October 15th COVID-19 and Wildfires Update

Michael Dembrow

October 15, 2020

I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends in these difficult times.

Today’s newsletter shows another big day in reported COVID tests, lower but still relatively high numbers of reported cases, and again a relatively low positivity rate overall, which is a good sign.  The number of new hospitalizations has also gone down today.

Today’s newsletter also reports on the COVID Weekly Report, which shows the impact of the record-setting number of cases last week.  Given what we’ve been seeing over the last few days, next week’s report may be more positive.

On the wildfire front, the Department of Forestry has called an end to this year’s wildfire season in two regions of the state.

Please let me know if you have any questions about anything in this newsletter.

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TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE

  • Positive Cases: OHA reports that 343 additional Oregonians have tested positive for COVID. The cumulative total since the beginning of the pandemic is 36,585.
  • Total Tests: The number of reported tests has increased by 7,702. The cumulative total is now 767,336.
  • Ratio: The percentage of positive test results is 4.5%.  The national ratio today is 6.3%.
  • Deaths: I’m sorry to report 3 additional deaths due to the coronavirus today. The total number of COVID deaths in Oregon is now 611.
  • Hospitalized: OHA reports 20 new COVID hospitalizations. The cumulative number of those who have been hospitalized with COVID since the beginning of the pandemic is now 2,868.
  • Presumptive Cases: OHA is including “presumptive COVID-19 cases” in its daily reports, consistent with recently amended guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A presumptive case is someone who does not yet have a positive PCR test but is showing symptoms and has had close contact with a confirmed case. If they later test positive by PCR, those will be recategorized as confirmed cases.  OHA reports 31 new cases presumed positive for COVID-19.  The cumulative number of presumed positives is 1,940.
  • Other Hospital Information:
    • Patients Currently with COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 199 (3 fewer than yesterday). Of those, 144 have already received a positive test back.
    • Available ICU Beds: 163 (1 fewer than yesterday)
    • Other Available Beds: 609 (40 more than yesterday).
    • ICU Patients w COVID-19 Symptoms: 49 (1 fewer than yesterday).
    • COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 16 (4 fewer than yesterday).
    • Available Ventilators: 794 (7 more than yesterday).
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  • Today’s National Numbers:
  • Additional Brief Updates:
    • As mentioned in earlier newsletters, FEMA has been opening on-site offices in fire-affected areas around the state (so far in Medford, Stayton, and Eugene). We’ve just learned that the latest has been opened in Lincoln City to assist survivors of the Lincoln County fires.  You can find details in this OEM/FEMA press release in English and in Spanish.
    • You might have noticed in yesterday’s county case counts a large number of cases in Linn County. We now know why. An outbreak of 21 cases of COVID-19 has been reported at Georgia Pacific in Linn County. The case count includes all persons linked to the outbreak, which may include household members and other close contacts to an employee.
    • The Oregon State Hospital has just reported its first patient to test positive for COVID-19. There have been a number of OSH staff who have tested positive—26 since the beginning of the pandemic—but fortunately up to now they’ve been able to keep it away from the patients.  This one patient was in contact with three staff members who ultimately tested positive for the disease and were most likely the points of contact.  All patients and staff who lived or worked on that unit will be tested for COVID-19 and not be allowed to go anywhere else in the hospital.

Latest OHA Weekly COVID Report Released

OHA released its WEEKLY COVID REPORT yesterday. It is again a very comprehensive snapshot of different aspects of transmission of the disease in Oregon over the past week or so.  It confirms what we’ve been seeing in our daily reports:  an ongoing increase of transmission in Oregon, with increases in new infections, accompanied by declining testing and increases in test positivity, hospitalizations, and declining deaths.  It continues to show ongoing disproportionality among racial and ethnic groups.

Here are some of OHA’s broad observations of where we are now, based on data from October 5-11:

  • We are now seeing even bigger increases in the number of new cases. Last week OHA recorded 2,418 new cases of COVID-19 infection—up 18% from last week’s Gtally of 2,055 and the highest weekly total reported in Oregon to date. 
  • The cumulative statewide infection rate is now 884 cases per 100,000 Oregonians.
  • Good news: We’re starting to see an increase in testing. The number of Oregonians newly tested rose 26% last week, to 28,490. This is still below where we should be, but with the increasing tests and supplies coming from the federal government, we should be seeing further improvements next week.
  • The percentage of positive test results again rose slightly to 6.4% for the week (up from 6.3%).
  • Last week the number of reported deaths rose slightly from 25 to 27.
  • The cumulative death rate since the beginning of the pandemic is now 14.1 deaths per 100,000 Oregonians, with a cumulative total of 599 on October 11. This again constitutes a mortality rate of 1.6% of reported cases.
  • The number of new COVID hospitalizations went back up last week, 147 vs. the previous week’s 119. I regret to say that this is the highest weekly hospitalization figure since mid-July.
  • The age group with the highest incidence of reported infection continues to be 20–29-year-olds, with rates decreasing in subsequent decades of life.

The report again provides information about signs, symptoms, and risk factors; racial/ethnic/age/gender demographics; recovery; outbreaks in long-term care; workplace outbreaks; outbreaks in childcare centers and schools; hospital rates; and the breakdown of cases by zip code.

Racial/Ethnic

The report again demonstrates significant disparities among racial groups.  You can see this in the charts below, with data that I’ve taken from the September 27 report, the October 4 report, and from this report.  It allows you to see at a glance the proportion of case counts within different racial groups and ethnic groups (technically, “Hispanic” is not a race and is counted as an ethnic group, with numbers from a separate chart).  They remain relatively stable. 

To help you understand the racial/ethnic data reported in the weekly report, I’ve also created a new chart that shows the hospitalization and death rates per 100K population, along with the infection rates per-100K population for each racial/ethnic group.

You’ll see again how much higher the case rates per 100,000 are for most racial/ethnic groups compared to White Oregonians. Black Oregonians are 3.5 times more likely to contract the disease than are White Oregonians, Native Americans 4.2 times more likely, Latinx Oregonians are 5.8 times more likely, and Pacific Islanders are now 8.4 times more likely. The differences, while still enormous, have continued to go down slightly from week to week.

You’ll also again see that hospitalization rates among those who have contracted the disease are somewhat lower for Blacks and Native Americans, quite a bit lower for Latinx, and quite a bit higher for Pacific Islanders than for the population of White Oregonians.  Among those who have contracted the disease, the percentage who ultimately die of it is much higher for Whites than for people of color.

However, you’ll also see in the final chart that when examined as a proportion of their populations in Oregon, the hospitalization and death rates for Blacks, Native Americans, Pacific Islander, and especially for Latinx Oregonians are disproportionally high.  It helps us to see why it’s so important that special outreach needs to be made to members of these racial/ethnic groups.

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The weekly report includes graphs showing how Public Health agencies are doing in contact tracing for different racial and ethnic groups.  For the most part, the rate of follow-up interviews with Oregonians of color appears to be comparable to the rate with White Oregonians (actually, higher among Latinx Oregonians).  Those attempts are less successful for Black Oregonians.

Outbreaks at Long-Term Care Facilities

The report lists outbreaks at long-term care facilities with more than five residents that have three or more confirmed cases or at least one COVID death.  Fortunately, we are seeing a continued reduction in active outbreaks in these facilities.

This week’s report lists outbreaks in 40 (up from 36) long-term care facilities that are still considered active.  They are responsible for 709 cases (up from 679) and 54 deaths (44). 

In addition, there are 75 outbreaks considered resolved (up from 60). They are responsible for 1079 cases (up from 892) and 109 deaths (up from 94).  To be listed as a “resolved” outbreak, a facility must not have had a new case in at least 28 days.

The total for the 86 active and resolved facilities on the lists this week is thus 1,788 cases (up from 1,515) and 187 deaths (up from 133).

Facilities that have been in “resolved” status for 56 days are being dropped from that list.  So, the totals are obviously not the totals since the beginning of the pandemic. OHA has promised to include the cumulative totals in future weekly reports, but this week’s report does not yet include those.

In addition to the listed facilities, there are again 53 congregate settings with five or fewer beds that have also had three or more confirmed cases or one or more deaths, so the above totals should actually be somewhat higher.

To date, there has still been only one death of a staff member reported.

Workplace Outbreaks

Similarly, there are separate listings for workplace outbreaks that are “active” and “resolved,” but without deaths identified by workplace.  Case counts include all persons linked to the outbreak, which may include household members and other close contacts. To protect privacy, OHA is only reporting workplace outbreaks with five or more cases (workers and family members) and only for workplaces with at least 30 workers.  They are listed in descending order of number of cases.

You’ll find 73 workplaces (down from 74 last week) listed as “Active” this week, totaling 2,645 (up from 2,483).

A facility goes onto the resolved list once it has not had a new case in 28 days.

45 workplaces (down from 46 last week) are now listed as “Resolved,” totaling 696 cases.

As is the case with the long-term care lists, once a workplace outbreak has been in resolved status for 56 days, it is dropped from the list.

OHA is again reporting 24 deaths as the result of workplace outbreaks.

Three out of the top four workplace outbreaks in Oregon today are again in Eastern Oregon state prisons. There are currently five prisons on the active list. They make up 42% of all the active workplace outbreak cases.

Childcare Outbreaks

OHA has changed the way that it reports outbreaks in childcare facilities.  Previously, the Weekly Report only included names and case counts for childcare facilities that enroll 30 or more children and have five or more cases.  They are now reporting all outbreaks that include two or more cases in facilities with more than 16 children.  As a result, we again have 9 facilities listed as active (one was added, one was moved to “Resolved” status. They comprise a total of 50 cases (down from 63). 

These case counts may include children, staff, and household members.

Four centers are now on the Resolved list, comprising 33 cases.

In addition to the listed centers, there are currently 13 child care facilities that serve 16 or fewer students that have outbreaks of 2 or more cases.

Cases in K-12 Schools

OHA is now reporting all COVID-19 cases in schools that offer in-person instruction, distinguishing between students and staff.  The report lists schools with at least 30 students that have at least one reported COVID case.

The new reporting protocol applies to all public and private schools and programs.

We’re unfortunately seeing ongoing increases in the number of cases in schools that have resumed in-person instruction.

This week’s report shows 17 (up from 9) cases of students and 35 (up from 23) cases of staff members at a total of 25 (up from 14 last week) public and private schools (including elementary, middle, and high schools) around the state.

Infections by Zip Code

You’ll see that the zip code list again reveals the various hot spots around the state, presented in terms of cases per 100K residents since the beginning of the pandemic. Since these are cumulative totals, change in zip code rankings happens slowly over time.

The top five are exactly the same (from Umatilla/Morrow, Jefferson, and Malheur Counties) as they’ve been for the last month:

  1. 97818 (Boardman in Morrow County)
  2. 97761 (Warm Springs in Jefferson County)
  3. 97914 (Ontario in Malheur County)
  4. 97838 (Hermiston in Umatilla and Morrow Counties)
  5. 97882 (Umatilla in Umatilla County)

97913 (Nyssa in Malheur County has displaced 97875 (Stanfield in Umatilla County) for the on-deck spot at #6.

Here is a zip code locator for you to use as you look at the zip code numbers.

The Oregonian has created an interactive map of cases by zip code.  It allows you to see COVID cases both cumulatively and with changes over the last week.

More on Halloween

Yesterday, OHA held a Facebook Live with public health physicians, Dr. Shimi Sharief and Dr. Claire Poche, to answer questions and offer tips on how to celebrate Halloween safely.

If you’d like to view the video, you can do so here:

English link

Spanish link

Here are timestamps of the questions: 

Questions:

3:44 – Every year our store sets out bowls of individually wrapped candies for our customers to help themselves to. Is this something we can still do?

4:25 – Can I just layer a face covering under my Halloween mask?

5:00 – If the goal is to stop the spread of droplets, wouldn’t a plastic Halloween mask work just fine?

6:08 – How is getting handed candy while trick or treating different than getting handed takeout at a drive-thru or restaurant?

8:04 – What about a social distancing candy dispenser or chute?

8:33 – Why are face shields considered safe if Halloween masks are not?

9:47 – Wouldn’t it be safe to individually wrap candy for trick or treaters?

10:10 – Why wouldn’t a Halloween mask protect us if it’s made of the same fabric as a face covering?

10:40 – Is it possible to make trunk or treating safe in some way?

13:25 – What is safe for trunk or treat events? Is trunk or treating just as risky as trick or treating?

15:05 – So is trick or treating not happening due to safety?

16:26 – Have you considered creating a low to high risk document for families to follow?

16:58 – Can we do an outdoor costume parade?

18:18 – We’re hearing that some of the alternative events folks are planning could be less safe than trick or treating. Can we tell folks how to safely trick or treat outdoors?

The low to high risk activity graphic discussed during the Facebook live can be found here: https://bit.ly/3dtiAvK

Thursday Wildfire Update

ODF reported today that it is declaring an end to the fire season in Northeast Oregon, effective on Saturday.  That includes more than two million acres of private, state, county, municipal, and tribal lands that are ODF-protected.  It includes land in parts of the following counties:  Union, Baker, Umatilla, Wallowa and small portions of Grant, Morrow and Malheur counties. The Northeast district responded to a total of 66 fires on ODF protected lands in this region this year.  There were 40 lightning fires for a total of 127.5 acres.  Another 26 fires were human caused and burned a total of 126 acres.  With the end of the fire season, landowners can now burn yard debris on their property, though they may still need a fire permit for larger fires in certain areas.

The Central Oregon district’s Prineville and The Dalles Units is also seeing an end to its fire season on October 17.  However, the John Day Unit, which includes parts of Grant, Morrow, Wheeler, Gilliam, Malhuer, and Umatilla counties will need to wait for more precipitation to come.

Below again are two tables that reveal the progress made in containment of the six remaining major fires over the last 24 hours.  Aside from a small increase in containment of the Slater Fire in Southwest Oregon, there hasn’t been any change to the containment levels.

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Again, for maps and up-to-the-minute details on the individual fires, I’d direct you to OEM’s State of Oregon Fires and Hotspots Dashboard.

You can find an up-to-the-moment status report on road closures from ODOT’s Trip Check tool.

Wildfire Impact/Recovery Updates

Oregon Emergency Management does not provide updates on Thursdays, so the data from yesterday remain the same.  Here again are the latest highlights of the recovery effort:

  • The number of fatalities (9) and missing persons (1) remains the same.
  • The number of residences destroyed has gone up by 11 to 4,023. More than 1,400 structures other than residences have also been destroyed.
  • The number of Oregonians who have registered with FEMA for individual assistance has soared to 16,356. This is sad in terms of the number of families needing assistance, but gratifying to know that the word is getting out and people are taking the first steps to get the assistance they deserve and need. FEMA has already approved for $18.1 million in assistance grants.
  • Still, if you know of anyone who has NOT yet registered, please direct them to the following:

Wildfire Informational Resources

Where Are Today’s New Cases?

If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive” cases reported today, the overall number of new cases is 374. Nearly half of today’s new COVID cases are in the Portland Tri-County region.  Here is the breakdown by county for today:

Benton (15)

Clackamas (21)

Clatsop (2)

Columbia (3)

Coos (1)

Crook (2)

Deschutes (7)

Douglas (5)

Jackson (17)

Josephine (5)

Klamath (1)

Lane (33)

Lincoln (5)

Linn (12)

Malheur (14)

Marion (34)

Morrow (1)

Multnomah (110)

Polk (12)

Tillamook (1)

Umatilla (17)

Union (2)

Wallowa (1)

Wasco (1)

Washington (46)

Yamhill (6)

And the Deaths

Oregon’s 609th COVID-19 death is a 91-year-old woman in Lane County who tested positive on Sept. 29 and died on Oct. 10, in her residence.

Oregon’s 610th COVID-19 death is an 82-year-old woman in Marion County who tested positive on Oct. 7 and died on Oct. 10. Place of death is being confirmed.

Oregon’s 611th COVID-19 death is a 60-year-old man in Marion County who tested positive on Aug. 8 and died on Oct. 13, at Legacy Emanuel Medical Center.

Additional Graphs:

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Want to See Past Newsletters?

If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there.  Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.

AND FINALLY,

Here again are some resources that you will find useful:

If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource.  We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction. 

Best,

dembrow signature

Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23


email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-986-1723
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301