October 3rd COVID-19 Update

Oregon State Legislature sent this bulletin at 10/03/2020 10:14 PM PDT
Michael Dembrow

October 3, 2020

I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends in these difficult times.

Today the news from the fires is good, with good progress made in containing three of the six large fires remaining on the priority list.  The big concern for now is the danger of damaged trees falling with the higher winds that are predicted for tomorrow.

Since it’s Saturday, you’ll find only partial reporting on some of the metrics tracking coronavirus in Oregon.  Instead of giving us the positive test results alone, over the weekend OHA combines those numbers with the relatively small number of those who are presumed to be positive based on their symptoms and close proximity to someone who has tested positive, but whose test results have not yet come back.  But it still gives us a good idea of what’s going on. 

What we see for today is an increase in case counts and a slight increase in our state’s positivity rate. 

We also don’t get hospitalization numbers over the weekend, so we won’t know what the rate of increase is till Monday.  Deaths are reported, however, and, sadly, OHA has reported the death of eight additional Oregonians from COVID.

As I’ve been doing on Saturdays for a while, I’m also taking the opportunity to look back at what’s going on in our individual counties on a week-by-week basis over the last month.  It allows us to see a bit of good news: our overall COVID positivity rate is starting to move back down when analyzed on a week-over-week basis,

Please let me know if you have any questions about anything in this newsletter.

TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE

  • Positive Cases: OHA reports that 360 additional Oregonians have tested positive or are presumed positive (see below for definition) for COVID. OHA does not report positive test results alone over the weekend. I’ll be able to readjust the numbers on Monday to remove the presumed positives. The cumulative total for those testing positive and presumed positive is 34,511.
  • Total Tests: The number of reported tests has increased by 6,287. Today’s increase in total results also includes presumed positives in the total results, so may be a little high. I’ll readjust the numbers on Monday. The cumulative total is now 701,903.
  • Ratio: The percentage of positive test results in Oregon is 5.7%.  The national ratio today is 5.2%.
  • Deaths: I’m sorry to report 8 additional deaths due to the coronavirus today. You can read more about the Oregonians we lost further down in the newsletter. The total number of COVID deaths in Oregon is now 571.
  • Hospitalized: OHA does not report on hospitalizations over the weekend. The cumulative number of those who have been hospitalized with COVID thus remains at 2,618.
  • Presumptive Cases: OHA is including “presumptive COVID-19 cases” in its daily reports, consistent with recently amended guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A presumptive case is someone who does not yet have a positive PCR test but is showing symptoms and has had close contact with a confirmed case. If they later test positive by PCR, those will be recategorized as confirmed cases.
  • Other Hospital Information: OHA DOES NOT REPORT hospitalization information over the weekend, so the numbers below are the same as Friday’s.
    • Patients Currently w COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 176 (3 fewer than yesterday). Of those, 130 have already received a positive test back.
    • Available ICU Beds: 172 (6 fewer than yesterday)
    • Other Available Beds: 665 (4 more than yesterday).
    • ICU Patients w COVID-19 Symptoms: 48 (1 fewer than yesterday).
    • COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 17 (1 fewer than yesterday).
    • Available Ventilators: 810 (9 fewer than yesterday).
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  • Today’s National Numbers:
  • Additional Brief Updates:
    • Now that there has been so much progress made on the large fires in Oregon, the State Fire Marshal feels comfortable deploying some firefighters down to California, where the situation remains desperate in many areas. You’ll find the details in this release.

What’s Going On In the Counties?

Each Saturday I’m tracking how individual counties are doing, especially now that we’re seeing big increases in cases around the state. The key metrics that OHA is watching are the number of positive test results (per 100K residents) and  the percentage of positive test results among all tests administered; the latter will be the more important way for us to see if the infection rate is increasing as a result of reopening and increased testing. (They also are looking at hospital capacity and changes in hospitalization rates, but I don’t have that information by county.)

But first, I want to reproduce the current INTERACTIVE COUNTY DASHBOARD that the OHA has on its website.  It shows case counts and total testing by county since the pandemic, scaled to cases per 100,000, so that we can see how the infection is penetrating the various counties, irrespective of their population size.  This is what we see as of October 2: 

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This is a useful view because it allows us to see the infection rate within each county, irrespective of their total populations.  Remember, though, that these are CUMULATIVE cases since the beginning of the pandemic.  If you look at the rankings, you can see the lingering effects of outbreaks at workplaces and other congregate settings that occurred a month or more ago.  It also means that more recent outbreaks may not lead to big changes in the above rankings. In fact, there are no changes in the top 15, and only a handful of moves up or down by one or two spots for the remainder.

While the cumulative infection rate is an important metric to look at, I believe an even more important metric is the rate of test results coming in positive.  The more you test, the lower that number should be, as you’re not just testing people with clear symptoms of COVID. Anything over 10% is cause for real concern.  Our school reopening target is 5%.  

Here’s a table I’ve created that shows county rankings by the most recent week’s positivity rate.  When you compare it to the previous table. you get a better sense of what’s happening in the individual counties right now.  For example, you’ll see that last week’s #1 county, Clatsop County (pushed to the top spot by the outbreak at a seafood processing plant), has moved back down to #14 this week.  Lane County, where we’ve seen a big increase in cases recently, is now in the top 10.  If today’s numbers were included in the count (today begins the new week for these calculations), Lane County would be even higher on the list.

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Looking at the tables below, we can start to see the beginning of declines in rate and positivity rate for the state as a whole, with ongoing problems in some counties.

The percentage increases in positive test results may seem inordinately high when working off of a small base or when overall testing goes up rapidly in a county. Again, the more accurate way to gauge the penetration of the disease in a given county is by the percentage of positive test results each week.  However, it’s important that we have broad testing to be able to catch both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases.

In order to make the current trends in positive percentages more obvious, I’m again showing you the week-over-week percentages, along with the overall percentage of positive cases for each county since the beginning of the pandemic. 

As you’ll see, the proportion of positive test results for the state as a whole has gone down for the second week in a row.  That’s good news for now.

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If you’re interested in seeing an even more granular picture of what’s happening on the ground, cumulatively and over the last week, The Oregonian has created an interactive map of cases by zip code.

Saturday Wildfire Update

Favorable weather conditions have allowed firefighters to continue to strengthen containment lines and prevent any substantial increases in acres burned. Firefighters have made particularly good progress on the Lionshead, Riverside, and Archie Creek fires.

Below again are two tables that reveal the progress made over the last 24 hours.

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Again, for maps and up-to-the-minute details on the individual fires, I’d direct you to OEM’s State of Oregon Fires and Hotspots Dashboard.

You can find an up-to-the-moment status report on road closures from ODOT’s Trip Check tool.

The Office of Emergency Management is no longer updating its statistics over the weekend, so what you see below is the same as the information that was in Friday’s newsletter.

  • I’m happy to report that the number of confirmed fatalities remains at 9, and the number of those confirmed missing remains at 3. Every loss is a tragedy of course, but these are remarkably low numbers given the devastation we experienced. We owe a great deal to many people for this.
  • The number of residences (specifically, manufactured homes) destroyed by wildfire has been reduced as a result of further investigation.
    • Residences destroyed: 2,900 (had been 3,124)
      • Single Family: 1,069
      • Multi-Family (Apartment): 197
      • Manufactured Homes: 1,634 (down from 1,858)
    • Other structures destroyed: 1,403
  • More than 200 additional Oregonians have successfully registered with FEMA for individual assistance over the last 24 hours, bringing the total number to 6,835 Oregonians who have already had their applications approved. $14.5 million dollars has already been approved for distribution.
  • Assistance provided by FEMA for homeowners can include grants for repairs to make their primary home habitable. Rental assistance is available to pay for temporary housing for homeowners and renters.
  • Assistance can also help with other immediate disaster-related needs like replacing essential household items, medical and dental expenses, diapers, etc. So far, more than $3 million has already gone out to meet these immediate needs.
  • In addition to FEMA grants, the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) offers low-cost disaster loans for homeowners, renters, and businesses. This includes Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDLs) for small businesses. Anyone seeking an SBA disaster loan need to register with FEMA first. More than $2.2 million has already been approved for SBA loans and grants to 27 homeowners.
  • Again, if you know of anyone who has NOT yet registered, please direct them to the following:

The Office of Emergency Management put out a reminder to those returning to their homes to pay special attention to disposal of hazardous waste, which requires special handling. Specifically,

  • Fuel, propane tanks and petroleum products
  • Car batteries, engine oil and antifreeze
  • Solvents, aerosols and paint
  • Fertilizers and pesticides
  • Bleach and disinfectants
  • Ammunition

Wildfire Informational Resources

Here again are some other resources that I would recommend:

Where Are Today’s New Cases?

If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive” cases reported today, the overall number of new cases is 360. More than 2/3 of the new cases are from outside the Portland Tri-County area, with Lane County again with the most cases today.  Here is the breakdown by county for today:

Baker (1)

Benton (7)

Clackamas (20)

Clatsop (1)

Columbia (7)

Coos (6)

Deschutes (18)

Douglas (2)

Hood River (1)

Jackson (17)

Jefferson (3)

Josephine (3)

Klamath (5)

Lane (81)

Lincoln (2)

Linn (9)

Malheur (5)

Marion (39)

Morrow (3)

Multnomah (58)

Polk (6)

Tillamook (1)

Umatilla (21)

Union (1)

Wasco (2)

Washington (36)

Yamhill (5)

And the Deaths

Oregon’s 564th COVID-19 death is a 79-year-old man in Umatilla County who tested positive on Sept. 30 and died on Sept. 30 at Kadlec Regional Medical Center in Richland, Washington.

Oregon’s 565th COVID-19 death is a 78-year-old woman in Multnomah County who tested positive on May 26 and died on Aug. 28 in her residence.

Oregon’s 566th COVID-19 death is a 92-year-old woman in Multnomah County who tested positive on Sept. 8 and died on Sept. 11 in her residence.

Oregon’s 567th COVID-19 death is an 89-year-old man in Marion County who tested positive on Sept. 16 and died on Oct. 1 in his residence.

Oregon’s 568th COVID-19 death is an 85-year-old man in Lane County who tested positive on Sept. 23 and died on Sept. 27. Place of death is being confirmed.

Oregon’s 569th COVID-19 death is a 64-year-old woman in Multnomah County who tested positive on Sept. 2 and died on Sept. 18 in her residence.

Oregon’s 570th COVID-19 death is a 92-year-old woman in Multnomah County who tested positive on Aug. 24 and died on Sept. 11 in her residence.

Oregon’s 571st COVID-19 death is a 91-year-old woman in Washington County who tested positive on Aug. 10 and died on Sept. 5 in her residence.

Additional Graphs:

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Want to See Past Newsletters?

If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there.  Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.

AND FINALLY,

Here again are some resources that you will find useful:

If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource.  We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction. 

Best,

dembrow signature

Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23

email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-986-1723
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301