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At September’s USAID Event in Support of Democracies on the Rise at the United Nations General Assembly, USAID Administrator Samantha Power said, “those who believe in free societies and free markets need to help your citizens, the citizens of the countries gathered here, feel the difference that democracy and reform can make in their lives day to day. We need to help you diversify your economies or form new trade relationships, create jobs or deliver better healthcare, tackle inequality and provide reliable public services.”
 USAID Administrator Samantha Power hosts political leaders, civil society and private sector partners in countries experiencing democratic openings at the USAID event in Support of Democracies on the Rise at the United Nations General Assembly 2022.
It is important to regularly review the core principles of our work. In this spirit, USAID joins our colleagues at the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) in exploring the evidence behind their Case for Democracy campaign. The campaign outlines and promotes the social, economic, and security benefits of a more democratic world and reveals the tangible costs of democratic backsliding. One year into the campaign, the investigation has published eight policy briefs to highlight democracy’s positive impact, including public goods, economic growth, and health. November’s Learning Digest explored the first four briefers (focused on public goods provision, health, education, and social protection).
This edition of the DRG Learning Digest highlights V-Dem’s remaining findings on how democracy delivers for citizens:
- Does Democracy Cause Economic Growth, Stability, and Employment for the Poor?
- Are Democracies Better at Combating Climate Change?
- Does Democracy Increase Global Peace?
- Does Democracy Improve Data Quality and Access?
Please make use of DRG Evidence and Learning Team resources! (See text box at the end.)
Democracies experience faster economic growth than autocracies. One way researchers determine the economic effect of democracy is to compare very similar non-democratic countries, in which one becomes a democracy and the other remains non-democratic. Using this and other empirical approaches, researchers have found that democracies grow substantially faster than autocracies – between 10-30 percent more over a 25-year period. While autocracies can experience periods of strong economic performance, they frequently suffer from deep economic crises that destroy their economic gains. Democracies, however, enjoy more stable growth – they are four times less likely than autocracies to experience long-term economic downturns. The positive effects of democracy on economic growth apply to countries at all stages of development and grow over time; the effect is smaller immediately after transition to democracy (due to the turbulence of introducing new institutions) and larger once those democratic institutions are established.
Democracies achieve greater economic growth by implementing policies that are conducive to economic growth, including economic liberalization and greater investment in schooling and healthcare of citizens. As discussed in the November edition of the Learning Digest, democratic institutions give political leaders an incentive to provide for the material needs of citizens and give citizens accountability mechanisms for inadequate political and economic performance. Strengthening these incentives – by improving voting access and access to information – ensures the positive effects of democracy are felt by all levels of society.
A recent evidence review conducted by the DRG Center also found that foreign aid allocations at the time of democratization – regardless of whether the transition from authoritarianism to democracy is measured in loose or strict terms – improve economic growth. Though this research did not explore the consequences for democratic consolidation, it implies – given the correlation between economic development and democratic survival – that allocations of foreign aid at the time of democratization may strengthen democracy by increasing the robustness of the economy.
 “Mean growth rates for democracies and autocracies, 1800s-2000s.” Democracies (red) experience more and more stable economic growth than autocracies (black). Growth in democracies is consistently positive, rarely negative, and never severely negative. Growth in autocracies is centered near zero, negative much more often than democracies, and can be severely negative, up to -15 percent annually. Sources: V-Dem Policy Brief and Knutsen, A Business Case for Democracy: Regime Type, Growth, and Growth Volatility.
Climate change poses a serious threat to national security and global stability, and the role of democracies in combating the climate crisis shouldn’t be overlooked. Democracies outperform autocracies in the implementation of policies to combat climate change and in actual reductions in emissions or slowing climate change. Democracies make 19 percent more commitments to address and combat climate change than autocracies. Those commitments are also more ambitious, with democracies aiming to reduce warming by 1.6°C more than autocracies. Policies to combat climate change lead to concrete action, with more reductions in global CO2 emissions due to climate change policies in 2016 than the total annual amount of CO2 emissions released by the United States. Each climate change policy, on average, can reduce emissions between one to two percent every three years. And while democracies are often criticized for exporting their climate burdens to less developed countries producing and refining oil and gas and manufacturing countries, analyses show that even when accounting for climate reductions associated with export of labor, democracies still outpace authoritarian countries in combating climate change.
 Carbon dioxide emissions per capita have been decreasing since 1970 in countries with greater civil society participation and freedom of expression, and increasing in countries lacking those democratic attributes. Source: V-Dem Policy Brief.
Democracies’ effectiveness in fighting climate change can depend on levels of egalitarianism, civil rights, and corruption. More egalitarian societies are more effective than other forms of democracy in fighting climate change, and robust civil rights sectors play a key role in fighting climate change. Climate policies in countries with weaker rule of law and higher corruption are ten times less effective at reducing emissions. The greater the civil liberties are in a country, the lower its emissions, mostly due to activism by environmental non-governmental organizations.
USAID’s Climate Strategy 2022-2030 emphasizes that “citizen engagement and good governance underpin both democratic and climate resilience.” As part of this strategy, USAID will proactively support citizen engagement and civil society efforts and will strengthen participatory and inclusive governance systems to help partner countries implement their climate goals. For more on USAID’s approach to linking climate and DRG objectives, please review the May 2022 Learning Digest “Mitigating Climate Change, Conserving Natural Resources, and Promoting DRG: Mutually-Reinforcing Objectives.”
Democracies also play a key role in maintaining national and international peace. Nationally, democratic institutions that ensure accountability and empower citizens to share their grievances lower the risk of violent domestic conflict. This is even more true in more egalitarian democracies. Data from the last two centuries shows that the annual risk of violent conflict drops from 30 percent in countries where women have little or no power and freedoms to five percent in the countries where women are more empowered to influence political decision-making. Siranne Dahlum and Tore Wig found, “this relationship is driven by both women’s political participation, particularly the bottom-up political participation of women, e.g., in civil society – and the culture that conduces it.”
 Fanis Lisiagali, Executive Director of Healthcare Assistance Kenya, leads the White Ribbon Campaign promoting a rapid response hotline that addresses violence against women in elections. Photo: Carla Chianese, International Foundation for Electoral Systems
The positive effects of democracy on peace can also be seen internationally. Very democratized countries do not go to war with each other, and the spread of democracy reduces armed disputes and wars. A region with a high level of democracy reduces the chance of a violent international conflict by 70 percent. Democracies achieve this by ensuring several sources of national accountability, from free elections and limits of executive power to a robust civil society. Women’s political participation also plays an important role in minimizing the risk of violent international conflict; democracies where women’s right to vote is constrained are 192 percent more likely to initiate war with another country.
 Women’s political empowerment contributes directly and strongly to peace. Source: V-Dem Policy Brief
While democracies are less likely to fight civil wars than dictatorships, falling in the “middle” of the autocracy-democracy political spectrum may elevate chances of violent civil conflict. Countries with unstable political systems are four times more likely to experience domestic unrest and nine times more likely to have a civil war compared to consolidated autocracies or consolidated democracies, with most of the risk coming within the first five years following a political transition. Autocratic regimes inhibit violent conflict through iron-fisted control; democracies provide citizen protections and opportunities for peaceful transfers of power. States in the “middle” are often exposed to risks from both above and below. They may not be strong enough either to crush opposition or provide the necessary protections to facilitate peaceful transfers of power. USAID’s Theories of Democratic Change Phase III: Transitions from Conflict explores the relationship between democratic practice and violent conflict, recommending that “practitioners should pay special attention to regimes that combine aspects of both democracy and autocracy and to precisely how those institutions create conflict potential.”
Good information is one of the foundations for good policy making and review processes. Recognizing this, USAID has made evidence-based decision-making a priority in its development policy. Democracies publish more – and more accurate – data than autocracies because democracies have checks to ensure transparency. Autocracies, on the other hand, use their unchecked control over national statistics bureaus to systematically manipulate official statistics and create a false perception of competency. Along with manipulation of official statistics, surveys in autocracies are often beset by self-censorship because respondents fear admitting negative attitudes toward the government, even on a supposedly anonymous survey.
Autocracies overstate official annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth by up to 35 percent, or approximately one percentage point. One way researchers estimate the accuracy of GDP data is to compare GDP growth with things that tend to correlate with it, like growth in the use of electricity. Using satellite data of night light levels to measure growth in the use of electricity, researchers have consistently shown that autocracies lack the electricity growth they should have for their reported GDP growth.
 Most autocratic countries (solid dots, potentially manipulated) are above the diagonal line, indicating that they report more GDP growth than you would expect from their (objectively observable) electrification rates. Source: V-Dem Policy Brief.
Autocracies also are falsifying reports of COVID-19 deaths. One way researchers estimate the accuracy of COVID-19 mortality statistics is to compare official COVID-19 mortality with excess mortality – deaths above the expected number per year. Whereas COVID-19 deaths explain excess mortality in democracies, autocracies still have many unexplained deaths after accounting for official COVID-19 mortality statistics. Researchers also look for violations of Benford's law, which describes the distribution of leading digits of numbers (deviations from this law are used to test for accounting fraud). Official COVID-19 mortality statistics follow this law in democracies but not in non-democracies, indicating fraud. Autocracies manipulate data to appear better than they are on economic performance, public health, and other development outcomes. But even without fully accurate data in autocracies, the empirical case for democracy to improve development outcomes is strong.
Further Assistance
You can learn more about V-Dem’s Case for Democracy and other resources found in this Learning Digest by contacting Christopher Grady (cgrady@usaid.gov) and Levi Adelman (ladelman@usaid.gov) or the DRG Center’s Evidence and Learning Team (ddi.drg.elmailist@usaid.gov).
Recent DRG Learning Events
The Role of Youth in Nonviolent Action Campaigns
Since 2020, USAID's DRG Center has been supporting the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) and their partners at the Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) to conduct research on the role of youth and women in nonviolent action campaigns. On December 5, the DRG Center hosted an event focused on youth at the frontlines of these campaigns. Drawing on a new cross-national dataset and a series of survey experiments on youth framing, the evidence reveals promising associations between youth participation and nonviolent campaign success, but also cautions that youth participation does not necessarily make movements more popular or inclusive across societal divides.
The Role of Women in Nonviolent Action Campaigns
USIP and HKS again joined the DRG Center on December 12 to discuss the central role of women in nonviolent campaigns. Among other findings, the evidence reveals that movements featuring women’s participation are perceived by observers to be more likely to succeed and more deserving of popular support, and that women’s participation is historically associated with nonviolent campaign success.
Use Our Resources!
Welcome to the DRG Learning Digest, a newsletter to keep you informed of the latest learning, evaluation, and research in the Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance (DRG) sector. Views expressed in the external (non-USAID) publications linked in this Digest do not necessarily represent the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.
Don't forget to check out our DRG Learning Menu of Services! (Link only accessible to USAID personnel.) The Menu provides information on the learning products and services the Evidence and Learning Team offers to help you fulfill your DRG learning needs. We want to help you adopt learning approaches that emphasize best fit and quality.
The Evidence and Learning Team is also excited to share our DRG Learning, Evidence, and Analysis Platform (LEAP) with you. This Platform contains an inventory of programmatic approaches, evidence gap maps, the DRG Learning Harvest, and inventories of indicators and country data portraits - all of which can be very useful in DRG activity design, implementation, evaluation, and adaptation. Some of these resources are still being built, so check back frequently to see what has been newly added.
The DRG Learning Harvest on LEAP is a searchable database of DRG learning products, including summaries of key findings and recommendations, drop-down menus to easily find documents related to a particular country or program area, and links to the full reports on the DEC.
Our friends at the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute are also seeking to expand their research partnership with USAID on the complex nature of democracy by inviting research questions from you for V-Dem to work on. If there's a DRG technical question you've been wondering about, please email the Evidence and Learning Team at ddi.drg.elmaillist@usaid.gov.
We welcome your feedback on this newsletter and on our efforts to promote the accessibility, dissemination, and utilization of DRG evidence and research. Please visit the DRG Center's website for additional information or contact us at ddi.drg.elmaillist@usaid.gov.
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