October 31st COVID-19 Update

Michael Dembrow

October 31, 2020

I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends in these difficult times.

Since it’s Saturday, you’ll find only partial reporting on some of the metrics tracking coronavirus in Oregon.  Instead of giving us the positive test results alone, over the weekend OHA combines those numbers with the relatively small number of those who are presumed to be positive based on their symptoms and close proximity to someone who has tested positive, but whose test results have not yet come back.  But it still gives us a good idea of what’s going on. 

Today’s reported numbers show a continuation of the very high case counts that we’ve been seeing lately. Today didn’t set a record, but it’s up at #3 or #4 since the beginning of the pandemic.  Testing rates were up a little today, and as a result, the state’s overall positivity rate did go down a little today. 

We also don’t get hospitalization numbers over the weekend, so we won’t know what the rate of increase is till Monday.  Deaths are reported, however, and, sadly, OHA has reported the death of fourteen additional Oregonians from COVID.  This is a very high number for Oregon. 

We’re again seeing very high national COVID case numbers and COVID deaths reported today.

On the wildfire front, the news again is good.  The big Holiday Farm Fire east of Eugene is now 100% contained and has been removed from the watch list.

As I’ve been doing on Saturdays for a while, I’m also taking the opportunity to look back at what’s going on in our individual counties on a week-by-week basis over the last month.  It allows us to see the trends in the individual counties, as well as the trends for the state as a whole.  We can see that the number of new cases and positivity rates are spiking once again in most counties and in the state as a whole.

On a more positive note, I hope you and your loved ones are having a very Happy Halloween!!!  I’m really happy to say that my neighborhood has been filled with more trick-or-treaters than I’ve seen in years.  We had our table at the end of the driveway for the kids to pick up their candy, and so did our neighbors.  It was sociable, safe, and a lot of fun (of course, it helped that the weather was perfect).   Hope yours was great as well. 

TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE

  • Positive Cases: OHA reports that 555 additional Oregonians have tested positive or are presumed positive (see below for definition) for COVID. OHA does not report positive test results alone over the weekend. I’ll be able to readjust the numbers on Monday to remove the presumed positives. The cumulative total for those testing positive and presumed positive since the beginning of the pandemic is 44,291.
  • Total Tests: The number of reported tests has increased by 9,084. Today’s increase in total results also includes presumed positives in the total results, so may be a little high. I’ll readjust the numbers on Monday.  The cumulative total is now 861,949.
  • Ratio: The percentage of total tests that are positive today is 6.1%.  The national ratio today is 6.6%.
  • Deaths: I’m sorry to have to report 14 additional COVID deaths today. You can read about the Oregonians we lost further down in the newsletter. The total number of COVID deaths in Oregon is now 689.
  • Hospitalized: OHA does not report on hospitalizations over the weekend. The cumulative number of those who have been hospitalized with COVID thus remains at 3,204.
  • Presumptive Cases: OHA is including “presumptive COVID-19 cases” in its daily reports, consistent with recently amended guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A presumptive case is someone who does not yet have a positive PCR test but is showing symptoms and has had close contact with a confirmed case. If they later test positive by PCR, those will be recategorized as confirmed cases.
  • Other Hospital Information: OHA DOES NOT REPORT hospitalization information over the weekend, so the numbers below are the same as Friday’s.
    • Patients Currently with COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 211 (24 fewer than yesterday). Of those, 165 have already received a positive test back.
    • Available ICU Beds: 175 (23 more than yesterday)
    • Other Available Beds: 675 (45 more than yesterday).
    • ICU Patients w COVID-19 Symptoms: 61 (1 fewer than yesterday).
    • COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 23 (same as yesterday).
    • Available Ventilators: 747 (same as yesterday).
  • Dashboard:
  • Today’s National Numbers:
  • Additional Brief Updates:
    • FEMA has begun another big outreach effort to let evacuees know about the Other Needs Assistance (ONA) Program, which provides immediate, emergency assistance to help them meet short-term needs. It includes funding for transportation, personal property losses, childcare, medical and dental expenses, moving and storage, and other miscellaneous expenses.  It is available to all households that have suffered losses where at least one household member is a U.S. citizen or a legal resident.  You can read more here in English and in Spanish.
    • The Statesman-Journal’s Zach Urness has an article today about the costs of firefighting this year.  You can see how much has been spent so far on each of the major fires.
    • When the Legislature goes back into session next year, we can expect that a major topic of controversy will be around the causes of this year’s wildfires and the steps that need to be taken to minimize a repetition of this year’s catastrophic events. Setting aside for the moment the role of climate change in creating the weather and ecological conditions that produced these fires, much of the debate involves our forest practices: specifically, whether or not a higher level of timber harvesting would have reduced the risk. Some version of that argument has been put forward by the industrial timber industry for some time.  Two articles that came out today are questioning the correctness of that argument.  One is a piece that Tony Schick did for OPB and ProPublic (part of a longer series on forestry in the Northwest), entitled “Despite What The Logging Industry Says, Cutting Down Trees Isn’t Stopping Catastrophic Wildfires." The second is from the Oregonian’s Ted Sickinger, entitled “Oregon’s Labor Day Wildfires Raise Controversial Questions about How Forests Are Managed.”   I’m sure there’ll be more, so stay tuned.

What’s Going On In the Counties?

Each Saturday I’m tracking how individual counties are doing, especially now that we’re seeing big increases in cases around the state. The key metrics that OHA is watching are the number of positive test results (per 100K residents) and  the percentage of positive test results among all tests administered; the latter will be the more important way for us to see if the infection rate is increasing as a result of reopening and increased testing. (They also are looking at hospital capacity and changes in hospitalization rates, but I don’t have that information by county.)

But first, I want to reproduce the current INTERACTIVE COUNTY DASHBOARD that the OHA has on its website.  It shows case counts and total testing by county since the pandemic, scaled to cases per 100,000, so that we can see how the infection is penetrating the various counties, irrespective of their population size.  This is what we see as of October 30: 

a

This is a useful view because it allows us to see the infection rate within each county, irrespective of their total populations.  Remember, though, that these are CUMULATIVE cases since the beginning of the pandemic.  If you look at the rankings, you can see the lingering effects of outbreaks at workplaces and other congregate settings that occurred months ago.  It also means that more recent outbreaks may not lead to big changes in the above rankings. In fact, there are only a handful of moves up or down by one or two spots.

While the cumulative infection rate is an important metric to look at, I believe an even more important metric is the rate of test results coming in positive.  The more you test, the lower that number should be, as you’re not just testing people with clear symptoms of COVID. Anything over 10% is cause for real concern.  Our school reopening target is 5%.

Here’s a table I’ve created that shows county rankings by the most recent week’s positivity rate.  When you compare it to the previous table. you get a better sense of what’s happening in the individual counties from week to week. The most striking changes tend to come from low-population frontier counties (such as Sherman, Harney, and Lake), where a few new cases can make a real difference and move these counties right up to the top of the rankings. 

b

Looking at the tables below, showing the new cases, new tests, positivity rates, and deaths in the different counties, we can see what’s been going on over the last week.  You’ll see the effects of the record number of new cases, which are unfortunately outpacing the number of new tests.  As a result, you’ll see a return to high positivity rates for individual counties and for the state as a whole.

In order to make the current trends in positive percentages more obvious, I’m again showing you the week-over-week percentages, along with the overall percentage of positive cases for each county since the beginning of the pandemic. 

cdef

For additional data on the counties, here is the latest County Watch List Data.   It shows infections per 100K, along with the number and rate of “sporadic cases” (also known as “community spread cases”): those that cannot be traced to a particular source.

If you’re interested in seeing an even more granular picture of what’s happening on the ground, cumulatively and over the last week, The Oregonian has created an interactive map of cases by zip code.

Saturday Wildfire Recovery/Response Update

ODF reports further gains in wildfire containment today.  The Holiday Farm Fire east of Eugene is now considered 100% contained and is off the list of active fires.  Containment of the Lionshead Fire, west of Warm Springs in the Cascades, has further increased slightly from to 81%.

You can find maps and up-to-the-minute details on the individual fires at OEM’s State of Oregon Fires and Hotspots Dashboard.

The Oregon Emergency Management has just sent us its latest update on wildfire response. Here are the updated statistics regarding Human Impacts:

  • The number of fatalities (9) and missing persons (1) remains the same.
  • The number of residences reported destroyed remains at 4,009. More than 1,400 structures other than residences have also been destroyed.
  • According to the Red Cross, the number of Oregonians in emergency housing has continued to go down over the last few days. 1,281 Oregonians now remain in emergency housing.  Of those, 85 are living in RVs and tents, and 1,196 are in hotels/motels and other short-term settings.  There are no evacuees living in indoor congregate shelters any longer.
  • The number of Oregonians who have registered with FEMA for individual assistance has continued to increase and is currently at 23,872. FEMA has already approved for $22.6 million in assistance grants.
  • Still, if you know of anyone who has NOT yet registered, please direct them the following:

Where Are Today’s New Cases?

If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive” cases reported today, the overall number of new cases for today is 555. Nearly half of today’s new cases are again from the Portland Tri-County area.  Here is the breakdown by county for today:

Baker (1)

Clackamas (46)

Clatsop (3)

Coos (4)

Curry (2)

Deschutes (31)

Douglas (3)

Gilliam (5)

Harney (2)

Hood River (2)

Jackson (12)

Jefferson (2)

Josephine (4)

Klamath (3)

Lane (65)

Linn (19)

Malheur (10)

Marion (54)

Morrow (3)

Multnomah (138)

Polk (14)

Tillamook (2)

Umatilla (15)

Union (6)

Wallowa (4)

Wasco (6)

Washington (86)

Yamhill (13)

And the Deaths

Oregon’s 676th COVID-19 death is a 91-year-old man in Marion County who tested positive on Sept. 36 and died on September 26 at Legacy Good Samaritan Hospital.

Oregon’s 677th COVID-19 death is an 89-year-old man in Multnomah County who tested positive on Sep. 21 and died on Oct. 1 at his residence.

Oregon’s 678th COVID-19 death is an 89-year-old man in Marion County who tested positive on Sept. 25 and died on Oct. 4 at Samaritan Albany General Hospital.

Oregon’s 679th COVID-19 death is an 89-year-old woman in Multnomah County who tested positive on Sept. 8 and died on Oct. 10 at her residence.

Oregon’s 680th COVID-19 death is a 96-year-old man in Linn County who tested positive on Sept. 19 and died on Oct. 21 at his residence.

Oregon’s 681st COVID-19 death is a 57-year-old man in Multnomah County who tested positive on Oct. 20 and died on Oct. 24 at his residence.

Oregon’s 682nd COVID-19 death is a 92-year-old woman in Curry County who tested positive on Oct. 5 and died on Oct. 25 at Curry General Hospital.

Oregon’s 683rd COVID-19 death is a 75-year-old man in Lane County who tested positive on Oct. 8 and died on Oct. 29 at Peace Health Sacred Heart Riverbend Medical Center.

Oregon’s 684th COVID-19 death is a 73-year-old woman in Columbia County who tested positive on Sept. 23 and died on Oct. 6 at her residence.

Oregon’s 685th COVID-19 death is an 81-year-old man in Multnomah County who tested positive on Sept. 25 and died on Oct. 19 at his residence.

Oregon’s 686th COVID-19 death is a 62-year-old man in Marion County who tested positive on Oct. 1 and died on Oct. 6 at Salem Hospital.

Oregon’s 687th COVID-19 death is an 80-year-old woman in Multnomah County who tested positive on Sept. 4 and died on Sept. 26 at her residence.

Oregon’s 688th COVID-19 death is a 66-year-old woman in Crook County who tested positive on Oct. 22 and died on Oct. 30 at St. Charles Medical Center Bend.

Oregon’s 689th COVID-19 death is a 78-year-old man in Multnomah County who tested positive on Oct. 28 and died on Oct. 29.

Additional Graphs:

ghij

Want to See Past Newsletters?

If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there.  Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.

AND FINALLY,

Here again are some resources that you will find useful:

If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource.  We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction. 

Best,

dembrow signature

Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23


email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-986-1723
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301