July 1st COVID-19 Update

Michael Dembrow

July 1, 2020

Dear Neighbors and Friends:

I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends.

As we head into the Fourth of July holiday weekend, it’s becoming increasingly clear that we’re going to have to go back to being as vigilant as we were during the early days of the pandemic.  We’ll want to keep outdoors for any social gatherings, keep those gatherings small, retain 6-foot social distancing when around those not in our households or immediate family/social circles, and wear face coverings if indoors with that wider circle of friends.  Those of us with family in long-term care facilities won’t be able to be with them in person for the holiday.  No big civic celebrations, no parades.  It’s a bummer.

But it’s the unfortunate reality of where we are.  Oregon set a record today for the largest single-day number of infections—a total of 281.  I think we are also seeing a record number of counties with infections reported in one day—26 of our 36 counties reported at least one case, with Washington County setting a single day record.  We are seeing the virus hit all over the state, with 2/3 of today’s cases occurring outside of the Tri-County Metro area.

There are some good signs.  Those 281 cases can partially be attributed to a very high number of tests (5,711), so today’s positivity rate of 4.6% remains well below the national average.  In general, the penetration rate for Oregon is well below what we’re seeing in our neighboring states and the nation as a whole.  Our hospitalization rate is going up, but since most of the newly infected are younger, we’re not seeing those numbers rising to the point that medical leaders are worried about resources—at least not yet.

What does have the authorities concerned is that more and more of the cases are difficult to pinpoint to a particular outbreak.  This suggests that the disease is starting to spread more widely in communities around the state.  It also reflects difficulties that contact tracers are having.  I was on a call yesterday with county leaders, who reported that many of their tracers are having difficulty in getting people to return their calls and pinpoint their potential contacts, and in some cases to agree to be tested or to be willing to self-isolate.  It’s difficult work, compounded by the fact that not all the counties are fully staffed or have enough tracers with the linguistic and cultural skills needed to reach out and be trusted by those they’re seeking to work with.

In today’s newsletter you’ll also find information from this week’s OHA Weekly COVID Report, which will give you a better sense of where we are as a state right now.  I hope you find it useful as you navigate these difficult times.

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TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE

  • Positive Cases: OHA reports today that 260 additional Oregonians have tested positive for COVID.  The cumulative total for those testing positive is now 8,525.
  • Total Tests: The cumulative total number of positive cases and negative tests in Oregon is now 242,954 an increase of 5,711.
  • Ratio: The percentage of positive results for the four days since Thursday is 4.6%. The national percentage is 8.1%.  See below for a graph showing Oregon’s daily percentage changes over the last 14 days. 
  • Deaths: I’m afraid that I have to report 1 additional death due to the coronavirus today.  The total number of deaths in Oregon is now 208.
  • Hospitalized: OHA reported that 17 more Oregonians have been hospitalized for COVID-19. The cumulative total is now 1,055.
  • Presumptive Cases: OHA is now including “presumptive COVID-19 cases” in its daily reports, consistent with recently amended guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A presumptive case is someone who does not yet have a positive PCR test result but is showing symptoms and has had close contact with a confirmed case. If they later test positive by PCR, those will be recategorized as confirmed cases.  The total number of those presumed positive is now 406, an additional 21.
  • Other Hospital Information:
    • Patients Currently w COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 192 (43 more than yesterday). Of those, 118 have already received a positive test back, 10 more than on yesterday.
    • Available ICU Beds: 176 (24 more than yesterday).
    • Other Available Beds: 788 (45 fewer than yesterday).
    • ICU Patients w COVID-19 Symptoms: 62 (20 more than yesterday).
    • COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 24 (1 fewer than yesterday).
    • Available Ventilators: 784 (9 fewer than yesterday).
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  • Today’s National Numbers:
  • PPE:
  • Additional Brief Updates:
    • I mentioned yesterday that the Governor was scheduled to give a press conference this morning about her new face covering order. You can watch the press conference here.  She is joined by the state epidemiologist and the medical director for OHSU.
    • The Oregon Department of Education has released the first update of its reopening plan, "Ready Schools, Safe Learners."  The first few pages of the new document are a list of changes from the first version.  School districts are hard at work on creating their blueprints for the fall.  They’re due mid-August.
    • Our friends at the Office of Economic Analysis have just issued a blog post trying to answer two questions related to the reopening of bars and restaurants: how much pent-up demand was out there for sit-down dining service and how much for video lottery? You’ll see—perhaps it’s no surprise—that there was a huge pent-up demand for video lottery and not so much for sit-down dining.  This bodes well for those programs that are funded by lottery revenues but not for the businesses that are hoping to get back to normal during the ongoing pandemic.
    • We received an update today from David Gerstenfeld, the Interim Director of the Employment Department.  It includes updates on the amount of benefits paid out, the extra employees the department has brought on to address the backlog of claims, and their efforts to improve their handling of PUA claims.  Read it here.

Latest OHA Weekly Report Released

This week's report was released this afternoon. 

Here are some of OHA’s broad observations of where we are now, based on data from June 22-28:

  • We are seeing a resurgence in COVID-19 transmission.
  • In the last week we’ve seen 1,402 new cases of COVID-19 infection, an 11 percent increase from the last week’s 1,263 new cases).
  • 12 Oregonians were reported to have died, the same number as last week.
  • Testing was down by 11% during this period.
  • The percentage of positive test results increased from 3.7% to 4.2%.
  • These increases are no longer mainly due to large outbreaks at workplaces and long-term care facilities and more due to what OHA calls “sporadic cases,” which suggests that the disease is spreading more broadly into the community.
  • 75% of recent cases are in Oregonians younger than 50.
  • As a result of these younger cases, who are less likely to require hospitalization, OHA is not worried about hospital capacity for now.

The report again demonstrates significant disparities among racial groups.  You can see this in the charts below, with data that I’ve taken from the June 17 report, from the June 24 report, and from this report.  It allows you to see at a glance the proportion of case counts within different racial groups and ethnic groups (technically, “Hispanic” is not a race and is counted as an ethnic group, with numbers from a separate chart). 

You’ll see again how much higher the rates per 10,000 are for most racial/ethnic groups compared to White Oregonians, and you’ll see that the spread continues to increase.  You’ll also again see that the percentages of those hospitalized or dying from the disease are significantly lower for non-Whites than for the population of White Oregonians. The percentage of infections that lead to hospitalizations and to death continue to go down.

The OHA has confirmed that this may be a function of age: many of those contracting the virus via workplace outbreaks are from BIPOC (Black, Indigenous, People of Color) populations.  These frontline workers tend to be younger and thus somewhat less likely to experience severe consequences from the disease. 

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The report again provides information about signs, symptoms, and risk factors; racial/ethnic/age/gender demographics; recovery; outbreaks in long-term care; workplace outbreaks; hospital rates; and the breakdown of cases by zip code.

This week’s report shows 21 outbreaks in long-term care facilities that are still considered active.  They are responsible for 355 cases and 25 deaths.  In addition, there are 36 outbreaks considered resolved.  They are responsible for 563 cases and 99 deaths.  The total for active and resolved facilities is thus 918 cases and 124 deaths. (The facilities listed include all where there was at least one death and at least three cases, so the above total should include all of the deaths in Oregon, but there are additional cases out there that are not included.)

Similarly, there are separate listings for workplace outbreaks that are “active” and “resolved,” but without deaths identified by workplace.  So far, eight deaths have been the result of workplace outbreaks, a figure unchanged from last week.  Thirty-two workplaces are on the active list (870 cases), and 29 of those listed are resolved (1,282), for a total case count of 2,152. These workplace outbreaks constituted a little over 25% of the total count on June 28.

Here again is what OHA has to say about these workplace outbreaks:

The presence of correctional facilities and food packing and agricultural worksites on this list highlights the challenges of controlling COVID-19 in settings where people must work or live in close proximity. In addition, people of color are overrepresented in agricultural and correctional settings, perhaps contributing to higher rates of COVID-19 observed in these groups. OHA publishes these data in response to public request, but with some concern that workers or staff members at these workplaces might be subject to discrimination. State and local public health officials work intensively with staff at workplaces where outbreaks are identified to isolate sick workers, test and quarantine those who have been exposed and implement workplace changes to reduce risk of transmission. Unless otherwise noted, public health officials have determined that these workplaces, their employees and their products do not pose significant risk to the public. Employees of a business with a workplace outbreak should never be subjected to discrimination or excluded from patronizing other businesses. In fact, discriminating against employees or avoiding products might jeopardize the economic viability of essential local businesses.

You’ll see that the zip code list again reveals the various hot spots around the state, presented in terms of cases per 10K residents.  The top five should come as no surprise:

97365 (Newport, where the Pacific Seafood outbreak has entered the community), 97850  (LaGrande, site of the big outbreak at the Pentecostal church), 97761 (Warm Springs in Jefferson County), 97838 (Hermiston, site of the big workplace outbreak at Lamb Weston), and 97026 (agricultural Marion County).  Here is a zip code locator for you to use as you look at the zip code numbers.

 OHA Now Reporting Outbreaks in Child Care Facilities

You may have seen in the media reports of a large outbreak at a childcare center in Lake Oswego, Lake Grove KinderCare.  OHA started the investigation there on June 16, with the most recent case reported on June 19. A total of 28 cases have been reported so far by OHA.  They include children, staff, and family members.  The facility itself has reported that eight of those testing positive are children.  

Starting today, the Weekly Report includes names and case counts for child care facilities that enroll 30 or more children and have five or more cases. The Weekly Report also will include the total number of facilities statewide—no matter how many children they enroll—that have five or more cases.

Today’s report does not include any other facilities, so presumably no other facilities in the state have had five or more cases so far.

Still, this is concerning.  Speaking for myself, I realize I’ve been lulled into a false sense of security with the lack of news about cases at childcare centers.  We’ve heard that young children are much less likely to catch and transmit the virus, but we’re now starting to hear from national data that perhaps that’s not true.  There’s so much about COVID that’s still not completely known.  It’s going to be important for us to closely watch these childcare centers that have remained open throughout the pandemic to see how they are doing.  There may well be lessons to be learned as we prepare to reopen our schools in the fall.  So it’s good that the OHA will be reporting on them regularly.

Where Are Today’s New Cases?

If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive” cases reported today, the overall number of new cases is 281.  Here is the breakdown by county for today:

Baker (3)

Benton (2)

Clackamas (20)

Clatsop (1)

Columbia (1)

Deschutes (4)

Douglas (2)

Jackson (3)

Jefferson (7)

Klamath (4)

Lake (2)

Lane (12)

Lincoln (12)

Linn (7)

Malheur (16)

Marion (27)

Morrow (2)

Multnomah (38)

Polk (8)

Tillamook (2)

Umatilla (42)

Union (5)

Wallowa (2)

Wasco (4)

Washington (48)

Yamhill (7)

And the Death:

The OHA had this to say about the Oregonian we most recently lost to COVID-19:

Oregon’s 208th COVID-19 death is a 91-year-old woman in Marion County who tested positive on June 18 and died on June 29. Her place of death is being confirmed. She had underlying medical conditions.

Special Session Review #4: SB 1601, Transit Funding and Moratorium on DMV Citations

SB 1601 was another bill designed to address temporary problems caused by coronavirus response.  This one focuses on problems experienced by transit and by drivers.  It does so in two ways:

  • Allows transit agencies flexibility with how they use transit dollars from the 2017 transportation package. That 2017 package created the “Statewide Transportation Improvement Fund.” These dollars (funded by payroll taxes) are intended for “expanding, enhancing, and connecting service.”  However, given the severe drop in fare revenues (with transit initially reserved for essential workers and emergency needs) and added costs due to the pandemic, transit agencies need some of these dollars just to keep operations going.  Once the pandemic subsides and operations return to normal, the agencies are required to return to prioritizing “expanding, enhancing, and connecting service” with those funds.
  • SB 1601 also provides legislative legal confirmation that drivers with expired licenses, permits, and registration won’t be penalized during the emergency. DMV is only now starting to reopen its field offices, and many thousands of Oregonians have been unable to update their licenses, permits, and registrations. This bill provides them with immunity from March 1 to December 31, 2020.

Legislators also took advantage of this bill to incorporate some consensus technical fixes that were slated to be addressed during the last session, but the Republican walkout made it impossible for those corrections to be finalized.

Additional Graphs:

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Want to See Past Newsletters?

If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (www.senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there.  Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.

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AND FINALLY,

Here again are some resources that you will find useful:

If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource.  We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction. 

Best,

dembrow signature

Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23


email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-986-1723
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301