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July 11, 2020
Dear Neighbors and Friends:
I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends.
Today is another record-setting day for new COVID infections in Oregon (at 409), but this one has an asterisk attached to it: a change in record-keeping means that some of the infections reported today actually should have been part of Thursday’s numbers. (This is scant consolation, though, in that Thursday’s 355 reported cases was already a record.) This includes both confirmed test results and presumed positives. On Monday we’ll receive the separate numbers for tests and those presumed positive.
A large number of those infections are here in Multnomah County (99, which I believe is a record for the county), but you’ll see from the information below that they are spread all over the state. This being Saturday, I’m also including a detailed look at the spread of COVID in all the counties over the last week. You’ll see the infection rates on a per capita basis, along with charts showing how the disease has been developing over the last month.
As I mentioned yesterday in the modeling report, we’re in better shape as a state than many others, but if we stay on the current trajectory, we will be in trouble. Some of this is due to reopening decisions, but I would say that much of it is due not so much to anything official, but rather to individual “COVID Fatigue,” which is causing people to want to travel, want to socialize, want to get back to normal.
I’m hearing each day from constituents who want the Governor to take a step back in reopening, to reverse the reopening of restaurants, bars, personal services, etc., and cancel plans to reopen face-to-face schooling in the fall. That may be where we land, at least in some parts of the state if we can’t stem the current increases. I hope we don’t need to go there.
I will say that at this point the OHA doesn’t believe that such an outcome is inevitable. They believe that it’s not too late for us to slow down the increases by decisions that we each make. This is not an all-or-nothing thing. Yes, some people will refuse or forget to wear a mask, or otherwise not follow recommendations or requirements for indoor activities and may further spread the disease. But the less often that happens, the better our chances for slowing the spread.
Last night OHA put out some recommendations for us each to consider as we’re deciding what steps to take for ourselves and our families regarding those social situations that we now know are leading to big increases. It includes scripts that people can use in communicating their decisions to others. I don’t know about you, but I’m incapable of following scripts like that and would never do so. Still, the ideas behind them are things worth thinking about, and I encourage you to do so.
TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE
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Positive Cases: OHA reports today that 409 additional Oregonians have either tested positive for COVID or are presumed positive due to symptoms while awaiting test results. The cumulative total for those testing positive and presumed positive is now 11,851. On Monday I’ll be able give the exact number of positive test results alone.
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Caveat: Today’s high number is partially due to a transition to a new reporting system, which prevented the processing of positive cases for a few hours Thursday. Those cases are included in today’s case count.
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Total Tests: The number of positive tests plus presumed positives plus negative tests increased by 5,986. The cumulative total is now 292,183. On Monday I’ll be able give the exact number of positive and negative test results alone.
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Ratio: The percentage of positive tests results and presumed positives is 6.8% of total tests reported today. This is likely somewhat high because it includes added numbers from Thursday. The national percentage today is 8.6%.
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Deaths: On the positive side, I’m happy to report 0 additional deaths due to the coronavirus. The total number of deaths in Oregon remains at 232.
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Hospitalized: OHA is not reporting new hospitalization numbers over the weekend, so for now the cumulative number of those who have been hospitalized with COVID remains at 1,180. I’ll have updated numbers on Monday.
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Presumptive Cases: OHA is now including “presumptive COVID-19 cases” in its daily reports, consistent with recently amended guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A presumptive case is someone who does not yet have a positive PCR test result but is showing symptoms and has had close contact with a confirmed case. If they later test positive by PCR, those will be recategorized as confirmed cases.
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Other Hospital Information: The numbers from yesterday will remain unchanged until Monday.
- Patients Currently w COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 208 (16 more than yesterday). Of those, 139 have already received a positive test back.
- Available ICU Beds: 117 (8 fewer than yesterday).
- Other Available Beds: 680 (18 fewer than yesterday).
- ICU Patients w COVID-19 Symptoms: 56 (3 fewer than yesterday).
- COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 30 (5 more than yesterday).
- Available Ventilators: 776 (11 fewer than yesterday).
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Dashboards
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Today’s National Numbers:
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PPE:
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Additional Brief Items:
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The Oregonian has published an investigative piece by Fedor Zarkhin that looks back at the tragic illnesses and deaths at the Healthcare at Foster Creek long-term care residence. You may remember this story as it was happening at the time, relatively early in the pandemic, as it became increasingly clear that this Medicaid-intensive facility could not manage the disease among its vulnerable population, resulting in 134 infections and 34 deaths and ultimately the shutdown of the facility. Zarkhin shows the effects of the weight of bureaucractic processes and bureaucratic silos (Multnomah County Health, OHA, DHS) to tragic results. On the positive side, lessons were learned and changes have been made to more closely coordinate the work of OHA and DHS with long-term care facilities. It’s a sad story that we’ve seen play out around the nation. Now that we’re seeing case numbers surging among the general population, it’s more important than ever that agencies are vigilant, that facilities follow best practices without exception, and that care workers are given the support that they need.
What’s Going On In the Counties?
Each Saturday I’m tracking how individual counties are doing now that all are either in Phase One or Phase Two and we are seeing a number of relaxations statewide as well. The key metrics that OHA is watching are the number of positive test results and the percentage of positive test results among all tests administered; the latter will be the more important way for us to see if the infection rate is increasing as a result of reopening and increased testing. (They also are looking at hospital capacity and changes in hospitalization rates, but I don’t have that information by county.)
But first, I want to reproduce the current interactive county dashboard that the OHA has on its website. It shows case counts and total testing by county, scaled to cases per 10,000, so that we can see how the infection is penetrating the various counties, irrespective of their population size. This is what we see as of July 10:
This is a useful view because it allows us to see the infection rate within each county, irrespective of their total populations. If you look at the rankings, you can see the influence and lingering effects of outbreaks at workplaces (especially agriculture and food processing), congregate care facilities, and the church community in Union County. They are particularly noticeable in the less populous counties.
Looking at the tables below, you’ll again see significant increases this week both in the numbers of new cases and in the percentages of new cases. The latter is the more accurate way to gauge the penetration of the disease in a given county. In order to make the current trends in positive percentages more obvious, I’m again showing you the week-over-week percentages, along with the percentage of positive cases for each county since the beginning of the pandemic.
Where Are Today’s New Cases?
If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive” cases reported today, the overall number of new cases is 409. More than half are from outside the Portland Tri-County region. Here is the breakdown by county for today:
Baker (2)
Benton (6)
Clackamas (29)
Columbia (1)
Coos (2)
Deschutes (15)
Douglas (2)
Hood River (2)
Jackson (5)
Jefferson (4)
Josephine (3)
Klamath (4)
Lane (13)
Lincoln (1)
Linn (2)
Malheur (16)
Marion (61)
Morrow (7)
Multnomah (99)
Polk (2)
Serman (1)
Tillamook (1)
Umatilla (50)
Union (1)
Wallowa (1)
Wasco (10)
Washington (55)
Yamhill (15)
Additional Graphs:
Want to See Past Newsletters?
If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (www.senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there. Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.
AND FINALLY,
Here again are some resources that you will find useful:
If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource. We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction.
Best,
 Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23
email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-986-1723
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301
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