CSDS News and Analysis 1505 (Feature Report: “Nuclear Enterprise: DOD and NNSA Could Further Enhance How They Manage Risk and Prioritize Efforts,” GAO)

 

Issue

1505

Jan. 24, 2022

Welcome to USAF Center for Strategic Deterrence Studies News and Analysis. As part of the CSDS mission to develop U.S. Air Force, Department of Defense, and other government leaders to advance the state of knowledge, policy, and practices within strategic defense issues involving nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, we offer the government and civilian community a source of contemporary discussions.

Feature Report

“Nuclear Enterprise: DOD and NNSA Could Further Enhance How They Manage Risk and Prioritize Efforts,” U.S. Government Accountability Office, Jan. 20, 2022.

"DOD and NNSA have interdependencies among their nuclear programs, including among the weapon and delivery platform systems of the strategic nuclear triad. These interdependencies may result in additional risks to individual program schedules and costs." Read Report.

Nukes and Deterrence, Counter-WMD, and Arms Control in News and Research

NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND DETERRENCE

• Cybersecurity: Deterrence Policy (Congressional Research Service)
It is relatively cheap for malicious actors to acquire knowledge and tools to conduct cyberattacks so there are many potential adversaries, and there is ambiguity around retaliatory consequences.

• NNSA Makes New Progress on Los Alamos Plutonium Pit Production Project (DOE)
Once legacy equipment is removed, there will be space for new production equipment installation to produce 30 plutonium pits per year at the lab by 2026.

• Nuclear Notebook: Israeli Nuclear Weapons, 2022 (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)
The Israeli nuclear weapons program dates back to the mid-1950s, when the country’s first prime minister, David Ben Gurion, began to explore a nuclear insurance plan ... .

• India’s Nuclear Arsenal Takes A Big Step Forward (Federation of American Scientists)
The Agni-P also incorporates a new feature seen on India’s new Agni-V intermediate-range ballistic missiles that has the potential to impact strategic stability: canisterization.

COUNTER-WMD

• Army’s IBCS Passed F-35 Sensor Data to Artillery System at Project Convergence 21 (Breaking Defense)
IBCS ... is the Army’s future air and missile defense backbone, designed to connect disparate radars, combine their targeting data and pass that information to the correct launcher.

• Air Force Must Harden Pacific Bases Against Missiles, Secretary Says (Defense One)
“What I am trying to instill within the whole department is a sense of urgency about all of this … they're things we have to do to be successful,” Kendall said.

• Upgraded Arrow-3 Test Has Kinetic Kill on Simulated Iranian Ballistic Missile (Breaking Defense)
The Jan 18. test was conducted jointly by the Israel Missile Defense Organization (IMDO), its US counterpart the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) and the Israeli armed forces.

US ARMS CONTROL

• North Korea’s Goals in 2022: Internal Stability and Nuclear Development (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)
Kim reiterated his top priority of economic recovery (from a triple crisis of international sanctions, flood damage, and the coronavirus pandemic) and disclosed a wish list of modern, strategic weapons.

• The Biden Nuclear Posture Review: Obstacles to Reducing Reliance on Nuclear Weapons (Arms Control Today)
The 2018 NPR reversed course and instead took steps to increase the nation’s reliance on nuclear weapons.

• Nuclear Weapons and Delivery Systems That Might Be Implicated in Nuclear Use Involving the Korean Peninsula (Asia-Pacific Leadership Network)
The DPRK could then use its short- and medium-range ballistic missiles to strike political and military targets in the ROK and Japan and use its intermediate-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles to strike US military targets, including Guam, Hawaii, and the continental United States.

COMMENTARY

• Breaking the Diplomatic Deadlock with North Korea (War on the Rocks)
"The denuclearization of North Korea is an admirable goal, albeit one unlikely to be realized anytime soon. A more practical approach would be to prioritize efforts to end North Korean cyber crime."

• Modernizing US Nuclear Deterrence Presents a Rare Bipartisan Opportunity (Defense News)
“America’s intercontinental ballistic missiles are the foundation of nuclear deterrence, but they have been in service since the 1970s ... and must be modernized to remain effective.”

• Nuclear Weapons, China, and a Strategic Defense Initiative for this Century (National Interest)
“A modern strategy for addressing the threats we now confront must be conceptually similar to Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative and draw from the lessons it conveyed.”