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Dear friends,
As we transition back into the school year, please remember to use extra caution in and around school zones. Also, please use caution in work zones as many projects enter a "home stretch" for the season. Too many flaggers get hit, injured or killed each year.
The second set of "legislative days" for the 2024 interim will take place September 23-25. This is an opportunity for committees to hold informational hearings and begin discussions on bill concepts for the 2025 regular session. The Senate Committee on Judiciary and the Joint Committee on Addiction & Community Safety Response, both of which I chair, will be meeting on Tuesday, September 24. The Senate will also meet for consideration of the Governor's appointments to various boards and commissions. You can review committee agendas (once posted) and watch live proceedings using the Legislature's online information system.
 Last week, I had the honor of attending a National Conference of State Legislators site visit to learn about effective community-based programs at San Diego's David's Harp Foundation for kids at risk. The foundation aims to inspire, educate, and empower under-resourced and homeless youth to achieve academic success through music and media production.
Below you will find information on:
- September Revenue Forecast
- Session Accomplishments: Public Safety & Justice
- Rainbow Water District Receives State Award
I hope this information is helpful and informative for you or someone you know. As always, feel free to share your comments, questions or concerns with me by phone, mail or e-mail.
September Revenue Forecast
Yet another robust economic and revenue forecast was released at a joint meeting of the Senate and House Revenue Committees by the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (OEA). Below is a summary of the forecast. I'm determined that the Legislature be smart and focused with Oregonians' hard-earned tax dollars to deliver needed results on our most urgent priorities.
Revenue Outlook
2023-25 Net General Fund resources are up $675.5 million from the June 2024 forecast. The 2023-25 General Fund ending balance is now $1.8 billion versus June's projected ending balance of $1.2 billion. Lottery revenue for the 2023-25 biennium is down $600,000 from the June 2024 forecast.
Reserve accounts are currently at $899.8 million (Education Stability Fund) and $1.7 billion (Rainy Day Fund). The projected ending balances for the 2023-25 biennium reserve account are as follows: Education Stability Fund ($1 billion and Rainy Day Fund $1.9 billion). The Rainy Day Fund is projected to receive $329 million following the end of the 2023-2025 Biennium.
Kicker Outlook
A personal kicker of $987 million is projected for 2025. Corporate tax revenue of $882.8 million is projected to be dedicated to K-12 education spending in 2025-2027.
OEA Economic Outlook
The economy has transitioned out of the inflationary economic boom and into what will hopefully become a sustained expansion. So far, the Federal Reserve appears to be threading the needle. High interest rates were needed when inflation was running near double-digits, but no longer. The key will be when, and how quickly the Fed adjusts course. Expectations are interest rate cuts will begin next month. This should stabilize and revive rate-sensitive parts of the economy in the year ahead. The labor market is expected to improve as well following the past year where slower hiring has led to a rising unemployment rate, despite layoffs remaining low. While imminent recession fears appear misplaced, the longer high interest rates remain, the probability of recession rises as economic growth slows. Getting a read on the current state of Oregon's economy is challenging. Over the entire cycle to date, Oregon’s economic performance has been solid. Employment gains, income growth, and population change are all roughly in the middle of the pack across all states, but a bit below the typical state. For now, the economic forecast remains essentially unchanged compared to recent outlooks. Both personal and corporate income taxes have come in noticeably higher than the previous forecast.
OEA Corporate Activity Tax (CAT) Projections
According to the September 2024 outlook, the CAT is expected to generate around $2.8 billion during the current 2023-25 biennium. Strong consumer spending and the inflationary environment have both played roles in the large amount of collections. Given a lack of historical experience, the outlook for the corporate activity tax remains uncertain. However, since the CAT is a tax on consumption, collections will prove to be less volatile than Oregon’s dominant income taxes over time. The baseline outlook for tax liability is currently based on expected output growth across various industries as well as growth in consumer spending. So far, CAT tax collections have outpaced such measures of underlying economic activity. The CAT outlook is lowered $24.6 million (-0.9%) in the current 2023-25 biennium compared to the previous forecast.
Session Accomplishments: Public Safety & Justice
Following the 2024 short Legislative Session, I'm sharing in-depth summaries of bills passed by subject area. Below is a comprehensive listing of accomplishments related to public safety & justice — by Senate/House bill and in numeric order:
Senate Bills
SB 1503 - Suicide and Gun Violence Prevention Task Force: Suicide is the leading cause of death in Oregon. In 2022, 878 people died by suicide, and 477 of those people used firearms. I was happy to help pass this legislation to establish the Task Force on Community Safety and Firearm Suicide Prevention to study public health best practices to save lives from gun suicide and violence in our communities. I will serve as a legislative member on the task force.
SB 1553 - Protecting Transit Riders from Illicit Drugs on Public Transit: People riding on buses often are exposed to illicit drugs or threatening behavior in enclosed, moving spaces. They often have no other option but to deal with these issues as this is their only mode of transportation. This legislation, which was taken up in the Senate Judiciary Committee, which I chair, includes use of a controlled substance on a transit vehicle as a Class A misdemeanor offense of interfering with public transportation and adds the crime as a designated drug-related misdemeanor, subject to community-based supervision.
House Bills
HB 4001 - Stabilizing Drug Courts and Task Force on Speciality Courts: Specialty courts divert people away from jail or prison towards court-directed supervision, which can include mandated treatment to nonviolent individuals with substance use or mental health needs. Due to the growth in specialty courts, they are in need of a review. This legislation establishes the Task Force on Specialty Courts, which examines statutory authority, programmatic structure, coordination of funding, measurements of performance, legislative oversight, standardization of best practices and expected outcomes, and reporting back to the legislature.
HB 4140 - Victims Protections Package: To continue providing services and support to victims of child abuse and domestic or sexual violence, this legislation allocates ongoing funding to children advocacy centers, the Survivor Housing Funds grant program, and the Oregon Domestic and Sexual Violence Services Fund.
HB 4156 - Updating Stalking Laws to Match Modern Technology: Approximately $13.5 million people are threatened by stalking every year. 42 percent of stalkers are acquaintances, and 40 percent are intimate partners. This legislation modernizes Oregon's stalking laws by adding to the definition of contact to include using personal identification, images without consent, electronic devices, or causing a third party to harass or humiliate a person.
HB 4146 – Sexual Abuse Restraining Orders: In Oregon, a Family Abuse Prevention Act order, Elderly Persons and Persons with Disabilities Abuse Prevention order, or a Sexual Abuse Restraining Order can only be filed in the county where the person filing it or the alleged perpetrator lives. This legislation adds to the law and allows a person to file the order in the county where the abuse occurred.
Rainbow Water District Receives State Award
Congratulations to the Rainbow Water District on its successful application to procure a hydrogeologic consultant and a well driller to perform approximately four soil borings that will consist of collecting soil and groundwater samples for testing from the Chase Wellfield site! This award is administered by Business Oregon with funding from the federal Bipartisan Infrastructure Law — Emerging Contaminants Fund.
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