September 4 COVID-19 Update

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Michael Dembrow

Friends and Neighbors,

September 4, 2020

I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends.

In today’s newsletter you’ll see more evidence of the gradually improving COVID situation here in Oregon.  We just received the latest update to the model that OHA is using to monitor the progress of the disease, and it clearly reflects a downward trend. It’s described further down in the newsletter.  You’ll find more information there about the positive effect that face-covering and other strategies appear to be having.  

We do have some challenges us before us—most immediately the upcoming Labor Day holiday weekend and the inevitable desire to get away, congregate, socialize, and get back to a bit of normalcy.  Hopefully, people will remain careful.

Please do have a great weekend, but do remain as careful as you can be.

TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE

  • Positive Cases: OHA reported on Saturday that 253 additional Oregonians have tested positive for COVID. The cumulative total for those testing positive is now 26,268.
  • Total Tests: The number of reported tests has increased by 5,792. The cumulative total is now 575,596.
  • Ratio: The percentage of positive cases in Oregon is 4.4% of total results, just under the statewide threshold for in-person school reopening. The national percentage today is 5.8%.  
  • Deaths: I’m sorry to report 5 additional deaths due to the coronavirus today. You can read more about the Oregonians we lost further down in the newsletter.  The total number of COVID deaths in Oregon is now at 475.
  • Hospitalized: OHA reports today that the cumulative number of those who have been hospitalized with COVID since the beginning of the pandemic is 2,161. That’s actually a REDUCTION of 14 from yesterday’s reported total of 2,175. I checked with OHA, and they told me that this is the result of a routine quality control check of the data coming in from hospitals. These kinds of readjustments happen frequently. The fact that we’re in negative territory today is a symptom of the relatively low number of new hospitalizations we’ve been experiencing recently.
  • Presumptive Cases: OHA is including “presumptive COVID-19 cases” in its daily reports, consistent with recently amended guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A presumptive case is someone who does not yet have a positive PCR test but is showing symptoms and has had close contact with a confirmed case. If they later test positive by PCR, those will be recategorized as confirmed cases. OHA reports 15 new presumed positive cases today.  The cumulative number of those presumed positive is 1,333.
  • Other Hospital Information:
    • Patients Currently w COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 147 (14 more than yesterday). Of those, 91 have already received a positive test back.
    • Available ICU Beds: 145 (26 fewer than yesterday)
    • Other Available Beds: 681 (28 fewer than yesterday).
    • ICU Patients w COVID-19 Symptoms: 45 (2 more than yesterday).
    • COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 23 (3 fewer than yesterday).
    • Available Ventilators: 775 (same as yesterday).
  • Additional Brief Updates
    • Legislators received word late this afternoon that the Governor will NOT be calling the Legislature into special session during the month of September. Committees will be meeting to monitor COVID response, but any further action—aside from budget allocations via the Emergency Board--will need to come via executive order, at least for the next month.
    • The Governor held a press conference this morning, joined by the OHA Director and State Epidemiologist. They went over the latest (positive) COVID trends, including the just-released update to the modeling (see below for details on that). The Governor also made a special plea to Oregonians to be careful this Labor Day weekend, so that we don’t wind up with a setback in the fight against COVID. She also addressed a number of questions related to the protests and acts of violence in Portland. You can watch the press conference here. You can watch the press conference here.


Disease Model Updated This Week: More Good News

We’ve received the latest update to the Institute for Disease Modeling’s OREGON COVID EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODEL Oregon COVID Epidemiological Model Report.

It’s based on data as of the end of last week. Based on that data (which includes both case data and hospitalization data), they believe that the signs continue to be encouraging.

After seeing infection rates decline substantially after the initial school closures and Stay Home orders in March, Oregon’s rates jumped after the initial reopenings, then declined somewhat after the face covering and social distancing orders that were issued in June and July.  We are now seeing the ongoing effects of those declines.  

They point out that the number of COVID-19 cases has been declining for over a month, as have severe cases (i.e., those requiring hospitalization) for about two weeks.

The model estimates that, as of August 27, a total of 107,100 cumulative infections have occurred in Oregon, but only 26,500 have been diagnosed according to available data. Thus, for every positive test result, there are likely 3 undiagnosed cases out there.

The modelers believe that the “Re” (Effective Reproduction Number, the number of secondary cases generated by a single case) in Oregon has declined to .9. As a result, we are seeing a reduction in the number of new cases.

The projection report again provides us with three possible scenarios looking forward, but with a slightly different wrinkle: we again are given an “as is” scenario, in which the transmission rate stays where it is now, a “best case” scenario, and a “worst case” scenario.  However, whereas in previous versions the “best case” scenario looked at a potential reduction of 10% in transmission rate and the “worst case” scenario an increase of 10%, in this version the swings are only 5%. 

As Is

If we continue as we are now between August 14 and September 24 (with an Re of .9), the number of positive test results will decline from the current 210 to approximately 150 positive test results each day (totaling approximately 410 if we include the undetected cases, down from 560). The number of daily new severe cases (i.e., requiring hospitalization) will decrease to 6 (from current 12).

Best Case

In the “best case” scenario, assuming a reduction in spread of 5% that holds between August 27 and September 24th,  we see an Re of about 0.77.  The daily rate of increase will drop to approximately 90 positive test results per day. The total number of detected and undetected cases will drop to 240. We’ll see the hospitalization rate go down to 5 per day.

Worst Case

In the “worst case” scenario, assuming an INCREASE in spread of 5% that holds over the next month, by September 24th we see an Re of 1.05.  The number of daily positive test results will increase to approximately 180, with the total number of detected and undetected cases increasing to 380 per day by September 24th. The number of hospitalizations will rise to 11 per day.

If we compare earlier model reports to this one, we see the effects of our improving numbers on the model.  The report does point out that their projection has now become slightly more optimistic than those from other analysts, such as  the CDC, COVID-ActNow,  and  RT Live.

Needless to say, the model doesn’t tell us WHICH scenario we will actually experience over the next month. That will be a function of how Oregonians adhere to face-covering, limits on gatherings, and other policies.  The modelers believe that for now, the “as-is” scenario is the most likely. 

Finally, at least part of the reason for our current reductions is likely due to improved social distancing and increased wearing of face coverings in Oregon. The report tells us that information from the Institute from Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) suggest that the percentage of people always wearing a mask in public has been increasing since early spring in Oregon, and between early-July and late-August roughly 40-50% reported always doing so (IHME Oregon Estimates IHME Oregon Estimates ). IHME projections suggest that increased universal mask wearing could lead to further reductions in transmission (IHME Paper ).


Where Are Today’s New Cases?

If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive” cases reported today, the overall number of new cases is 268. More than 2/3 of the new cases are outside the Portland Tri-County area today, with Marion County showing the highest individual count.  We are also continuing to see higher numbers from Lane County. Here is the breakdown by county for today:

Benton (4)

Clackamas (18)

Clatsop (1)

Coos (1)

Crook (2)

Deschutes (2)

Hood River (2)

Jackson (12)

Jefferson (1)

Josephine (6)

Lake (2)

Lane (22)

Linn (5)

Malheur (31)

Marion (44)

Morrow (6)

Multnomah (43)

Polk (3)

Tillamook (2)

Umatilla (32)

Union (1)

Wasco (2)

Washington (23)

Yamhill (2)

 

And the Deaths

Oregon’s 471st COVID-19 death is a 43-year-old man in Clackamas County who tested positive on Aug. 12 and died on Aug. 26, at Providence St. Vincent Medical Center.

Oregon’s 472nd COVID-19 death is a 52-year-old man in Multnomah County who tested positive on Aug. 25 and died on Sept. 2, at Legacy Emanuel Medical Center.

Oregon’s 473rd COVID-19 death is a 73-year-old man in Multnomah County who tested positive on Aug. 13 and died on Sept. 1, at Legacy Good Samaritan Medical Center.

Oregon’s 474th COVID-19 death is a 56-year-old woman in Washington County who tested positive on July 15 and died on Sept. 3 at OHSU.

Oregon’s 475th COVID-19 death is an 87-year-old woman in Multnomah County who tested positive on April 16 and died on July 18 in her residence.

 

Additional Graphs:

newTestsPositivityHospital

Want to See Past Newsletters?

If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there.  Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.

 

Labor Day

AND FINALLY,

Here again are some resources that you will find useful:

If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource.  We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction. 

Best,

dembrow signature

Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23


email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-281-0608
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301