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. See TSI data on FRED.   

 

For a webinar on the TSI, see Past Webinars. A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.

 

 

Table 1: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes since May 2017

Percent Change from Previous Month

(Seasonally-Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

	Freight		Passenger		Combined
	Index	Pct. Change	Index	Pct. Change	Index	Pct. Change
May	127.6	2.4	126.5	-0.2	127.4	1.6
June	126.7	-0.7	127.4	0.7	127.0	-0.3
July	128.9	1.7	127.2	-0.2	128.5	1.2
August	129.2	0.2	126.5	-0.6	128.4	-0.1
September	128.6	-0.5	123.6	-2.3	127.1	-1.0
October	130.5	1.5	127.0	2.8	129.5	1.9
November	130.8	0.2	127.2	0.2	129.8	0.2

 

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding. 

 

 

Table 1A: Annual High and Low Points in Freight Transportation Services Index, 2009-2017

Year		Month	Peak	Month	Bottom
2009		December	101.6	April	94.7
2013		November	119.0	January	114.1
2014		November	123.4	February	115.7
2015		August	122.8	November	120.9
2016		July	124.9	March	120.0
2017	(thru November)	November	130.8	March	124.0

 

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

 

Table 2: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2014-2017

Percent change from previous month

	2014	2015	2016	2017
	% Change	% Change	% Change	% Change
January	-1.9	-0.3	1.2	-0.2
February	1.9	-0.9	-0.8	1.5
March	1.0	0.8	-1.2	-1.8
April	0.8	-0.6	1.8	0.5
May	0.5	0.5	0.0	2.4
June	-0.8	-0.4	0.7	-0.7
July	0.5	0.4	1.5	1.7
August	0.7	0.2	-2.1	0.2
September	0.2	-0.2	-0.7	-0.5
October	0.7	0.2	1.1	1.5
November	1.0	-1.5	0.7	0.2
December	-0.2	0.0	0.8

 

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

 

Table 2A: Freight Transportation Services Index by Month, 2014-2017

	2014	2015	2016	2017
January	115.7	122.7	122.4	124.4
February	117.9	121.6	121.4	126.3
March	119.1	122.6	120.0	124.0
April	120.1	121.9	122.2	124.6
May	120.7	122.5	122.2	127.6
June	119.7	122.0	123.0	126.7
July	120.3	122.5	124.9	128.9
August	121.1	122.8	122.3	129.2
September	121.4	122.5	121.4	128.6
October	122.2	122.8	122.7	130.5
November	123.4	120.9	123.6	130.8
December	123.1	120.9	124.6

 

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

 

Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes Year-to-Date Change, 2008-2017

Percent change to November from December of the previous year

Year	Freight	Passenger	Combined
2008	-5.8	-4.9	-5.6
2009	0.8	-1.1	0.2
2010	5.6	3.1	4.9
2011	2.8	1.9	2.6
2012	-2.5	0.1	-1.7
2013	6.1	2.3	4.9
2014	4.7	1.7	3.8
2015	-1.8	2.3	-0.5
2016	2.2	0.4	1.6
2017	5.0	1.7	3.9

 

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

 

Table 4: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent Change in the November Freight TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

	November Freight TSI	Percent change from same month previous year
2008	104.3	-5.7
2009	101.2	-3.0
2010	107.3	6.0
2011	111.9	4.3
2012	112.2	0.3
2013	119.0	6.1
2014	123.4	3.7
2015	120.9	-2.0
2016	123.6	2.2
2017	130.8	5.8

 

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

 

 

Table 5: Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years

Percent Change to 2017 (November to November)

Since November . . .	Duration in years	Freight TSI Percent change to November 2017	Passenger TSI Percent change to November 2017	Combined TSI Percent change to November 2017
2016	1	5.8	1.9	4.7
2015	2	8.2	3.0	6.6
2014	3	6.0	6.2	6.0
2013	4	9.9	7.3	9.1
2012	5	16.6	9.9	14.6
2011	6	16.9	10.4	14.9
2010	7	21.9	11.8	18.8
2009	8	29.2	16.5	25.3
2008	9	25.4	15.0	22.1
2007	10	18.3	8.4	15.1

                                                                                                                                                           

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

 

Table 6: Passenger Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2014-2017

Percent change from previous month

	2014	2015	2016	2017
	% Change	% Change	% Change	% Change
January	0.0	-0.6	-0.6	0.3
February	0.2	-0.8	1.0	-1.4
March	1.6	1.9	-1.8	1.1
April	-0.2	0.2	1.2	1.3
May	0.6	0.2	0.3	-0.2
June	-0.9	0.2	0.8	0.7
July	0.3	2.2	-0.6	-0.2
August	0.7	-1.6	-1.2	-0.6
September	-0.3	0.3	1.7	-2.3
October	0.2	1.1	-1.4	2.8
November	-0.4	-0.7	1.0	0.2
December	0.8	0.6	0.2

 

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

 

Table 7: Passenger Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent change in the November Passenger TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

	November Passenger TSI	Percent change from same month previous year
2008	110.6	-5.7
2009	109.2	-1.3
2010	113.8	4.2
2011	115.2	1.2
2012	115.7	0.4
2013	118.6	2.5
2014	119.8	1.0
2015	123.5	3.1
2016	124.8	1.1
2017	127.2	1.9

 

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

 

 

Table 8: Combined Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2014-2017

Percent change from previous month

	2014	2015	2016	2017
	% Change	% Change	% Change	% Change
January	-1.3	-0.4	0.7	-0.1
February	1.4	-0.8	-0.2	0.6
March	1.2	1.1	-1.4	-0.9
April	0.5	-0.2	1.7	0.7
May	0.6	0.4	0.1	1.6
June	-0.8	-0.3	0.7	-0.3
July	0.4	1.0	0.9	1.2
August	0.7	-0.3	-1.8	-0.1
September	0.1	0.0	0.0	-1.0
October	0.5	0.5	0.3	1.9
November	0.6	-1.3	0.7	0.2
December	0.0	0.2	0.7

 

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

 

Table 9: Combined Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent change in the November Combined TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

	November Combined TSI	Percent change from same month previous year
2008	106.3	-5.8
2009	103.6	-2.5
2010	109.3	5.5
2011	113.0	3.4
2012	113.3	0.3
2013	119.0	5.0
2014	122.4	2.9
2015	121.8	-0.5
2016	124.0	1.8
2017	129.8	4.7

 

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.