June 26th COVID & Special Session Update

June 26, 2020

Dear Neighbors and Friends:

I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends.

As I write this, we’re on what I think will be our final break before finishing the last bills and adjourning the special session, at least in the Senate.  Things are taking longer in the House because they have twice as many members, and the logistics of social distancing are trickier for them.  (In addition, the speeches tend to be longer and more frequent on the House side, yes, even in a pandemic!) But they too should be finishing up before too long.

The session accomplished some important things.  On the COVID front, we were able to put our legislative stamp of approval on a number of actions taken by the Governor via executive order, and, I believe, improve them in some cases.  I’m thinking for example of the temporary prohibitions on evictions and foreclosures during the emergency.  The Legislature was able to come up with a way to give renters and mortgage holders more time and an easier path to repay what they owe once the emergency is over. 

We were able to pass several bills that would have passed in the February session if the Republican walkout had not occurred, including two that address issues that I’ve been working on for quite some time:  SB 1602, which regulates aerial pesticide spraying in our state and private forests; and HB 4210, which prohibits driving license suspensions purely because of inability to pay fines.

But the most noteworthy of the bills that we passed today was the suite of police accountability bills that came to us from the Legislature’s new People of Color Caucus.  These bills were all important accomplishments in and of themselves, but what’s more important is the floor that they set for further work, including further clarity and toughening of the bills that were passed.  That work begins immediately, as early as next week, and with ongoing leadership from members of the POC Caucus.  If they’re able to get bills finalized in time for the next special session that we expect will occur sometime in the next month, we’ll take them up then.

I encourage you to look at the police accountability, including the “Whereases” that are included in them. (The “Whereases” don’t actually become part of the law, but they clarify the purpose of the bills and the values that the Legislature is affirming.)  As they should, I think all or nearly all of them begin with “Whereas, Black Lives Matter.”

In an incredible coincidence of history, the day that we passed all these bills, June 26, is the anniversary of something that happened here in Oregon 176 years ago.  On June 26, 1844, “the legislative committee of the territory then known as ‘Oregon Country” passed the first of a series of “black exclusion” laws.  The law dictated that free African Americans were prohibited from moving into Oregon Country.  Those who violated the law could be whipped “not less than twenty and not more than thirty-eight times.”  Senator Lew Frederick mentioned this coincidence on the floor just before we adjourned, observing that it should remind us that we have made real progress today,  but also that we have much more to do to erase the legacy of this past.

Moving over to the subject of the pandemic, today is another day with a near-record high number of positive test results.  Unfortunately, the OHA is having a problem with its reporting of negative test results, so we don’t have total test numbers and consequently no sense of the percentage of positives.  Even so, 227 positive test results in one day is a really scary number.  That includes 61 positive results for Multnomah County alone.

As worrisome as these numbers are, you’ll see from the report below on the updated modeling that OHA has received, that it’s not unexpected.  We are seeing increased numbers that are the result both of increased testing and of the disease spreading into communities.  According to the model, we may see Oregon’s COVID case counts getting up to just under 1000 cases a day in the next month as a result of reopening.  On the other hand, as you’ll see, it’s within our power to keep that rate much lower.  It’s a matter of actions that we choose to take as individuals, as employers, as communities.

TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDAT

• Positive Cases: OHA reports today that 227 additional Oregonians have tested positive.  The cumulative total for those testing positive is now 7,521.
• Total Tests: The cumulative total number tests in Oregon remains at 216,344 until we get updated numbers from OHA.
• Ratio: Since we don’t yet have updated test numbers for today, the percentage of positive results for today remains at 4.2%. The national percentage is 6.5%. See below for a graph showing Oregon’s daily percentage changes over the last 14 days. 
• Deaths: I’m afraid that I have to report 5 additional deaths due to the coronavirus reported today.  The total number of deaths in Oregon is now 202.      
• Hospitalized: OHA reported 10 new COVID hospitalizations today. The cumulative total of those who’ve been hospitalized for COVID-19 is now 1,022.
• Presumptive Cases: OHA is now including “presumptive COVID-19 cases” in its daily reports, consistent with recently amended guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A presumptive case is someone who does not yet have a positive PCR test result but is showing symptoms and has had close contact with a confirmed case. If they later test positive by PCR, those will be recategorized as confirmed cases.  OHA reports 23 additional presumptive positives today. The total number of presumptive cases is 297.
• Other Hospital Information:
  • Patients Currently w COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 149 (40 fewer than yesterday). Of those, 98 have already received a positive test back.
  • Available ICU Beds: 154 (4 more than yesterday).
  • Other Available Beds: 688 (6 more than yesterday).
  • ICU Patients w COVID-19 Symptoms: 53 (7 fewer than yesterday).
  • COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 35 (six more than yesterday).
  • Available Ventilators: 785 (1 fewer than yesterday).
• Dashboards
  • Oregon (OHA)
  • Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas, & Yamhill Counties
• Today’s National Numbers:
  • Total Tests: 29,810,767 (up 602,947 from yesterday).
  • Positive Tests: 2,455,351 (up 44,373 from yesterday).
  • Deaths: 650 (up 619 from yesterday).
  • These national numbers come from the COVID Tracking Project. You can follow their updated numbers for each, state and the nation as a whole here.
• PPE:
  • In the last 24 hours the Emergency Coordination Center has received 3,600 N95 masks, 68,799 gowns, and 3,300 face shields. You can track the history of incoming and outgoing PPE shipments here.
• Additional Brief Updates:
  • The Governor’s Office has released and updated set of guidelines for those counties where face coverings are required for people entering indoor public spaces (Multnomah, Clackamas, Washington, Marion, Polk, Hood River, Lincoln) and also updated its guidelines for the rest of the state. The updated guidelines clarify what is meant by public indoor space. Affected indoor spaces are defined as spaces, whether publicly owned or privately owned, "where the public has access by right or invitation, express or implied, whether by payment of money or not." In addition to the public areas of the businesses those spaces include building lobbies or common spaces, elevators, and buildings or meeting rooms outside of private homes where people gather for social, civic, cultural or religious purposes.
  • In addition to the above seven counties specified in the Governor’s order, the Clatsop County Board of Commissioners has requested that Clatsop County be added to that group. The requirement there will take effect on July 1.

New COVID Modeling Report Out – The News Is Not Good

OHA has released an update to the Institute for Disease Modeling's Oregon COVID projections.  It incorporates the higher numbers that we’ve been experiencing over the last four weeks and uses them to adjust the projection according to three scenarios: optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic.  The optimistic scenario assumes that our higher numbers are the result of more pervasive testing.  The moderate scenario assumes that they are due to a combination of more testing and a greater spread of the virus.  The pessimistic scenario assumes that increased testing has little to do with the increase in cases but is essentially due to the spread of the virus alone.  Here are the details:

• The optimistic scenario with those assumptions suggests the previous modeling increase of June 11 was the result of higher testing and that case counts would remain stable at about 180 per day over the next month. This is the least likely scenario to occur because it assumes diagnosis of all new cases and presently about one-third of new infections cannot be traced to a known source.
• The moderate scenario suggests the rise in cases in the last modeling report was due to increased transmission and expanded testing -- and that daily infections of COVID-19 could rise over the next month to more than 900 per day, with daily hospitalizations rising from 8 to 27.
• The most pessimistic scenario suggests the rise in cases in the last modeling report was due entirely to increased transmission and not expanded testing -- and that infections could rise to more than 4,800, and hospitalizations could increase to 82 per day.

The report states that it is unlikely that the increase in reported infections is due to increased testing alone.  Thus, the optimistic scenario is unfortunately unlikely.  Given what we’re seeing and what we’re hearing from OHA, the moderate projection seems to be the most likely scenario.  As you see above, even under the moderate projection we could be seeing very large increases over our current case counts and hospitalizations.

But it’s within our power, each of us individually and all of us collectively to keep those increases well below the projection ceiling.  Dr. Dean Sidelinger, our State Epidemiologist, released the following statement, imploring us to be careful and think of others:  This latest model provides us with a sobering reminder that we all need to guard against continued spread, especially as we continue to reopen and the weather gets warmer.  Think hard about your choice of activities, especially as we get close to the Fourth of July holiday. Ask yourself: “How can I reduce my risk and the risk I might pose to people around me?" Do what you can to suppress the virus: Stay 6 feet away from other people. Wear a mask. Avoid large gatherings, and if you are in a group setting -- like a holiday barbeque -- stay outside, keep your distance and use a face covering when you’re not eating. Wash your hands frequently and stay home if you’re sick.

Special Session Day Three

The Legislature met for Day 3 of “The First Special Session of 2020” today.  We were at it all day, not finishing till the early evening.  But in the end, we were able to pass 21 bills:

HB 4202: Makes technical adjustments to the corporate activity tax.

HB 4203:  Provides that peace officer may not use force that limits ability of person to breathe, including but not limited to choke holds.

Where Are Today’s New Cases?

If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive” cases reported today, the overall number of new cases is 250.  Here is the breakdown by county for today:

Benton (4)

Clackamas (17)

Columbia (1)

Deschutes (4)

Douglas (4)

Jackson (5)

Jefferson (6)

Josephine (2)

Lake (3)

Lane (10)

Lincoln (4)

Linn (4)

Malheur (13)

Marion (18)

Morrow (12)

Multnomah (61)

Umatilla (22)

Union (12)

Wasco (3)

Washington (39)

Yamhill (6)

And the Deaths:

Oregon’s 198th COVID-19 death is a 96-year-old woman in Marion County who tested positive on June 18 and died June 25, in her residence. She had underlying conditions.

Oregon’s 199th COVID-19 death is a 90-year-old man in Marion County who tested positive on June 19 and died June 25, in his residence. He had underlying conditions.

Oregon’s 200th COVID-19 death is a 79-year-old woman in Marion County who tested positive on June 18 and died June 24, in her residence. She had underlying conditions.

Oregon’s 201st COVID-19 death is a 90-year-old woman in Union County who tested positive on June 13 and died June 25, at Grande Ronde Hospital. She had underlying conditions.

Oregon’s 202nd COVID-19 death is a 74-year-old woman in Morrow County who tested positive on June 22. Additional information about this COVID-19 related death is still pending.

Additional Graphs NOTE: Because we don’t yet have information on total tests today, only the New Cases graph and the New Hospitalization graph have been updated.

Want to See Past Newsletters?

If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (www.senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there.  Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.

AND FINALLY,

Here again are some resources that you will find useful:

• Multnomah County has a status report on reopening.
• You can view the reopening status of all 36 counties here.
• Here is the OHA’s coronavirus page, with links to a number of resources. 
• Oregon's Office of Emergency Management now has a website for information about COVID-19.
• You can sign up here for regular coronavirus updates from OHA.
• Multnomah County has an excellent website with lots of really important advice and guidance.
• Here’s one from the Governor’s Office.
• The Employment Department has put together a webpage with Q&A’s on a number of employment issues related to COVID-19 (e.g., eligibility for Unemployment Insurance benefits).
• The Oregon Education Department has a new site for COVID-19 updates.
• The Department of Corrections has a COVID tracking website.

If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource.  We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction. 

Best,

Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23

email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-986-1723
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301