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The latest climate change evidence update on storms and waves has now been published by MCCIP. This update, led by Dr Lucy Bricheno, from the National Oceanography Centre in Liverpool, indicates that more very severe winter storms will cross over the UK and Ireland in the future.
The newest climate models are generally able to consistently predict storm tracks, showing an increase in large and intense wintertime storms and a greater likelihood of successive storms and compound events. High-impact and low-likelihood events, such as the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), could strengthen the storm track and winter westerly winds over the North Atlantic. The models also show that even a gradual weakening of the AMOC could lead to stronger storms and larger storm surges.
However, it is important to note that there is still considerable uncertainty regarding future changes to North Atlantic storms, much of which are driven by natural variability rather than long-term climate change.
The key issues covered by this update and the link to the full report can be found below.
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STORMS AND WAVES
Key issues:
- Atmospheric circulation
- Storminess
- Waves and surges
- North Atlantic variability and waves trends
- Coastal impacts
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MCCIP Secretariat
The Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science
Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, Suffolk, NR33 0HT, UK
MCCIP is the primary independent source of marine and coastal climate change evidence and advice in the UK
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