May 11th COVID-19 Update

May 11, 2021

Dear Neighbors and Friends,

I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends in these difficult times.

Today’s COVID report provides a more realistic picture than yesterday’s incomplete report of weekend activity.  You’ll see that the week-over-week numbers are coming down.  The only exception is an unusually high number of reported deaths (16).  We haven’t yet received individual information about the 16 (it’ll come tomorrow morning), which is usually a sign that they are late-reports from the CDC, and more research on them needs to be done.  I suspect that many of those will turn out to be a catching up of earlier unreported deaths.

The big news today is an announced change in the way that Risk Levels will be calculated, starting a week from Friday.  As you’ll see below, the calculation is shifting to a focus on vaccination levels.  The higher the percentage of vaccinated residents it has, the sooner the county will move to Lower Risk status. 

This makes sense to me, given the clear effectiveness of the vaccines at diminishing severe effects of the virus.  The more people are vaccinated, the more things can open up safely.  It should also give people more incentive to get vaccinated.

However, as you can imagine, it will be controversial, particularly in those counties with lower vaccination rates and higher levels of vaccine hesitancy.  This could well generate even more resentment against the Governor. 

Still, I think it’s the right call, as long as we really can continue to vaccinate at our current rate and make sure that there is ever-increasing outreach to those who have difficulty finding the time or transportation to get vaccinated.  (We did learn today that President Biden has made a deal with Uber and Lyft to provide free transportation for anyone who wants to get vaccinated.)

And as you’ll see below, once the state as a whole has reached the threshold where 70% of those eligible (16 and over) have been vaccinated, we will be able to dispense with all or nearly all restrictions everywhere in the state.  With that many people vaccinated, the fear of unsustainable pressure on our medical system should be over.  

At the current vaccination rate (or even if it goes down somewhat), we should hit that point before the Fourth of July, perhaps as early as sometime next month. 

This is all potentially good news.  However, I need to stress that this disease will remain very dangerous on an individual basis for those who remain unvaccinated.  Today’s Oregonian includes a really tragic story (sorry, it’s only accessible for subscribers) of a 46-year-old middle school teacher in Estacada, who just died of severe COVID.  As a teacher, she of course could have been vaccinated months ago but chose not to.  According to her mother, she didn’t like going to the doctor and was afraid of shots.  She left behind two teenage sons and many students who loved her.  She appears to be the first and so far the only teacher to have died of COVID-19.

As we saw in last week’s “Breakthrough Case” report, it’s extremely rare now for someone who has been vaccinated to die of this disease, nearly nonexistent for anyone under 70.  If you know anyone who has yet to be vaccinated, please do what you can to help them get vaccinated. 

As I mentioned the other day, the large vaccination sites are now accessible on a walk-in basis.  The same is true of most pharmacies.  And now they don't need to return to the same location for their second dose--all they need is their vaccination card with the information about their first dose. Please spread the word.

Please stay safe nd let me know if you have any questions about information in today’s newsletter.

TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE

• New COVID Cases: OHA reports 660 new COVID cases today.  The cumulative number of cases in Oregon since the beginning of the pandemic is 192,416.
• Variant COVID Cases: The reported variant case numbers remain unchanged from the most recent update.  They remain 311 (up from 168) cases of the B.1.1.7 (UK) variant, 18 cases (up from 13) of the P.1 (Brazilian) variant, and 28 (up from 18) cases of the B.1.351 (South African) variant.  In addition, we are now seeing 159 (up from 177) cases of the B.1.427 variant, and 566 (up from 519) of the B.1.429 variant.  OHA is now producing a Variant Tableau dashboard providing current variant case numbers for the state as a whole and for various parts of the state.
• Positive Test Results: OHA reported 874 positive tests today. The cumulative total of positive test results since the beginning of the pandemic is now 276,764.
• Total Tests: OHA reported an additional 12,721 tests today. Our cumulative total of reported tests is now 4,851,066.
• Positivity Rate: The test positivity ratio for Oregon today is 6.9%.
• Hospitalization Information:
  • Patients Currently with Confirmed COVID-19: 345 (19 more than yesterday)
  • ICU Patients Confirmed w COVID-19: 89 (11 more than yesterday).
  • Available ICU Beds: 132 (27 fewer than yesterday)
  • Other Available Beds: 606 (77 fewer than yesterday).
  • Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 43 (5 more than yesterday).
  • Available Ventilators: 781 (13 fewer than yesterday).
• Deaths: I’m sorry to report 16 additional COVID deaths today.  The total number of COVID deaths in Oregon is now 2,549.
• Vaccinations:
  • As of the end of yesterday, here are the latest numbers:
    • New Immunizations Reported Today: 34,415
      • 17,961 were conducted and reported yesterday
      • 16,454 were conducted earlier, but the reports were received yesterday (there can potentially be a three-day window for reporting)
      • The 7-day running average is now 34,869 doses per day.
    • Total First and Second Doses Administered So Far: 3,378,165
      • 1,850,098 Pfizer doses
      • 1,413,161 Moderna doses
      • 113,435 Johnson & Johnson doses
    • Total Oregonians vaccinated so far: 1,994,968
      • 1,490,512 now fully vaccinated with two doses
    • To date, 4,264,554 doses of vaccine have been delivered to sites across Oregon. (That’s 196,950 more than yesterday, for a total of 229,570.)
      • 79.2% of these doses have been administered so far. The national average is now 78.8%.
      • 48.9% of Oregonians have received at least one dose (56.6% of those 16 and older).
      • 36.3% of Oregonians are now fully vaccinated (41.9% of those 16 and older).
      • For more details, including the demographics of those receiving the vaccine and the counties in which the vaccines are being administered, here is a link to more information about the vaccine and vaccination protocols.
      • Here is the daily vaccination tracker from Bloomberg.
      • And here is a link to each county's vaccination website. It provides access information for those in Category 1a and 1b.

• Additional Brief Updates:
  • Now that we’re on the verge of approval of the Pfizer vaccine for young adolescents (we’re expecting approval and guidelines from the CDC and Western States Safety Review Workgroup tomorrow), what does it mean for us here in Oregon. Here's a look.
  • And here’s some national perspective. Some states aren’t waiting for the CDC guidelines but are already allowing parents to schedule shots for their kids. Here's more.
  • Here’s a New York Times story about strategies for getting the vaccine to younger teens.
  • A recent Associated Press poll suggests that many of those still unvaccinated will require convincing.
  • Inside Higher Education reports on a new study from the University of Colorado showing that most of the COVID cases on campus are being caused by a small number of “supercarriers”:just 2% of infected individuals are carrying 90% of the virus.

Governor Announces Change in Determining COVID Risk Levels

Now that vaccines are becoming available and administered widely here in Oregon, and it’s clear that they are the key to bringing down hospitalization and death rates, the Governor and her medical advisors have decided to change the way that COVID restrictions are applied across the state.  The focus will shift from low infection rates and test positivity rates to vaccination rates as the best metric to gauge public safety.

In a press release issued today,the Governor announced a two-prong strategy for getting our economy back to “normalcy” by the end of June:

1. Once we’ve vaccinated (at least one dose) 70% of eligible population (16 and up) statewide:

• Risk levels, COVID metrics, and restrictions will no longer be needed
• At the current rate of vaccinations, we should get there by early- to mid-June; even at a somewhat lower rate, we should still get there by the national goal of July 4.
• We can then dispense with capacity restrictions and most other restrictions. Even if we haven’t attained “herd immunity,” those who have been vaccinated will be safe enough to no longer need most of those precautions.  We’ll await further CDC guidance to see if any precautions (e.g., masking) will be needed.

2. Once they’ve vaccinated (with at least one dose) 65% of their eligible residents, Counties can move to “Lower-Risk” status

• This will begin on May 21.
• Even if their infection rates place them higher, counties that hit the 65% vaccination mark will be allowed to go to “Lower Risk” level.
• Counties must show that they have a plan for equitable distribution of the vaccines to their remaining residents.
• Again, once the state as a whole has hit the 70% threshold, all counties will be free of the Risk Level status.

Here’s a table showing where all the counties (and the state as a whole) are in meeting the 70%/65% vaccination thresholds at this point:

Percent of Eligible Residents Vaccinated 5/11/2021

The Governor held a press conference today, joined by medical advisors, that allowed her to go into more detail about these changes.  You can watch it on YouTube. (Video starts at the 18:09 mark.)

She acknowledged that the recent “surge” in infections and hospitalizations appears to have been checked as a result of increased vaccinations and the recent restrictions. OHA Director Pat Allen provided information about the progress we’re continuing to make with vaccinations (including new vaccination rates that are now growing much faster for Black and Latinx Oregonians than they are for White Oregonians).

This week, Grant, Lincoln, and Wasco counties will move from High Risk to Moderate Risk. Effective this Friday, 21 counties will remain in High Risk, seven counties will be in Moderate Risk, and 8 counties will be in Lower Risk. 

A complete list of counties and their risk levels is available here.

You can see the specific activities allowed for each risk level in this chart.

Based on these new procedures and the progress we appear to be making, it seems highly unlikely that any counties will be returning to Extreme Risk anytime in the future.

OHA Will Hold a Q&A on COVID-19 Variants

OHA has scheduled a Facebook Live on Wednesday at 11:30 to answer questions on the COVID variants.  OHA Senior Health Advisor, Dr. Melissa Sutton, and OHSU Assistant Professor of Medicine, Dr. Bill Messer, will be on hand to answer your questions.  You can join them here.

Where Are Today’s New Cases?

If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive cases reported today, the overall number of new cases reported is 660.  Here is today’s breakdown by county:

Benton (10)

Clackamas (60)

Columbia (2)

Crook (10)

Deschutes (64)

Douglas (14)

Grant (1)

Harney (2)

Hood River (1)

Jackson (44)

Jefferson (5)

Josephine (12)

Klamath (43)

Lake (4)

Lane (52)

Linn (22)

Malheur (4)

Marion (57)

Morrow (3)

Multnomah (94)

Polk (8)

Tillamook (3)

Umatilla (27)

Union (3)

Wallowa (1)

Wasco (2)

Washington (90)

Wheeler (2)

Yamhill (17)

And the Deaths:

OHA has not yet released individual information about today’s reported 16 deaths.  It will presumably be released tomorrow morning.

Want to See Past Newsletters?

If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there.  Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.

AND FINALLY,

Here again are some resources that you will find useful

• You can view the reopening status of all 36 counties here.
• Here is the OHA’s coronavirus page, with links to a number of resources. 
• Oregon's Office of Emergency Management now has a website for information about COVID-19.
• Multnomah County has an excellent website with lots of really important advice and guidance.
• Here’s one from the Governor’s Office.
• The Employment Department has put together a webpage with Q&A’s on a number of employment issues related to COVID-19 (e.g., eligibility for Unemployment Insurance benefits).
• The Oregon Education Department has a site for COVID-19 updates.
• The Department of Corrections has a COVID tracking website.

If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource.  We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction. 

Best,

Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23

email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-281-0608
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301