Your questions answered
What is the "R" number and why is it different regionally?
The R number is worked out at a regional level. For the South West is currently 0.76. It can be found online: https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/
What is the R number?
The R number tells us how many people will be infected from a single case. So if someone with Covid-19 infected two extra people, the R number would be 2. If R value is below one, then on average each infected person will infect fewer than one other person and the number of new infections will fall over time. The lower the number, the faster the number of new infections will fall. When R is above one, the number of new infections is accelerating
The R value is only one part of the picture and needs to be considered alongside other information, such as pressure on healthcare services, to assess the threat posed by Covid-19.
How is the R number calculated?
The R value is calculated by Cambridge University, working in partnership with PHE. They use published data and evidence on infection rate, the risk of dying with Covid-19 and the duration of infection to build regional models. This enables them to estimate ongoing transmission (R).
Why is the R number higher in some areas than others?
The timing of the initial wave of infection was very different in each region, for example there is a big contrast between the South West and London. Consequently, there will be some regional variation in R even now while we are in lockdown. This can be seen in the decrease in the number of daily deaths in every region but with a particularly sharp decline in London. Regions currently estimated to have the highest value for R (North East, South West, East of England) are those which had the lowest level of activity prior to the lockdown, due to a delayed spread into these regions. The PHE/Cambridge group is one of many teams producing such estimates, and this regional variation seems to be a consistent finding.
Please can you report on "excess deaths” as it would allow members to better scrutinise the potential number of Covid-19 deaths that weren’t identified with a test / would show if those deaths with Covid-19 might have been expected anyway (i.e. someone dying with Covid-19 rather than because of Covid-19).
Using Office of National Statistics data we can compare the mortality in the county with the five year average for the same week. This allows for “smoothing” of effects such as heavy seasonal flu years, or Easter weekend moving. This analysis allows us to see if there are more deaths than we would expect per week in the county.
Importantly, the counts are of deaths by all causes combined, meaning that the uncertainty of what is or is not a registered death due to Covid-19 is less relevant.
The weekly 'all cause' death rate in Gloucestershire was significantly higher compared to the five year average for several weeks during April and early May; this trend was seen across all regions in England. As of week 19 (week commencing 8 May) the mortality rate was not significantly higher than we would have expected, both in the county and in all districts. You can see a more detailed explanation in this video.
*The above data reflects nationally published data available here.
**This section contains information on deaths of patients who have died in hospitals in Gloucestershire and had tested positive for Covid-19 at time of death or where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. All deaths are recorded against the date of death rather than the date the deaths were announced. It is based on national NHS data published here.
The data in this briefing is updated at 9am each day based on the figures released at 2pm the previous day.
***Weekly death figures provide provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales for which data are available. From 31 March 2020 these figures also show the number of deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19), based on any mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate. The number includes deaths that occurred up to 15 May but were registered up to 23 May. Figures by place of death may differ to previously published figures due to improvements in the way we code place of death. This figure does not include deaths of those resident outside England and Wales or those records where the place of residence is either missing or not yet fully coded. For this reason counts may differ to published figures when summed. Bank Holidays could affect the number of registrations made within those weeks.
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