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What is Risk?
The National Risk Index is a dataset and user-friendly online application created by the Natural Hazards Risk Assessment Program (NHRAP) to help illustrate the United States communities most at risk for 18 natural hazards. But what does “risk” really mean? How were we able to calculate risk scores and ratings for natural hazards? Risk can generally be defined as the probability of an event happening multiplied by the expected consequence if that event occurs.
Natural hazard risk in the Index is a relative measure calculated separately at the county and Census tract levels, that shows the potential for negative impacts resulting from natural hazards. This approach expands on the traditional expression of risk solely as expected losses, by accounting for the likelihood of adverse impacts based on a community’s comparative social vulnerability and community resilience. The risk equation consists of the following three components: 1) Expected Annual Loss; 2) Social Vulnerability; and 3) Community Resilience as shown in Figure 2.
 Figure 2. The National Risk Index’s equation for calculating risk
Risk Components
Expected Annual Loss: Computed at the lowest level of geography possible (Census block in many cases) and aggregated to the Census tract and county levels, this metric gives the average economic loss in dollars resulting from natural hazards each year. The Expected Annual Loss is calculated by multiplying Frequency, Exposure, and Historic Loss Ratio for all 18 hazards included in the Index as shown in Figure 3.
Source Data: Various sources
 Figure 3. Breakdown of the Expected Annual Loss Equation
To learn more about the National Risk Index Tool, visit the Analytics Hub.
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