Latest Rev Forecast, Tax Assistance, Women Veterans Conference & More

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Dear friends,

   This Friday, March 17 is a major procedural deadline of the 82nd Legislative Assembly. Any bill assigned to a regular policy committee must be scheduled for a "work session" to remain in play this session. If not, it will be "dead" and no longer considered this session. As a result, it's a particular busy week at the Capitol.

    Last week, I carried SB 787 to passage on the Senate floor. It expands the crime of assaulting a transit operator to apply when the operator is acting in the course of official duty, not just when they are literally driving the bus. SB 787 also expands the crime of aggravated harassment, a Class C felony, to include spitting and propelling other bodily or dangerous substances at a transit operator.

        - March Revenue Forecast
        - Tax Season Assistance and "Where's My Refund" Tool
        - End of SNAP Emergency Allotments: Support for Communities
        - Request for Applications to Join Wildfire Programs Advisory Council
        - Registration Open for the 2023 Oregon Women Veterans Conference
        - State Fire Marshal Invests $2.7 Million in Wildfire Risk Reduction Projects
        - Unclaimed Property Program

    I hope this information is helpful and informative for you or someone you know. As always, feel free to share your comments, questions or concerns with me by phone, mail or e-mail.

                                                              

March Revenue Forecast

    Another strong economic and revenue forecast was released at a joint virtual meeting of the Senate and House Revenue Committees last month by the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (OEA). Our state is in a better position than anticipated because of strong tax revenue and, while inflation is slowing, both employment and income are up, and the likelihood of a slow growth or soft landing situation is increasing. We aren't out of the woods yet, so we must continue to responsibly manage Oregonians' hard-earned tax dollars and protect safety nets, like the Rainy Day Fund, in the face of uncertainty.

Revenue Outlook

    2021-23 Net General Fund resources are up $487.1 million from the December 2022 forecast. The current General Fund ending balance is $4,627.6 million versus December's projected ending balance of $4,140.6 million. The ending balance is also up $4,065.2 million from the 2021 Close-of-Session estimate. Projected 2021-23 Lottery resources are up $16.4 million from the December 2022 forecast.

    Reserve accounts are currently at $414.6 million (Education Stability Fund) and $962.2 million (Rainy Day Fund). The projected ending balances for the 2021-23 Biennium reserve account are as follows: Education Stability Fund: $704.4 million and Rainy Day Fund: $1.3 billion. The Rainy Day Fund is projected to receive $2.8 billion following the end of the 2021-23 Biennium.

Kicker Outlook

    A personal kicker of $3.9 billion is projected for 2023. The projected corporate kicker of $1.5 billion is to be dedicated to K-12 education spending in the 2023-25 biennium.

Economic Outlook
(From OEA)

    Either the economic storm clouds have parted, or we are in the eye of the hurricane. Any near-term recession fears of forecasters are fading with each month of somewhat lower inflation and the continued economic boom. However, the Federal Reserve (Fed) must still navigate the choppy waters of a tight labor market, fast wage growth, easing financial conditions, and strong household finances and consumer spending. All of these are likely to keep the underlying trend in inflation above the Feds' 2 percent target for the foreseeable future.

    Last quarter our office made a mild recession starting in the second half of 2023 as the most likely outcome for the Oregon economy. At the time our office developed that forecast, there had been no slowing in inflation at all, and the Federal Reserve was actively communicating they were willing to risk a recession to bring inflation down.

    Today, there have now been a few months of relatively slower inflation. Nationally, the Consumer Price Index is running in the 4-5 percent range on an annualized basis in recent months. To be sure, this is still about twice as fast as the Fed’s target. The Fed has more work to do. However, inflation in recent months is considerably slower than the pace throughout much of last year.

    The Fed is also now taking more of a wait and see approach. Primarily they are waiting for the lagged impacts of past interest rate hikes to cool the economy and inflation in the months ahead. What this means for the forecast is that the potential recessionary dynamics are likely pushed further out. Our office is now moving the recession out of the baseline and back to an alternative scenario.

    As of today, the baseline forecast is for the soft landing and continued economic expansion. That said, the economy is still in rough waters. The sailing will be far from smooth. Ultimately it remains an uncomfortably high likelihood that the needed future interest rate increases to truly cool inflation will capsize the economy at some future date. But the combination of the clear near-term strength in the economy, and the uncertainty surrounding the exact timing of a potential recession makes doing so this far in advance challenging, if not impossible.

    Keep in mind that the role our office’s forecast serves is as a budgetary planning tool. Until a recession is much more likely than not, it is best for the forecast to reflect an expanding economy, even while highlighting the growing risks. Our office does not take it lightly putting a recession in the outlook nor taking it away. As we wrote last quarter it was not the fundamental economy that had changed but the relative assessment of the risks. Today one can make the case that the economy is fundamentally on stronger ground both from a growth perspective and somewhat lower, yet clearly still elevated inflation. This change in the economy itself changes the timing and risk assessments of the outlook.


Tax Season Assistance and "Where's My Refund" Tool
(From the Department of Revenue)

    Tax season is underway at the Oregon Department of Revenue (DOR). For faster service and potential refunds, they encourage taxpayers to file electronically. Helpful resources are available on DOR's website, including an interactive map showing locations for free tax help and access to free file tax preparation software.

    By filing a tax return, low- to moderate-income Oregonians can claim the federal Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and other state and federal refundable tax credits. The EITC is available for people making less than $59,187 in 2022. Families may be eligible for a maximum EITC benefit of $6935 on their federal tax return, and a maximum Oregon Earned Income Credit of $807 on their state tax return. Certain taxpayers without children may also be eligible for these credits.

    You may qualify for the EITC and the Oregon EIC even if you are not required to file. To receive the refundable credits, however, you must file a federal and state tax return. More information about EITC, Oregon EIC, and other refundable credits is available on the Tax Benefits for Families page of the Department of Revenue website.

    Oregonians can check the status of their state tax refund using the Where’s My Refund Tool on Revenue Online. You will need your:

• Social Security Number (SSN) or Individual Taxpayer Identification Number (ITIN);
• Filing status; or
• The exact refund amount shown on:
  • Line 46 of their Form OR-40, or
  • Line 71 of their Form OR-40-N, or
  • Line 70 of their Form OR-40-P

    Here are common reasons refunds may take longer and what to do about it:

• Filing a paper return. Paper returns take longer to process and, as a result, it takes longer to issue related refunds. File electronically instead.
• Filing electronically and requesting to receive a refund via a check takes longer. Request direct deposit instead.
• Filing more than once. Sending a paper return through the mail after e-filing will a delay a refund. Taxpayers should file just once.
• Filing during peak filing periods. Refunds are also issued slower during peak filing periods, like the last few weeks before the April 18 deadline. Filing well ahead of the deadline will help taxpayers get their refunds sooner.
• Refunds may be delayed when errors are identified on returns. Taxpayers who receive a letter requesting additional information are urged to respond promptly through Revenue Online to speed the processing of their return.

    Taxpayers who check Where’s My Refund one week after they file and receive a message saying their return is being manually processed should watch their mailbox for correspondence from the department. If it has been 12 weeks or more since you filed your return and you haven't received a letter from DOR, call 503-378-4988 or 800-356-4222 to speak with a customer service representative.


End of SNAP Emergency Allotments: Support for Communities

    My office has been receiving questions about the upcoming sunset of the federal SNAP COVID-19 emergency food benefits (SNAP Emergency Allotments). Since April 2020, most people in Oregon who receive SNAP have also received extra emergency food benefits each month on their EBT (Oregon Trail) card. This benefit was created by the federal government to help with the COVID-19 public health emergency.

    Emergency food benefits are an extra amount that is added to EBT cards around the 11th or 12th day of the month. February will be the last month emergency food benefits are allowed. For individuals, this translates to a loss of $95 or more each month for groceries. On average, Oregon families will see a 40 percent reduction in benefits once emergency assistance expires.

    For two years, the Oregon Department of Human Services (ODHS) has been issuing emergency food benefits to hundreds of thousands of households receiving SNAP. These benefits have significantly increased peoples' ability to get enough healthy food for themselves and their families. Without these emergency food benefits some in Oregon may experience hardship and struggle to meet their basic needs.

    The Oregon Food Bank (OFB), along with network partners, is working to prepare for and meet the rising need, including education about the expiration of SNAP Emergency Allotments and where folks can go to find resources. Between ongoing supply chain disruptions and declining donations from the food industry, traditional food supplies are down significantly. Prior to the pandemic, OFB's centrally sourced food donations provided 25 million meals (30 million pounds) of food annually. Their network has seen a loss of as much as 50 percent in donated food over the past year — the equivalent of 13.3 million meals (16 million pounds) of donated food. That means that food banks, free food markets, pantries and meal sites increasingly have to purchase food to fill the gap — and that's prior to 720,000 Oregonians losing funds for groceries.

    Oregonians can use OFS's “Food Finder” to find your local food bank or pantry.


Request for Applications to Join Wildfire Programs Advisory Council

    Under Section 36 of Senate Bill 762 (2021), the Legislature's Presiding Officers (President of the Senate and Speaker of the House) are to appoint a joint Wildfire Programs Advisory Council. The position on the Council representing forestland owners whose property is wholly or partially within the wildland-urban interface needs to be filled due to a vacancy. If you are interested in serving in this role, please contact me for a form to be submitted by March 22, 2023 at 5 p.m. Organizations or coalitions are encouraged to consolidate submissions.


Registration Open for the 2023 Oregon Women Veterans Conference

   Registration is now open for the 2023 Oregon Women Veterans Conference, which will be held on May 20 and 21 at the Salem Convention Center. Hosted by the Oregon Department of Veterans' Affairs, this free, biennial event is the largest gathering of women veterans in the state.

    Women veterans from every branch of military service, era and background are invited to attend this free event celebrating the service and contributions of women who answered the call to serve throughout history. The conference will include informational workshops, keynote speakers and networking opportunities.

    Women veterans make up one of the fastest-growing segments of the Oregon veteran community, with an estimated 25,000 women veterans living in the state today, representing nearly one-tenth of overall veteran population.

    The first Oregon Women Veterans Conference was held 25 years ago in 1998. It's an opportunity for women veterans to socialize, connect to resources, learn about their earned veteran benefits, and celebrate their service. Attendance is free, but registration is required. Please visit wvc.oregondva.com to register and find additional event information on lodging and sponsorship and vendor opportunities.

            


State Fire Marshal Invests $2.7 Million in Wildfire Risk Reduction Projects

    The Oregon State Fire Marshal (OSFM) recently announced a $2.7 million investment in wildfire risk reduction projects across Oregon. This strategic one-time investment is being made at the local and county levels through community wildfire protection plans (CWPP).

    Projects will happen in 25 CWPP planning areas including Lane and Douglas counties. They will include promoting wildfire-specific community risk reduction efforts, community education, defensible space projects, home assessments, media campaigns, signage, fuel mitigation programs, and grant funds.

    OSFM's fire risk reduction specialists worked with local CWPP planning groups to determine where funding was needed. This selection process was based on actionable projects, underserved communities, and the risk of fire in or near communities. The funds are part of OSFMs Fire Adapted Oregon initiative, available via Senate Bill 762 (2021).

To learn more about wildfire risk reduction and response investments, visit the agency's grants and Investments in Action webpages.


Unclaimed Property Program
(From the State Treasurer)

    Oregon's Unclaimed Property Program has been helping Oregonians access their unclaimed funds for more than 60 years. Since the State Treasury began managing the program in 2021, its goal has been to connect more Oregonians with money the state is protecting on their behalf.

    Unclaimed property is any asset — such as uncashed checks, forgotten security deposits, tax refunds, and more — being held by a business, nonprofit, or government entity for which the owner cannot be found. When an organization is unable to contact or return unclaimed property to an owner after some time, usually one to three years, they must report the property to Treasury to be held until claimed by its rightful owner. Over the last 25 years, the Unclaimed Property Program has returned more than $500 million back to individuals.

    With nearly 1 in 7 people having unclaimed property, the State Treasury recently launched "Checks Without Claims" initiative, an effort that will result in more than $10 million in unclaimed funds proactively returned to over 18,000 individuals.

    You can visit the Unclaimed Property Program website and search for any unclaimed property under your name. Searching is free and easy, and you never know how much unclaimed funds the State Treasury might be holding for you.