September 19th COVID-19 and Wildfire Update

Oregon State Legislature sent this bulletin at 09/19/2020 09:31 PM PDT
Michael Dembrow

September 19, 2020

I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends in these incredibly difficult times.

You’ll again see the latest news on firefighting and the weather forecast, all of which is positive today.  You’ll find links to resources for information on the fires and the response, as well as ways that those whose homes and lives have been damaged by the fires can find assistance and relief.

Since it’s Saturday, you’ll find only partial reporting on some of the metrics tracking coronavirus in Oregon.  Instead of giving us the positive test results alone, over the weekend OHA combines those numbers with the relatively small number of those who are presumed to be positive based on their symptoms and close proximity to someone who has tested positive, but whose test results have not yet come back.  But it still gives us a good idea of what’s going on. 

We also don’t get hospitalization numbers over the weekend, so we won’t know what the rate of increase is till Monday.  Deaths are reported, however, and today OHA reported the death of five additional Oregonians from COVID.

As I’ve been doing on Saturdays for a while, I’m also taking the opportunity to look back at what’s going on in our individual counties on a week-by-week basis over the last month.  It also allows us to see the way that our COVID positivity rate is starting to move back up, ending the gradual decline that we had been seeing for a month or more.

Though it’s not reflected in the county report, which is based on yesterday’s numbers, today we see a sudden jump in new cases in Benton County, home of Oregon State University.  We’re also seeing increases in Lane County.  These will be counties to keep an eye on as students return to their dorms and off-campus housing over the next couple of weeks.                                                

Again, please let me know if you have questions about any of the information in this newsletter.

TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE

  • Positive Cases: OHA reports that 266 additional Oregonians have tested positive or are presumed positive (see below for definition) for COVID. OHA does not report positive test results alone over the weekend. I’ll be able to readjust the numbers on Monday to remove the presumed positives. The cumulative total for those testing positive and presumed positive is 30,599.
  • Total Tests: The number of reported tests has increased by 5,951. Today’s increase in total results also includes presumed positives in the total results, so may be a little high. I’ll readjust the numbers on Monday. The cumulative total is now 633,910.
  • Ratio: The percentage of positive test results in Oregon is now 4.5%.  The national ratio today is 4.3%.
  • Deaths: I’m sorry to report 5 additional deaths due to the coronavirus today. You can read about those we lost further down in the newsletter. OHA also reported that it had double-counted an earlier death, so the cumulative total will go up by four.  The total number of COVID deaths in Oregon is now 525.
  • Hospitalized: OHA does not report on hospitalizations over the weekend. The cumulative number of those who have been hospitalized with COVID thus remains at 2,356.
  • Presumptive Cases: OHA is including “presumptive COVID-19 cases” in its daily reports, consistent with recently amended guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A presumptive case is someone who does not yet have a positive PCR test but is showing symptoms and has had close contact with a confirmed case. If they later test positive by PCR, those will be recategorized as confirmed cases.  
  • Other Hospital Information: OHA DOES NOT REPORT hospitalization information over the weekend, so the numbers below are the same as Friday’s.
    • Patients Currently w COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 145 (1 more than yesterday). Of those, 106 have already received a positive test back.
    • Available ICU Beds: 153 (3 more than yesterday)
    • Other Available Beds: 578 (43 fewer than yesterday).
    • ICU Patients w COVID-19 Symptoms: 32 (same as yesterday).
    • COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 11 (same as yesterday).
    • Available Ventilators: 780 (8 more than yesterday).
  • Dashboards
  • Today’s National Numbers:
  • Additional Brief Updates
    • Again a reminder that this coming week is the week of September “Legislative Days.” Committees will be meeting virtually throughout the week, and senators will need to go to the Capitol in person on Friday to vote on executive and commission appointments.  I’ll provide more detail in tomorrow’s newsletter, but for now you can find all the committee agendas here.

Saturday Wildfire Update:  Further Containment

There are no press conference today or briefings over the weekend, but I can share the latest information that we’ve received from the Office of Emergency Management:

  • Thanks to the rain and the ongoing commitment from those fighting the fires, ongoing progress continues to be made on all the fires. All of them are at least 10% contained, and many are much more than that.  The eastside fires that had been such a cause of concern are nearly 50% or more contained right now.
  • Continued rain and windy conditions continue to present landslide risks through the weekend, but so far we have fortunately not seen much of that.
  • I’m happy to report that the number of people confirmed missing has been reduced to 5. Confirmed fatalities remain at 9.  Each of these deaths is a tragic loss, but it’s wonderful to be able to report that the numbers remain much lower than had originally been feared. 
  • As of today, the number of homes destroyed by fire has reached 2,267. The number of other structures (barns, outbuildings, businesses) destroyed has reached 1,556.
  • The number of evacuees in congregate shelters has gone down to 441. Most of those are in their own RVs at the sites.
  • Those in hotels/motels are now at 2,380. Again, we owe a great deal to the Red Cross for making those arrangements and in many (most?) cases paying for the rooms until insurance and FEMA dollars arrive.
  • I’m pleased to report that as of today, 2,766 Oregonians have successfully registered with FEMA for individual assistance. That’s a very good rate already. 
  • Again, if you know of anyone who has NOT yet registered, please direct them to the following:

Again, for maps and up-to-the-minute details on the individual fires, I’d direct you to OEM’s State of Oregon Fires and Hotspots Dashboard.

Wildfire Informational Resources

Here again are some other resources that I would recommend:

More Wildfire News Items for You

From OHA and DEQ:  Returning to a Home or Business in the Fire Zone

OHA has provided the following set of recommendations and cautions for anyone able to return to their homes or businesses:

Wildfires can leave lingering smoke and ash in people’s homes and businesses. When you return to a home or business that has survived a wildfire, it’s important to take precautions to protect yourself and your family from inhaling smoke and ash. Smoke and ash can cause lung and heart problems.

Protect yourself and your family when cleaning up after a wildfire:

  • If you see ash or a layer of dust, keep children away until it has been cleaned.
  • Cloth face coverings, paper masks or bandanas are not effective at filtering out fine airborne ash, dust or asbestos fibers. N95 or KN95 respirators, if properly fit tested and worn, can offer protection from airborne particles. Oregon OSHA offers a video on how to correctly wear N95 respirators.
  • Do not use a leaf blower. Avoid activities that could stir up ash and make it airborne again, like using a leaf blower, dry sweeping or vacuuming without a high efficiency particulate (HEPA) filter.
  • Use rubber gloves when cleaning up ash. Wash any ash off your body or clothing right away.
  • To clean up ash outdoors: Gently dampen the ash – do not use a pressure washer, which will generate dust before it wets things down. Then use a vacuum with a HEPA filter if you have one. Do not use a leaf blower or regular wet/dry vacuum to clear ash because it will put more harmful particles into the air. If you don’t have a HEPA-equipped vacuum, gently sweep or scoop up the ash.
  • To clean up ash indoors: Use a damp cloth to clean surfaces indoors. Use a wet mop on floors. Do not use a vacuum to clean up ash unless it has a HEPA filter.
  • Turn on an air purifier or ventilation system with a HEPA if you have one. HEPA filters in your indoor heating, ventilation and cooling (HVAC) system and air purifiers can help remove particles from indoor air. Make sure your purifier is designed for the size of the space or room where you plan to use it.

Learn more from this page from the Department of Environmental Quality.

What’s Going On In the Counties?

Each Saturday I’m tracking how individual counties are doing, especially now that we’re seeing big increases in cases around the state. The key metrics that OHA is watching are the number of positive test results (per 100K residents) and  the percentage of positive test results among all tests administered; the latter will be the more important way for us to see if the infection rate is increasing as a result of reopening and increased testing. (They also are looking at hospital capacity and changes in hospitalization rates, but I don’t have that information by county.)

But first, I want to reproduce the current INTERACTIVE COUNTY DASHBOARDthat the OHA has on its website.  It shows case counts and total testing by county since the pandemic, scaled to cases per 100,000, so that we can see how the infection is penetrating the various counties, irrespective of their population size.  This is what we see as of September 18: 

a

This is a useful view because it allows us to see the infection rate within each county, irrespective of their total populations.  Remember, though, that these are CUMULATIVE cases since the beginning of the pandemic.  If you look at the rankings, you can see the lingering effects of outbreaks at workplaces and other congregate settings that occurred a month or more ago.  It also means that more recent outbreaks may not lead to big changes in the above rankings.  

While the cumulative infection rate is an important metric to look at, I believe an even more important metric is the rate of test results coming in positive.  The more you test, the lower that number should be, as you’re not just testing people with clear symptoms of COVID. Anything over 10% is cause for real concern.  Our school reopening target is 5%.  

Here’s a new table I’ve created that shows county rankings by the most recent week’s positivity rate.  When you compare it to the previous table. you get a better sense of what’s happening in the individual counties right now.  You’ll see that for last week at least, all but the top 11 are now under the 5% school-reopening standard for positivity.

b

 Looking at the tables below, we can start to see increases in case rate and positivity rate for the state as a whole, with ongoing problems in some counties.

The percentage increases in positive test results may seem inordinately high when working off of a small base or when overall testing goes up rapidly in a county. Again, the more accurate way to gauge the penetration of the disease in a given county is by the percentage of positive test results each week.  In order to make the current trends in positive percentages more obvious, I’m again showing you the week-over-week percentages, along with the overall percentage of positive cases for each county since the beginning of the pandemic. 

As you’ll see, the proportion of positive test results for the state as a whole has gone up for the first time in a month.

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Where Are Today’s New Cases?

If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive” cases reported today, the overall number of new cases is 266.  Two-thirds of today’s new cases are outside the Portland Tri-County area, with particularly high numbers in Benton County and Marion County.  Here is the breakdown by county for today:

Benton (27)

Clackamas (14)

Clatsop (3)

Columbia (2)

Curry (1)

Deschutes (16)

Douglas (6)

Jackson (13)

Jefferson (6)

Josephine (3)

Klamath (4)

Lane (11)

Lincoln (2)

Malheur (22)

Marion (40)

Morrow (1)

Multnomah (40)

Polk (8)

Umatilla (10)

Wasco (1)

Washington (23)

Yamhill (9)

And the Deaths

Note: OHA double counted a death on Sept. 4 that was originally recorded on July 24. The duplication occurred because of an incorrectly reported date of birth. Because of this error we are renumbering our reported deaths starting with 521 today.

Oregon’s 521st COVID-19 death is a 93-year-old woman in Lane County who tested positive on Aug. 26 and died on Sept. 17, in her residence.

Oregon’s 522nd COVID-19 death is a 72-year-old woman in Jackson County who tested positive on Aug. 28 and died on Sept. 15, at Providence Medford Medical Center.

Oregon’s 523rd COVID-19 death is an 81-year-old man in Morrow County who tested positive on Sept. 4 and died on Sept.14. Location of death is being confirmed.

Oregon’s 524th COVID-19 death is a 97-year-old-woman in Marion County who died on May 10.

Oregon’s 525th COVID-19 death is an 86-year-old man in Multnomah County who tested positive on Aug. 16 and died on Sept.16 in his residence.

Additional Graphs:

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Want to See Past Newsletters?

If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there.  Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.

AND FINALLY,

Here again are some resources that you will find useful:

If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource.  We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction. 

Best,

dembrow signature

Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23

email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-986-1723
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301