November 14th COVID-19 Update

Michael Dembrow

November 14, 2020

I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends in these difficult times.

Since it’s Saturday, you’ll find only partial reporting on some of the metrics tracking coronavirus in Oregon.  Instead of giving us the positive test results alone, over the weekend OHA combines those numbers with the relatively small number of those who are presumed to be positive based on their symptoms and close proximity to someone who has tested positive, but whose test results have not yet come back.  But it still gives us a good idea of what’s going on. 

And the news again is not good.  Case counts are again over 1,000, and we’ve lost another six Oregonians. 

We don’t get hospitalization numbers over the weekend, so we won’t know what the rate of increase is till Monday.  But with these ongoing high case counts, it’s likely that the number of severe infections is also rising and the number of available beds reducing.

One bright note for today is a very high number of tests recorded.  That caused the percentage of positive test results to dip back below 10% today.

As I’ve been doing on Saturdays for a while, I’m also taking the opportunity to look back at what’s going on in our individual counties on a week-by-week basis over the last month.  It allows us to see the trends in the individual counties, as well as the trends for the state as a whole.  We can see that counties and the state as a whole are seeing levels of new cases and positivity rates are again reaching record levels.

Please let me know if you have any questions about today’s newsletter. 

TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE

  • Positive Cases: OHA reports that 1,097 additional Oregonians have tested positive or are presumed positive (see below for definition) for COVID. OHA does not report positive test results alone over the weekend. I’ll be able to readjust the numbers on Monday to remove the presumed positives. The cumulative total for those testing positive and presumed positive since the beginning of the pandemic is 56,018.
  • Total Tests: The number of reported tests has increased by 11,162. Today’s increase in total results also includes presumed positives in the total results, so may be a little high. I’ll readjust the numbers on Monday.  The cumulative total is now 951,565.
  • Ratio: The percentage of total tests that have been reported positive today is 9.8%.  The national ratio today is 9.9%.
  • Deaths: I’m sorry to have to report 6 additional COVID deaths today. You can read about the Oregonians we lost further down in the newsletter. The total number of COVID deaths in Oregon is now 759.
  • Hospitalized: OHA does not report on hospitalizations over the weekend. The cumulative number of those who have been hospitalized with COVID thus remains at 3,628.
  • Presumptive Cases: OHA is including “presumptive COVID-19 cases” in its daily reports, consistent with recently amended guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A presumptive case is someone who does not yet have a positive PCR test but is showing symptoms and has had close contact with a confirmed case. If they later test positive by PCR, those will be recategorized as confirmed cases.  
  • Other Hospital Information: OHA DOES NOT REPORT hospitalization information over the weekend, so the numbers below are the same as Friday’s.
    • Patients Currently with COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 356 (14 more than yesterday). Of those, 308 have already received a positive test back.
    • Available ICU Beds: 131 (24 fewer than yesterday)
    • Other Available Beds: 611 (69 fewer than yesterday).
    • ICU Patients w COVID-19 Symptoms: 70 (3 more than yesterday).
    • COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 30 (3 more than yesterday).
    • Available Ventilators: 740 (12 fewer than yesterday).
  • Dashboard:
  • Today’s National Numbers:
  • Additional Brief Updates:
    • The Oregonian reports today on the Governor’s warning that those who willfully violate the restrictions may face criminal penalties—though she hopes that it won’t come to that. In a meeting that some of us had with her today, she reiterated her reluctance to have to use the police in this way—but was insistent that if people don’t take these orders seriously, we’re all in trouble.
    • And here’s another detailed story on the Governor’s new order from OPB. 

What’s Going On In the Counties?

Each Saturday I’m tracking how individual counties are doing, especially now that we’re seeing big increases in cases around the state. The key metrics that OHA is watching are the number of positive test results (per 100K residents) and  the percentage of positive test results among all tests administered; the latter will be the more important way for us to see if the infection rate is increasing as a result of reopening and increased testing. (They also are looking at hospital capacity and changes in hospitalization rates, but I don’t have that information by county.)

But first, I want to reproduce the current INTERACTIVE COUNTY DASHBOARD that the OHA has on its website.  It shows case counts and total testing by county since the pandemic, scaled to cases per 100,000, so that we can see how the infection is penetrating the various counties, irrespective of their population size.  This is what we see as of November 6: 

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This is a useful view because it allows us to see the infection rate within each county, irrespective of their total populations.  Remember, though, that these are CUMULATIVE cases since the beginning of the pandemic.  If you look at the rankings, you can see the lingering effects of outbreaks at workplaces and other congregate settings that occurred months ago.  It also means that more recent outbreaks may not lead to big changes in the above rankings. However, with the recent surge leading to sharp spikes in a few small counties, this time we do see some big jumps in rankings.

While the cumulative infection rate is an important metric to look at, I believe an even more important metric is the rate of test results coming in positive.  The more you test, the lower that number should be, as you’re not just testing people with clear symptoms of COVID. Our school reopening target is 5%. Anything over 10% is cause for real concern.  This week our state average is well over that level, and more than half the counties are over 10% this week.

Here’s a table I’ve created that shows county rankings by the most recent week’s positivity rate.  When you compare it to the previous table. you get a better sense of what’s happening in the individual counties from week to week. The most striking changes tend to come from low-population frontier counties (such as Gilliam, Grant, and Baker), where a few new cases can make a real difference and move these counties right up to the top of the rankings. 

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Looking at the tables below, showing the new cases, new tests, positivity rates, and deaths in the different counties, we can see what’s been going on over the last week.  You’ll see the effects of the record number of new cases, which are unfortunately outpacing the number of new tests.  As a result, you’ll see a return to high positivity rates for individual counties and for the state as a whole. Oregon’s statewide positivity rate for the week is barely below that 10% danger zone.

In order to make the current trends in positive percentages more obvious, I’m again showing you the week-over-week percentages, along with the overall percentage of positive cases for each county since the beginning of the pandemic. 

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For additional data on the counties, here is the latest County Watch List Data. It shows infections per 100K, along with the number and rate of “sporadic cases” (also known as “community spread cases”): those that cannot be traced to a particular source.

If you’re interested in seeing an even more granular picture of what’s happening on the ground, cumulatively and over the last week, The Oregonian has created an interactive map of cases by zip code.

Saturday Wildfire Recovery/Response Update

Nothing new to report on the firefighting front today now that the rains have returned in force.  Again, you can follow the remaining firefighting effort at the State of Oregon Fires and Hotspots Dashboard.

The Office of Emergency Management is no longer giving us regular reports on wildfire recovery.  However, for the very latest numbers, OEM is now maintaining a real-time Wildfire and Recovery Tracker that will give you up-to-the-moment statistics on a variety of metrics related to recovery efforts. 

Where Are Today’s New Cases?

If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive” cases reported today, the overall number of new cases for today is 1,076. More than half of the new cases are from outside the Portland Metro Area today.  Here is the breakdown by county for today:

Baker (11)

Benton (17)

Clackamas (144)

Clatsop (5)

Columbia (11)

Coos (14)

Crook (8)

Deschutes (47)

Douglas (23)

Gilliam (1)

Harney (2)

Hood River (3)

Jackson (109)

Jefferson (11)

Josephine (9)

Klamath (20)

Lake (2)

Lane (77)

Lincoln (10)

Linn (34)

Malheur (19)

Marion (59)

Morrow (6)

Multnomah (146)

Polk (15)

Tillamook (4)

Umatilla (39)

Union (5)

Wasco (17)

Washington (191)

Yamhill (37)

And the Deaths

Oregon’s 754th COVID-19 death is an 87-year-old woman in Multnomah County who tested positive on September 24 and died on October 8 in his residence. He had underlying conditions.

Oregon’s 755th COVID-19 death is a 96-year-old man in Multnomah County who tested positive on October 28 and died on November 3 in his residence. Presence of underlying conditions is being confirmed.

Oregon’s 756th COVID-19 death is an 89-year-old woman in Multnomah County who tested positive on October 28 and died on November 3 in her residence. Presence of underlying conditions is being confirmed.

Oregon’s 757th COVID-19 death is an 87-year-old man in Lane County who tested positive on September 29 and died on November 9 in his residence. Presence of underlying conditions is being confirmed.

Oregon’s 758th COVID-19 death is a 69-year-old woman in Multnomah County who tested positive on October 5 and died on November 1 in her residence. She had underlying conditions.

Oregon’s 759th COVID-19 death is an 84-year-old man in Clackamas County who tested positive on September 25 and died on November 9 at Providence Portland Medical Center. He had underlying conditions.  

Additional Graphs:

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Want to See Past Newsletters?

If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there.  Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.

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AND FINALLY,

Here again are some resources that you will find useful:

If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource.  We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction. 

Best,

dembrow signature

Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23


email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-986-1723
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301