April 2nd COVID-19 Newsletter

Michael Dembrow

April 2, 2021

Friends and Neighbors,

I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends in these difficult times.

COVID case counts are down a bit today, but still twice as high as they had been a couple of weeks ago.  Hospitalizations remain higher than they had been as well, foretelling a potential increase in COVID deaths.  For now, though, we’re not seeing an increase in deaths from the disease; in fact, today there are none reported.

As you’ll see in the summary of the latest COVID forecast report further down in the newsletter, we’re now in a race to get more vaccines into the arms of Oregonians before they fall victim to the rising case counts.  It seems clear that people are letting their guards down, just as new COVID variants are showing up in Oregon.  This is reflective of trends that we’re seeing all across the country.  We remain in much better shape than most states, as we remain largely respectful of the necessary precautions.  Nevertheless, we are not immune from “COVID Fatigue.”

We are indeed in a race.  Fortunately, right now we’re getting very large amounts of vaccine coming into the state (though not as much as other states, as you’ll see below).  It now appears that the big losses of Johnson & Johnson doses due to errors at the manufacturing plant will not slow down our supply pipeline at all.  Indeed, as you’ll see in the newsletter, the Governor is again expanding the pool of those eligible to receive the vaccine, extending to the household members of essential workers.

As planned, 70% of those 65 and older have now received at least their first vaccination.

And I’m happy to report that I haven’t myself felt any side-effects from the second dose that I received yesterday (as long as no one punches me in the arm!).

Please stay safe, and let me know if you have any questions about information in today’s newsletter.

 

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TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE

  • New COVID Cases: OHA reports 499 new COVID cases today.  The cumulative number of cases in Oregon since the beginning of the pandemic is 166,013.
  • Variant COVID Cases: OHA reports no additional cases of the B.1.1.7 (UK) variant in Oregon today.  The total number of such cases is still 19, and the P.1 (Brazilian) variant is still at 1.  There are still 0 reported cases of  the B.1.351 (the South African) variants. OHA is now testing for and has discovered cases of two other variants, the B.1427 (45 cases), and B.1.429 (158 cases).
  • Positive Test Results: OHA reported 681 positive tests today. The cumulative total of positive test results since the beginning of the pandemic is now 240,614.
  • Total Tests: OHA reported an additional 15,134 tests today. Our cumulative total of reported tests is now 4,224,745.
  • Positivity Rate: The test positivity ratio for Oregon today is 4.5%.
  • Hospitalization Information:
    • Patients Currently with Confirmed COVID-19: 157 (2 more than yesterday)
    • ICU Patients Confirmed w COVID-19: 42 (3 more than yesterday).
    • Available ICU Beds: 164 (6 fewer than yesterday)
    • Other Available Beds: 576 (5 fewer than yesterday).
    • Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 17 (1 more than yesterday).
    • Available Ventilators: 787 (5 fewer than yesterday).
  • Deaths: I’m happy to report 0 additional COVID deaths today.  The total number of COVID deaths in Oregon remains at 2,385.
  • Vaccinations:
    • As of the end of yesterday, here are the latest numbers:
      • New Immunizations Reported Today: 46,154.
        • 29,325 were conducted yesterday
        • 16,829 were conducted earlier, but the reports were received yesterday (there can potentially be a three-day window for reporting)
      • Total First and Second Doses Administered So Far: 1,899,238
        • 962,739 Pfizer doses
        • 890,155 Moderna doses
        • 45,256 Johnson & Johnson doses
      • Total Oregonians vaccinated so far: 1,213,672
        • 723,179 now fully vaccinated with two doses
      • To date, 2,406,845 doses of vaccine have been delivered to sites across Oregon (40,060 more doses than yesterday for a total of 300,890 so far this week).
  • Additional Brief Updates:
    • Here's an article about today’s press conference, where the Governor cautioned Oregonians about the growing risk of COVID infections that we’re now experiencing.
    • For some reason Oregon is getting much fewer doses of the COVID vaccine than other states. The OHA Director wants the Governor to demand more.   Read here. 
    • A new report from the American Health Care Association shows the tremendous reduction in COVID that we’ve seen in nursing homes since the vaccines have begun to be administered: a 96% decline in cases and a 91% decline in deaths. Read more here.
    • The CDC is now saying that people who are fully vaccinated should be safe to travel without needing to quarantine (though they must observe basic safety measures such as mask-wearing.
    • OPB looks at the difference between the legislatures in the two neighboring states of Oregon and Washington. In many ways their political demographics and political divides are the same, yet their sessions have been very different. Explore why that may be.

 

Coming This Saturday: April Constituent Coffee

The Saturday is the first Saturday of the month, which means it’s time for a zoom constituent coffee.  It’ll be another chance for you to let me know your priorities and suggestions, hear about what’s going on at this point in the session, find out more about what’s in the works, and ask any questions that you have. 

It will go from 9 am to 10:30 am.  You can sign up here.  Hope to see you there!

 

Governor Announces Expanded Vaccination Eligibility

The Governor announced today that Oregon is expanding vaccine eligibility beyond frontline workers to include all of their household members.  She also announced that Oregon is expanding its criteria of underlying health conditions to match the CDC’s extended list of underlying conditions. 

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You can read the details of the announcement here.

 

Latest Epidemiological Forecast Released:  Growing Concern

The latest OHA COVID-19 forecast, with support from the Institute for Disease Modeling underscores the trend that we’ve been seeing in the daily reports: transmission of the COVID virus has been increasing over the last few weeks.  The Re (estimated reproduction rate) is 1.12, meaning that every person infected with the virus is spreading it to more than one additional person.  This is a big increase over the rates that we had been seeing since the beginning of the year—rates that had been consistently below 1.0, which had been driving our case counts down.

The forecast gives us three possible scenarios for the immediate future:

Scenario 1:  Transmission Continues As-Is

If the transmission rate as estimated for March 17 persisted.

  • We would see a steady increase in diagnosed cases.
  • For the two-week period between April 7 and April 20, the projected number of new diagnosed cases would rise to 130 per 100,000 people. This rate translates to a daily average of 390 cases.
  • New hospitalizations would increase to 17 per day by April 20.

Scenario 2: Transmission Increases by 20%

This scenario is intended to illustrate what would happen over the next month if, due to some combination of changing behavior and the spread of more infectious variants, the rate of transmission were to increase.

  • New diagnosed cases would reach 195 per 100,000 people for the two-week period between April 7 and April 20; this rate translates to a daily average of 585 cases.
  • New hospitalizations would increase to 27 per day by April 20.

Scenario 3: Transmission Decreases by 20%

This scenario is intended to illustrate what would happen over the next month if people became more adherent to 8 prevention recommendations -- wearing a mask, physical distancing, and avoiding indoor gatherings, and if more infectious variants saw only limited growth.

  • New diagnosed cases would fall to 86 per 100,000 people for the two-week period between April 7 and April 20; this rate translates to a daily average of 260 cases.
  • New hospitalizations would decrease to 11 per day by April 20.

Obviously, the hope is for Scenario 3, or at least Scenario 1.  As you can see from these scenarios, until the vaccines are fully deployed over the next 2-3 months, it will be important for people to remain careful and hold on a little longer.  That’s the way to keep themselves, their neighbors, and their loved ones safe until vaccinations have at least hit the 70% mark.

The analysis points to data showing the mask-wearing in Oregon is reducing slightly, as is social distancing, while travel and mobility are increasing.  They modelers believe that it is likely that these behaviors are helping to drive up the numbers.  Even more troubling than the increase in cases is the increase in COVID hospitalizations. 

 

Where Are Today’s New Cases?

If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive cases reported today, the overall number of new cases reported is 499.  A little more than 1/3 of today’s cases are in the Portland area.  Here is today’s breakdown by county:

Baker (8)

Benton (5)

Clackamas (26)

Clatsop (2)

Columbia (13)

Coos (12)

Crook (5)

Curry (7)

Deschutes (24)

Douglas (14)

Harney (5)

Jackson (29)

Jefferson (3)

Josephine (10)

Klamath (10)

Lake (1)

Lane (43)

Lincoln (10)

Linn (14)

Malheur (1)

Marion (30)

Multnomah (111)

Polk (16)

Tillamook (3)

Umatilla (7)

Union (6)

Wallowa (1)

Washington (52)

Yamhill (13)

 

And the Deaths:

There are no deaths reported today.

 

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Want to See Past Newsletters?

If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there.  Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.

 

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AND FINALLY,

Here again are some resources that you will find useful:

If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource.  We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction. 

Best,

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Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23


email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-281-0608
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301