October 4th COVID-19 and Wildfire Update

Michael Dembrow

October 4, 2020

I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends in these difficult times.

Since it’s Sunday, you’ll find only partial reporting on some of the metrics tracking coronavirus in Oregon.  Instead of giving us the positive test results alone, over the weekend OHA combines those numbers with the relatively small number of those who are presumed to be positive based on their symptoms and close proximity to someone who has tested positive, but whose test results have not yet come back.  But it still gives us a good idea of what’s going on. 

We see a reduction in new COVID cases today, but that may be due once again to a reduction in tests. Based on today’s numbers, the state’s positivity rate for the disease has jumped up again. 

We also don’t get hospitalization numbers over the weekend, so we won’t know what the rate of increase is till Monday.  Deaths are reported, however.  Fortunately, OHA has reported the death of only one Oregonian from COVID.

As I’ve been doing on Sundays, I’m  also including updated information about how COVID is affecting people of different ages.  We see the same trends as in past weeks: COVID cases are most prevalent in younger people.  When it is passed on to older people, however, it becomes much more dangerous (though we continue to see a slight increase in hospitalizations and deaths among those under the age of 60).

Our firefighters are continuing to make progress in strengthening all the firelines and increasing containment of the fires.  You’ll also find information below from a briefing that was held for legislators on Friday regarding state, local, and FEMA efforts to help Oregonians affected by the fires start to rebuild their lives.

Please let me know if you have any questions about anything in this newsletter.

TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE

  • Positive Cases: OHA reports that 260 additional Oregonians have tested positive or are presumed positive (see below for definition) for COVID. OHA does not report positive test results alone over the weekend. I’ll be able to readjust the numbers on Monday to remove the presumed positives. The cumulative total for those testing positive and presumed positive is 34,770.
  • Total Tests: The number of reported tests has increased by 3,533. Today’s increase in total results also includes presumed positives in the total results, so may be a little high. I’ll readjust the numbers on Monday. The cumulative total is now 705,436.
  • Ratio: The percentage of positive test results in Oregon is 7.4%.  The national ratio today is 4.1%.
  • Deaths: I’m sorry to report 1 additional death due to the coronavirus today. You can read more about the Oregonian we lost further down in the newsletter. The total number of COVID deaths in Oregon is now 572.
  • Hospitalized: OHA does not report on hospitalizations over the weekend. The cumulative number of those who have been hospitalized with COVID thus remains at 2,618.
  • Presumptive Cases: OHA is including “presumptive COVID-19 cases” in its daily reports, consistent with recently amended guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A presumptive case is someone who does not yet have a positive PCR test but is showing symptoms and has had close contact with a confirmed case. If they later test positive by PCR, those will be recategorized as confirmed cases.
  • Other Hospital Information: OHA DOES NOT REPORT hospitalization information over the weekend, so the numbers below are the same as Friday’s.
    • Patients Currently w COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 176 (3 fewer than yesterday). Of those, 130 have already received a positive test back.
    • Available ICU Beds: 172 (6 fewer than yesterday)
    • Other Available Beds: 665 (4 more than yesterday).
    • ICU Patients w COVID-19 Symptoms: 48 (1 fewer than yesterday).
    • COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 17 (1 fewer than yesterday).
    • Available Ventilators: 810 (9 fewer than yesterday).
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  • Today’s National Numbers:
  • Additional Brief Updates:
    • The Wildfire Economic Recovery Council, which the Governor created to help fire-stricken communities get back on their feet, is set to have its first meeting tomorrow, October 5, at 1 p.m. It’s being chaired by Oregon Treasurer Tobias Read and Oregon Commissioner of Labor and Industries Val Hoyle. The Council will be hearing from Office of Emergency Management Andrew Phelps, along with someone from the Western Fire Chief’s Association to speak about the experience in California.  Here’s the agenda and details for the meeting.
    • The Oregonian published a troubling article today by Jeff Manning about a Hermiston hospital that is refusing to inform employees about possible exposure to COVID.
    • The Oregonian’s Mike Rogoway writes about pandemic job losses by region, showing the way that impacts have been unusually less severe in Eastern and Southern Oregon—at least for now.

Looking at Age Metrics

Here again are this week’s statewide case, hospitalization, and death metrics by age.  Here is updated information as of October 2.  The percentages for each category have again not really moved at all. You’ll see again that younger people have come to dominate the category of new cases: 70% of all cases so far have been in Oregonians below younger than 50.

However, effects of the disease become much more severe when it is transmitted to older people. Seventy percent of COVID hospitalizations are among those OVER the age of 50.  Deaths remain dominated by those above the age of 70 (nearly three-fourths of all deaths), though we continue to see many losses among people in their 50s and younger.

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Sunday Wildfire Update

Favorable weather conditions have allowed firefighters to continue to strengthen containment lines and prevent any substantial increases in acres burned.  Increasing winds today were causes for concern, but we won’t learn about the effects of them till tomorrow.  Yesterday did see some flareups within the contained perimeter of the Beachie Creek Fire, which led to the successful use of aircraft dumping water on the blazes and containing them.

Below again are two tables that reveal the progress made over the last 24 hours.

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Again, for maps and up-to-the-minute details on the individual fires, I’d direct you to OEM’s State of Oregon Fires and Hotspots Dashboard.

A Message to Stay Out of Closed Areas

The Redmond-based incident command center for the Lionshead Fire (mainly in or near the Cascades) has put out the following message directed at people who are entering areas that are still in evacuation zones or otherwise closed to the public:  STAY OUT!

In recent days, firefighters have encountered numerous civilians within the closure area and even within the fire footprint. Unauthorized access puts motorists at risk of accidents or injuries from falling trees or fire burning across a roadway, in addition to accidents involving engines, equipment or other fire-related vehicles.

If a civilian is injured or a motorist is stranded, help may not be readily available, or slower in responding. While all firefighters have some level of first aid training, they may not come across the scene in a timely fashion, or be able to bring in an ambulance. This also takes firefighters away from their work fighting the fire and ensuring it does not escape containment lines.

The majority of encounters have been along Hwy. 46 between Detroit and Breitenbush Hot Springs, where numerous trees have fallen across the roadway and others are at risk of falling, and on Forest Roads 2231, 2233 and 4693, where the fire is also still active.

Outside the fire perimeter, but within the closure area, there are also risks, including the potential for vehicular accidents and the potential for fire to cross containment lines. Two good examples of this are a spot fire discovered outside the fire line near the finger to the north and another to the north of the P-515 Fire footprint. Firefighters must be able to respond to these developments without delay, and, in a worst-case scenario, motorists could find themselves trapped within an active fire.

Violators of a closure order may be ticketed and subject to a fine of up to $5,000, imprisonment of not more than 6 months, or both. Complete closure orders and maps of closed areas on federal lands associated with the Lionshead Fire can be found at https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/closures/7049/

You can find an up-to-the-moment status report on road closures from ODOT’s Trip Check tool.

Additional Wildfire-Response Statistics and Information:

The Office of Emergency Management is no longer updating its statistics over the weekend, so what you see below is the same as the information that was in Friday’s newsletter.

Legislators did receive a briefing from OEM Friday afternoon, giving us a broad overview of the effort to remove debris from affected areas, along with FEMA and other resources to help survivors rebuild their lives.  Here are the PowerPoint Slides from the briefing.

  • I’m happy to report that the number of confirmed fatalities remains at 9, and the number of those confirmed missing remains at 3. Every loss is a tragedy of course, but these are remarkably low numbers given the devastation we experienced. We owe a great deal to many people for this.
  • The number of residences (specifically, manufactured homes) destroyed by wildfire has been reduced as a result of further investigation.
    • Residences destroyed: 2,900 (had been 3,124)
      • Single Family: 1,069
      • Multi-Family (Apartment): 197
      • Manufactured Homes: 1634 (down from 1,858)
    • Other structures destroyed: 1,403
  • More than 200 additional Oregonians have successfully registered with FEMA for individual assistance over the last 24 hours, bringing the total number to 6,835 Oregonians who have already had their applications approved. $14.5 million dollars has already been approved for distribution.
  • Assistance provided by FEMA for homeowners can include grants for repairs to make their primary home habitable. Rental assistance is available to pay for temporary housing for homeowners and renters.
  • Assistance can also help with other immediate disaster-related needs like replacing essential household items, medical and dental expenses, diapers, etc. So far, more than $3 million has already gone out to meet these immediate needs.
  • In addition to FEMA grants, the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) offers low-cost disaster loans for homeowners, renters, and businesses. This includes Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDLs) for small businesses. Anyone seeking an SBA disaster loan need to register with FEMA first. More than $2.2 million has already been approved for SBA loans and grants to 27 homeowners.
  • Again, if you know of anyone who has NOT yet registered, please direct them to the following:

The Office of Emergency Management put out a reminder to those returning to their homes to pay special attention to disposal of hazardous waste, which requires special handling. Specifically,

  • Fuel, propane tanks and petroleum products
  • Car batteries, engine oil and antifreeze
  • Solvents, aerosols and paint
  • Fertilizers and pesticides
  • Bleach and disinfectants
  • Ammunition                  

Wildfire Informational Resources

Here again are some other resources that I would recommend:

Additional News Items on the Wildfires

Where Are Today’s New Cases?

If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive” cases reported today, the overall number of new cases is 260.  We see that the numbers for Lane County are fortunately somewhat lower today.  Here is the breakdown by county for today:

Benton (1)

Clackamas (16)

Columbia (3)

Coos (3)

Deschutes (8)

Douglas (4)

Jackson (9)

Jefferson (4)

Klamath (2)

Lane (29)

Lincoln (1)

Linn (6)

Malheur (14)

Marion (37)

Morrow (2)

Multnomah (61)

Polk (4)

Umatilla (11)

Washington (35)

Yamhill (10)

And the Death

Oregon’s 572nd COVID-19 death is an 80-year-old man in Marion County who tested positive on Sept. 24 and died on Oct. 2 at Salem Hospital.

Additional Graphs:

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Want to See Past Newsletters?

If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there.  Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.

AND FINALLY,

Here again are some resources that you will find useful:

If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource.  We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction. 

Best,

dembrow signature

Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23


email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-986-1723
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301