CSDS News and Analysis 1474 (Feature Report: “U.S. Nuclear Policies for a Safer World,” NTI)

 

ISSUE

1474

June 21, 2021

Welcome to USAF Center for Strategic Deterrence Studies News and Analysis! As part of the CSDS mission to develop U.S. Air Force, Department of Defense, and other government leaders to advance the state of knowledge, policy, and practices within strategic defense issues involving nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, we offer the government and civilian community a source of contemporary discussions.

Feature Report

"U.S. Nuclear Policies for a Safer World”. Nuclear Threat Initiative, June 2021.

The set of papers, offered just as the administration begins its review of U.S. nuclear policies, posture and arms control, recommends changes to U.S. nuclear policy and posture, reengagement with Russia on strategic stability and arms control, dialogue and risk reduction efforts with China, and recommitment to multilateral efforts to strengthen the global nonproliferation regime. Read Report.

Nukes and Deterrence, Counter-WMD, and Arms Control in News and Research

NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND DETERRENCE

• Principles of Nuclear Deterrence and Strategy (NATO Defense College)
This Research Paper seeks to describe and explain the principles of nuclear deterrence and nuclear strategy. It does not defend or take sides – in favour of or against – a particular thesis, concept, idea or school of thought.

• New GBSD Will Fly in 2023; No Margin Left for Minuteman (Air Force Magazine)
The GBSD is expected to achieve initial operational capability in 2029 and full operational capability with 400 missiles seven years later in 2036, Bartolomei said.

• Global Nuclear Arsenals Grow as States Continue to Modernize–New SIPRI Yearbook Out Now (SIPRI)
Despite this overall decrease, the estimated number of nuclear weapons currently deployed with operational forces increased to 3825, from 3720 last year.

• Book Review Roundtable: The Revolution that Failed (Texas National Security Review)
In this roundtable, our contributors review Brendan Rittenhouse Green's book "The Revolution that Failed," which questions the conventional wisdom on nuclear deterrence.

• Biden to Stay Course on Nuclear Modernization (National Defense)
“Modernizing the nation’s nuclear delivery and command, control and communications systems is the [Defense] Department’s No. 1 priority,” according to Pentagon budget documents.

COUNTER-WMD

• Official Details DOD Missile Defense Strategy (DoD)
As missile technology matures and proliferates among potential adversaries China, Russia, North Korea and Iran, the threat to the U.S., deployed forces, allies and partners is increasing.

• Lawmakers Push to Boost Missile Defense Agency Budget Second Year in a Row (Defense News)
The request focuses on development of future capabilities including a next-generation interceptor for homeland missile defense, a hypersonic defensive capability and space-based tracking.

• Give Lasers Back to the Missile Defense Agency, Lawmaker Says (Defense One)
The Pentagon’s 2019 Missile Defense Review said “laser technology holds the potential to provide a future cost-effective capability to destroy boosting missiles in the early part of the trajectory.”

• Hypersonic Missile Defense: Issues for Congress (Congressional Research Service)
The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) and Space Development Agency (SDA) are currently developing
elements of a hypersonic missile defense systemto defend against hypersonic weapons and other emerging missile threats.

• MDA and the 2022 Budget (CSIS)
The CSIS Missile Defense Project [will] welcome back Vice Admiral Jon Hill, Director of the Missile Defense Agency, to speak on the Agency's FY 2022 programs, priorities, and budgets [Tuesday].

US ARMS CONTROL

• How Will U.S.-Russia Arms Control Affect the Geneva Summit? (Carnegie Moscow Center)
... Based on remarks that James Acton gave to journalists on June 10, 2021 ahead of the summit between Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin in Geneva.

• Reading the Nuclear Tea Leaves: Policy and Posture in the Biden Administration (CSIS)
Deterrence works best in moderation, and the ability to avoid precipitous swings across the ideological divide better reinforces deterrence and assures allies alike.

• Norms for Space Should Be Key to Arms Control Negotiations, Generals Say (Air Force Magazine)
Also on June 15, VanHerck voiced support for the Homeland Defense Radar-Hawaii (HDR-H), a long-planned missile defense sensor that went unfunded in the 2022 budget.

• Russia, US Will Launch Arms Control Talks To Avoid ‘Accidental War’ (Defense One)
A joint statement from Biden and Putin released by the White House says talks will begin “in the near future...to lay the groundwork for future arms control and risk reduction measures.”

COMMENTARY

• The Best Defense: Why NATO Should Invest in Resilience (Atlantic Council)
“Strengthening bio-preparedness efforts through modeling and planning will help drive a resilient crisis response.”

• Reimagining the Open Skies Treaty: Cooperative Aerial Monitoring (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)
“The Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty established limits on key categories of military equipment and mandated the destruction of excess weapons; it also permitted on-site inspections.”

• In the Iran Nuclear Crisis, the IAEA Stands Alone (The Hill)
"An international organization with a monitoring and verification mandate should not have to go it alone against an aspiring nuclear rogue."