September 17th COVID-19 and Wildfire Update

Michael Dembrow

September 17, 2020

I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends in these incredibly difficult times.

Today’s newsletter is again a mixture of information about COVID and the wildfires. Again, new COVID case numbers are relatively low.  Today we’re seeing a small increase in test results (the state testing lab is now operational thanks to improvements in air quality, and as a result we’re seeing a decline in the positivity rate.  Good news there.

And even better news:  there are no new COVID deaths to report today.

For the bigger picture on COVID, today’s newsletter includes a summary and analysis of this week’s OHA COVID Weekly Report.

You’ll again see the latest news on firefighting and the weather forecast, which is overall good, but also ongoing problems with road conditions and potential problems with landslides as the rains return.  You’ll find links to resources and more stories about the truly heroic efforts being made to rescue, shelter, and aid those whose lives have been shattered by this emergency.

On the air quality front, most of Oregon is still suffering from smoke, but good news is in the offing.  As I mentioned yesterday, for those fortunate to be living or staying on the Coast, marine winds have moved most of the smoke in those areas.  The rest of the state should be there soon.  The predictions are for dramatically improved air-quality conditions by Friday afternoon for all of western and southern Oregon west of the Cascades.  Here’s an update to the state smoke advisories.

Again, please let me know if you have questions about any of the information in this newsletter.

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TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE

  • Positive Cases: OHA reports that 191 additional Oregonians have tested positive. The cumulative total for those testing positive is 28,590.
  • Total Tests: The number of reported tests has increased by 4,342. The cumulative total is now 624,164.
  • Ratio: The percentage of positive test results in Oregon is 4.4%.  The national ratio today is 5.2%.
  • Deaths: I’m pleased to report 0 additional deaths due to the coronavirus today. The total number of COVID deaths in Oregon remains at 521.
  • Hospitalized: OHA reports an additional 22 COVID hospitalizations. The total of COVID hospitalizations since the beginning of the pandemic is 2,319. 2341
  • Presumptive Cases: OHA is including “presumptive COVID-19 cases” in its daily reports, consistent with recently amended guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A presumptive case is someone who does not yet have a positive PCR test but is showing symptoms and has had close contact with a confirmed case. If they later test positive by PCR, those will be recategorized as confirmed cases.  OHA reports 24 new presumed positives today.  The total number of presumed positives is currently 1,470.
  • Other Hospital Information:
    • Patients Currently w COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 144 (28 fewer than yesterday). Of those, 109 have already received a positive test back.
    • Available ICU Beds: 150 (7 more than yesterday)
    • Other Available Beds: 621 (29 fewer than yesterday).
    • ICU Patients w COVID-19 Symptoms: 32 (7 fewer than yesterday).
    • COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 11 (4 fewer than yesterday).
    • Available Ventilators: 772 (5 fewer than yesterday).
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  • Today’s National Numbers:
  • Additional Brief Updates:
    • Business Oregon has transitioned their Small Business Navigator (created to help businesses during the pandemic) to also help businesses impacted by wildfires.
  • The Employment Department has added a Wildfires Alert box to the Unemployment Insurance site with an update on office outages and closures, and links to resources for people impacted by the fires (instructions for setting up electronic payment, updating their mailing addresses, etc.). There is also a wildfire-dedicated FAQ page.
    • Another benefit from the President’s recent Emergency Disaster Declaration is that affected Oregonians will be eligible to receive Disaster Unemployment Insurance (DUI) benefits. DUA provides benefits to individuals who are not eligible for regular unemployment insurance benefits or extensions. The disaster assistance period begins September 13, 2020 but the agency has already begun preparing to enact Disaster Unemployment Assistance (DUA).  You’ll soon find more information on the UI website.
    • A final UI item: during the Second Special Session legislators passed SB 1701, which makes it easier for people who are brought back to work part-time to be eligible for ongoing benefits. The Department had feared that it would take much longer to get it going than it has.  However, they’ve been able to make faster progress than expected, and the program should be ready to go next week.  Here’s more information and a Q & A.

Thursday Wildfire Update:  Another Good Day and Hope for Better

The Governor held another wildfire press conference this afternoon.  You can watch it here.

Fire Chief Doug Grafe reported that the positive weather predictions that I mentioned yesterday are still holding up. A storm front is coming in tonight, bringing  widespread moisture with it.  This is good news for Oregon and definitely good news for the firefighting front lines.

These storms coming off the ocean frequently come from the southwest and get captured in the Coast Range, but this one appears to be coming from the south and appears likely to be bringing widespread relief.  A lot will fall all the way to the western heights of the Cascades, perhaps from ½ inch to an an inch.  

The hope is that the rain will precede the accompanying winds, dampening the fires and the vegetation before winds come.  So far, that appears likely.  Obviously, wind can be a huge problem absent the moisture, so we’ll see.  Firefighters remain alert to the potential effects of winds on the fires on the drier eastern side of the Cascades.

With rains, of course, comes the danger of landslides and debris flows.  There are many thousands of down trees everywhere, and the increased danger from landslides will be with us for the foreseeable future.

Doug was pleased to report containment of all the coast fires, the Washington and Yamhill County fires, the Almeda Rd Fire in Medford/Phoenix/Talent (but not until disastrous loss of homes and goods), and the smaller fires in northern Clackamas County.  The control lines for all have held for more than 72 hours.

That leaves the remaining 10 large fires around the state, but there too substantial progress has been made everywhere.

Again, for maps and up-to-the-minute details on the individual fires, I’d direct you to OEM’s State of Oregon Fires and Hotspots Dashboard.

We learned from Acting State Fire Marshal Mariana Ruiz-Temple of truly heroic efforts on the part of firefighting personnel (70% of them part of volunteer fire companies) and dispatchers (some of whom worked nonstop for 48 hours.

We now have 1,261 National Guard soldiers staffing nearly 350 traffic control stops (keeping people away from dangerous areas and helping to secure the areas that have been evacuated), performing air operations in the Brattain Fire in Lake County (bringing that difficult fire to 30% containment), and staffing the mortuary center in Albany.  We did hear some good news on that last point:  at this point they believe that they will be able to end the mortuary operation on September 23. 

The number of known deceased remains at eight at this point.  The number of confirmed missing has been lowered to nine. 

The number of people being served at congregate shelters such as the Oregon Convention Center and the Salem Fairgrounds has gone down to 875.  Of those, only 130 are in the shelters themselves—the rest are in RVs on the property.  This is obviously great news, given both the exigencies of COVID and the need for privacy.  I must point out how much we owe the many volunteers who are helping to make sure that the evacuees are well fed and supported. 

The remaining evacuees (aside from those who’ve found shelter with friends and relatives) total 2,195 and are being housed in 68 different hotels/motels.

As I mentioned the other day, most of the evacuees will now be eligible for individual FEMA assistance to help them rebuild their homes and their lives.  It’s important that they first access their private insurance, a process that should begin immediately. At the same time they should register for FEMA individual assistance.  There are three ways to do that:

  1. Call 1-800-621-3362
  2. Online through the FEMA website
  3. Through the FEMA mobile app

Finally, ODOT Director Chris Strickler was on hand at the press conference to caution us to be prepared for ongoing closures of the East-West mountain valley roads (e.g., Highways 224, 22, and 126).  There are many miles of downed trees and damaged roadways.  For now, 240 miles of roads are closed.

For a better understanding of the 4 levels of road closures, here’s a handy infographic. And here’s a link to ODOT’s wildfire road closure page.

Here again are some other resources that I would recommend:

More Wildfire News Items for You

OHA/OSHA Facebook Live on Wildfire Smoke

Here’s a message just received from the Oregon Health Authority:

As wildfires continue throughout the state, many of you are wondering what exposure to unhealthy to hazardous air quality levels means for the health of you and your loved ones. Yesterday, OHA, Oregon OSHA and Oregon DEQ held a Facebook Live to answer questions from people in Oregon. You can watch the recording at the links below:

Facebook (English)

Facebook (Spanish)

YouTube

Here are timestamps of the questions:

Questions:

16:55 – Does it help to use damp face coverings for smoke?

17:30 – Do N95 masks protect against household toxins that have burned?

19:10 – What is the best mask for folks who have to work outside?

20:15 – Would you recommend opening windows in yellow or orange areas to clean out the air inside?

21:50 – What do we know about the long-term health effects of the smoke?

22:55 – How safe is the air in our vehicles?

23:30 – How dangerous is the high CO2?

25:10 – With all of the toxic particulates in the air, how is this affecting our water supply?

26:45 – Are fruits and vegetables from my garden safe to eat?

27:20 – Are medical fit tests still required for N95 masks?

30:00 – What should workers who work outside and are at high-risk do to stay safe?

31:07 – Where can I get a free N95 or KN95 mask?

Latest OHA Weekly COVID Report Released

OHA released its WEEKLY COVID REPORT today. It is again a very comprehensive snapshot of different aspects of transmission of the disease in Oregon over the past week or so.  It confirms what we’ve been seeing in our daily reports:  an ongoing reduction of transmission in Oregon, with declines in new infections, accompanied by declining testing and increases in test positivity, hospitalizations, and declining deaths.  It continues to show ongoing disproportionality among racial and ethnic groups.

Here are some of OHA’s broad observations of where we are now, based on data from September 7 to 13:

  • We are continuing to see a decline in the number of new cases. Last week OHA recorded 1,294 new cases of COVID-19 infection—down 12% from the previous week’s tally of 1,477. This is the lowest number of new infections that we’ve seen since the end of June, and it marks the 6th consecutive week of declining case counts.
  • The statewide infection rate is now 696 cases per 100,000 Oregonians.
  • As I’ve reported before, our testing is not what it should be, and it’s unfortunately getting worse. Last week’s testing numbers declined by 35% to 17,365.  That number will go up as more results come in for last week, but even when those numbers are added, it will be clear that we continue to test well below our capacity.  Some of this is likely due to the wildfires, but definitely not all. 
  • As a result of the reduced testing rate, the percentage of positive test results has gone back up to 5.6% (vs. last week’s 4.3%).
  • Last week we saw an increase in the number of reported deaths. Twenty-nine Oregonians were reported to have died last week, compared to 23 the previous week.
  • The cumulative death rate since the beginning of the pandemic is 1 deaths per 100,000 Oregonians, with a cumulative total of 511 on September 13. This remains a mortality rate of 1.7% of reported cases.
  • The number of new COVID hospitalizations also rose last week, 83 vs. an unusually low 47 for the previous week.
  • The age group with the highest incidence of reported infection continues to be 20–29-year-olds, with rates decreasing in subsequent decades of life.
  • Black Oregonians are still less likely to be interviewed as part of contact tracing than are White Oregonians; Latinx Oregonians are more likely to be interviewed than are other Oregonians. Overall, BIPOC Oregonians are slightly more likely to be interviewed than are White Oregonians.

The report again provides information about signs, symptoms, and risk factors; racial/ethnic/age/gender demographics; recovery; outbreaks in long-term care; workplace outbreaks; hospital rates; and the breakdown of cases by zip code.

Racial/Ethnic

The report again demonstrates significant disparities among racial groups.  You can see this in the charts below, with data that I’ve taken from the August 19 report, the August 26 report, and from this report.  It allows you to see at a glance the proportion of case counts within different racial groups and ethnic groups (technically, “Hispanic” is not a race and is counted as an ethnic group, with numbers from a separate chart).  They remain relatively stable. 

You’ll see again how much higher the rates per 100,000 are for most racial/ethnic groups compared to White Oregonians. Black Oregonians are 3.7 times more likely to contract the disease than are White Oregonians, Native Americans 4.5 times more likely, Latinx Oregonians are 6.5 times more likely, and Pacific Islanders are now a little under ten times more likely.  These disparities, while huge, have reduced slightly from previous counts.

You’ll also again see that the percentages of those hospitalized from the disease are somewhat lower for Blacks, Latinx, and Native Americans, and somewhat higher for Asians and Pacific Islanders than for the population of White Oregonians.  Whites in Oregon remain much more likely to die from the disease than are Non-Whites.

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The weekly report now includes graphs showing how Public Health agencies are doing in contact tracing for different racial and ethnic groups.  For the most part, the initial interviews and follow-ups with Oregonians of color appear to be comparable with White, non-Hispanic Oregonians, with the exception of the interview rate for Black Oregonians and Pacific Islanders.

Outbreaks at Long-Term Care Facilities

The report lists outbreaks at long-term care facilities with more than five residents that have three or more confirmed cases or at least one COVID death.  Fortunately, we are seeing a continued reduction in active outbreaks in these facilities.

This week’s report lists outbreaks in 38 (down from 46) long-term care facilities that are still considered active.  They are responsible for 675 cases (down from 652) and 56 deaths (down from 65). 

In addition, there are 46 outbreaks considered resolved (up from 43). They are responsible for637 cases (up from 614) and 67 deaths (down from 61).  To be listed as a “resolved” outbreak, a facility must not have had a new case in at least 28 days.

The total for the 84 active and resolved facilities on the lists this week is thus 1,312 cases and 123 deaths.

I was able to confirm with OHA that facilities that have been in “resolved” status for 56 days are being dropped from that list.  So, the totals are obviously not the totals since the beginning of the pandemic.  I’ve requested that those cumulative totals be added to the weekly report.

In addition to the listed facilities, there are now 42 (10 more than last week) congregate settings with five or fewer beds that have also had three or more confirmed cases or one or more deaths, so the above totals are actually somewhat higher.

To date, there has still been only one death of a staff member reported.

Workplace Outbreaks

Similarly, there are separate listings for workplace outbreaks that are “active” and “resolved,” but without deaths identified by workplace.  Case counts include all persons linked to the outbreak, which may include household members and other close contacts. To protect privacy, OHA is only reporting workplace outbreaks with five or more cases (workers and family members) and only for workplaces with at least 30 workers.  They are listed in descending order of number of cases.

You’ll find 66 workplaces (down from 74 last week) listed as “Active” this week, totaling 2,264 (up slightly from 2253 last week). 

A facility goes onto the resolved list once it has not had a new case in 28 days.

59 workplaces (up from 58) are now listed as “Resolved,” totaling 1,074 cases (up slightly from 1,073 last week). 

As is the case with the long-term care lists, once a workplace outbreak has been in resolved status for 56 days, it is dropped from the list.

The total number of cases for both is thus 3,338 (from 3,326 last week).

So far, eight deaths have been the result of workplace outbreaks, a figure fortunately unchanged for more than two months.

The top two workplace outbreaks in Oregon today are again in Eastern Oregon state prisons, and another Eastern Oregon prison is not far behind. I will add that I don’t believe that the 8 deaths attributed to workplace outbreaks include the deaths of adults in custody.  There have now been six.

Childcare Outbreaks

The Weekly Report again includes names and case counts for childcare facilities that enroll 30 or more children and have five or more cases.  The one that had previously been listed as active (Trout Creek Bible Camp in Corbett), is now in resolved status.  There is only one center still considered active, Little Village Learning Center in Salem, which reports five cases. 

Without listing them by name, the Weekly Report also includes the total number of smaller facilities (i.e., enrolling fewer than 30 children) that have had five or more cases.  OHA reports that there have now been five such facilities, the same number as last week.

These case counts may include children, staff, and household members.

Infections by Zip Code

You’ll see that the zip code list again reveals the various hot spots around the state, presented in terms of cases per 10K residents.  They are exactly the same (from Umatilla/Morrow, Jefferson, and Malheur Counties) as they’ve been for the last few weeks:

  1. 97818 (Boardman in Morrow County)
  2. 97761 (Warm Springs in Jefferson County)
  3. 97838 (Hermiston in Umatilla and Morrow Counties)
  4. 97882 (Umatilla in Umatilla County)
  5. 97914 (Ontario in Malheur County)

97875 (Stanfield in Umatilla County) remains on deck at #6.

Here is a zip code locator for you to use as you look at the zip code numbers.

Where Are Today’s New Cases?

If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive” cases reported today, the overall number of new cases is 215.  Here is the breakdown by county for today:

Benton (2)

Clackamas (11)

Clatsop (1)

Columbia (3)

Deschutes (7)

Douglas (1)

Grant (2)

Hood River (1)

Jackson (14)

Jefferson (7)

Klamath (7)

Lane (23)

Linn (11)

Malheur (11)

Marion (28)

Morrow (1)

Multnomah (43)

Polk (2)

Tillamook (1)

Umatilla (7)

Washington (29)

Yamhill (3)

Additional Graphs:

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Want to See Past Newsletters?

If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there.  Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.

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AND FINALLY,

Here again are some resources that you will find useful:

If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource.  We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction. 

Best,

dembrow signature

Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23


email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-986-1723
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301