CSDS News and Analysis 1459 (Feature Report: “NNSA: Info on 2021 Budget Request/Affordability of Nuclear Modernization Activities,” GAO)

 

ISSUE

1459

March 8, 2021

Welcome to USAF Center for Strategic Deterrence Studies News and Analysis! As part of the CSDS mission to develop U.S. Air Force, Department of Defense, and other government leaders to advance the state of knowledge, policy, and practices within strategic defense issues involving nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, we offer the government and civilian community a source of contemporary discussions.

Feature Report

"National Nuclear Security Administration: Information on the Fiscal Year 2021 Budget Request and Affordability of Nuclear Modernization Activities”. By U.S. Government Accountability Office, July 2020.

“The Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration is in the middle of a long-term effort to modernize the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile. DOE's 2021 budget estimate for nuclear modernization activities for FYs 2021-2025 is $81 billion—$15 billion more than its 2020 budget estimate for the same period. Such an increase may require cuts in other national defense programs to keep the defense budget within spending limits." Read Report.

Nukes and Deterrence, Counter-WMD, and Arms Control in News and Research

NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND DETERRENCE
• NORTHCOM, NORAD Needs to Modernize Faster, Change Thinking to Improve Deterrence (AF Magazine)
[NORTHCOM and NORAD boss Gen. Glen D.] VanHerck highlighted the need to deter against advanced hypersonic threats, which adversaries such as Russia are developing.

• Lawmakers Aim to Prevent Sea-based Nuclear Cruise Missile (Defense News)
Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., and Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., called on Biden to cancel the program as well as the submarine-launched, low-yield W76-2 warhead, fielded under [Donald] Trump.

• New Threats Demand Nuclear Modernization (AF Magazine)
Nuclear modernization is an imperative ..., senior U.S. military leaders said at AFA’s virtual Aerospace Warfare Symposium.

• Eyeing China, Indo-Pacific Command Seeks $27 Billion Deterrence Fund (Defense News)
INDOPACOM renewed its call for the U.S. to build a $1.6 billion, 360-degree persistent and integrated air defense capability in Guam ... .

COUNTER-WMD
• MDA Says Alaska-based Missile Defense Radar Will Be Operational in 2021 (Defense News)
The GAO indicated concern about conducting two ground tests before the program’s only flight test, as it “increases the likelihood that the models will not be accredited when testing is complete.”

• Chemical Weapons Arms Control at a Crossroads: Russia, Syria, and the Future of the Chemical Weapons Convention (3/23) (Schar School at George Mason)
Dr. John Walker, Dr. Una Jakob, and Dr. Hanna Notte will discuss the challenges posed by the current Russian and Syrian chemical weapons programs ... .

• Davidson: Aegis Ashore on Guam Would ‘Free Up’ 3 Navy Destroyers (USNI News)
Building an Aegis Ashore facility on Guam would relieve three guided-missile destroyers from missile defense work and make them available for Navy tasking, the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said.

US ARMS CONTROL
• Photos Show North Korea May Be Trying to Extract Plutonium (Associated Press)
Plutonium is one of the two key ingredients to build nuclear weapons along with highly enriched uranium.

• Iran Balks at Resuming Nuclear Talks with US (VOA)
Tehran said that before talks are held, the new U.S. administration of President Joe Biden must first lift its unilateral economic sanctions against Iran.

• Biden National Security Guidance Calls to Increase Diplomacy, Downplay Nukes, End Afghanistan Conflict (Defense News)
The Biden team promised to “head off costly arms races and re-establish our credibility as a leader in arms control,” starting with the extension of the New START treaty with Russia.

• Biden Administration Sanctions Russia over Navalny Poisoning and Arrest (Politico)
... An expansion of sanctions under the Chemical and Biological Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act, the officials said.

COMMENTARY
• It’s Time to Reboot America’s Counter-WMD Strategy (Defense News)
“The current era of great power competition, advances in technology and globalization necessitate a reboot that incorporates those lessons into an implementable whole-of-government approach.”

• Hits & Misses In Biden’s Interim National Security Guidance (Breaking Defense)
“In the relatively short section discussing national defense as traditionally defined, the interim guidance contains some puzzling thoughts regarding nuclear weapons.”

• Enough Already: No New ICBMs (Arms Control Today)
“Realizing that vision will require a sober-minded reassessment of outdated nuclear deterrence assumptions, a fresh look at Trump-era nuclear weapons spending plans, and political courage.”