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April 6, 2020
Dear Neighbors and Friends:
I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends.
In this newsletter I’ll be giving you some updates from today’s Oregon Health Authority briefing, along with information from our State Economist. You can see the details below.
We did receive an interesting warning from Pat Allen, the OHA Director, paradoxically provoked by two pieces of good news. The first is that our current restrictions do seem to be “flattening the curve,” suggesting that our hospitals be in a relatively good state to deal with the increased numbers that will be coming. The second is not really news for anyone who has been outdoors at all: we’re experiencing a return to nice weather for now. His concern is that people will want to let down their guard, go back to gathering outdoors in groups, return to normal. And at this point in the trajectory of this pandemic, nothing could be more dangerous.
What keeps Director Allen up at night, he told us, are two things: (a) that we’ll run out of Personal Protection Equipment, and (b) that we’ll become impatient and move away from social distancing too quickly, causing a rebound in the numbers. The people at the Emergency Coordination Center, Department of Administrative Services, and the OHA are working hard to get us the PPE we need; as for the second concern, it’s up to all of us to do what we can to make sure those numbers don’t spike.
TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE
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Positive Cases: OHA has reported that 64 additional Oregonians tested positive for COVID-19 yesterday, putting the total at 1,132.
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Total Tests: Today’s reported testing numbers reflect an increase of 1,177 test results from yesterday, bringing the total test results so far to 21,801.
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Ratio: Though the overall numbers are increasing, our ratio of positive results still remains right around 5%. That’s much lower than the national average (currently nearly 19%).
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Deaths: I’m sorry to report that two more Oregonians died from the disease yesterday, bringing the total number of deaths in Oregon to 29.
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Hospitalized: The number of Oregonians who have been hospitalized with symptoms, and who have also tested positive for the disease, is now at 404. This is an increase of 146 from yesterday. You’ll see that reflected in the unusual upward spike in the graph above. This doesn’t not actually reflect a sudden increase in admissions, however. Rather, the numbers were adjusted upwards after errors in the previous hospital reporting system were corrected.
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Other Hospital Information:
- Available ICU Beds: 297
- Other Available Beds: 2,241
- Patients Currently w COVID-19 Symptoms: 400
- COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 82
- Available Ventilators: 733
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Today’s National Numbers:
- Total Tests: 1,917,095 (155,045 up from yesterday)
- Positive Tests: 361,331 (up 29,023 from yesterday)
- Hospitalizations: No Data. Apparently, Oregon is not the only state to have had difficulty getting consistent numbers from hospitals. The national tracking project has put this item on hold for now.
- Deaths: 10,680 (up 1,182 from yesterday)
- These national numbers come from the COVID Tracking Project. You can follow their updated numbers for each state and the nation as a whole here.
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PPE Update:
- Among our most acute PPE shortages in this country is our supply of N95 respirator masks. On the other hand, the Asian version of the mask, the K95 mask, is relatively abundant, but has only now been cleared for use in this country. As a result, the state has just put in an order for a few million K95 masks. However, we’re not alone in placing orders for this equipment right now (it’s every state for itself these days, unfortunately). So it’s not clear how quickly they’ll come.
- I’ve learned that the Portland-based China Policy Council has been working with Oregon's sister province in China, Fujian Province, to solicit a donation of 50,000 FDA-certified masks used in hospitals dentist offices etc. Apparently, the necessary waivers and clearances have been granted, and this donation from our sister province should be arriving soon.
- We’ll be getting a full briefing on PPE tomorrow, and I’ll be able to tell you more then.
The “Surge” Is Coming
In his briefing with us this afternoon, OHA Director Pat Allen let us know that according to the model from the Institute for Disease Modeling that the OHA is using, we should see peak hospitalizations coming this week and next. It appears that thanks to statewide efforts to limit physical contact, our medical infrastructure should be able to handle this surge here in Oregon.
Naturally, many of us are wondering how long this peak will last and what it means for an eventual relaxing of the Stay Home, Save Lives order. Director Allen suggested that the agency will be in a position next week to advise the Governor on a likely timetable. It will all depend on a variety of factors aside from the sheer numbers. We’ll need to feel more sure of answers to the following questions:
- Do we have enough PPE to prevent a rebound in transmission?
- Are those who have recovered from the disease immune from getting it again?
- If so, will that immunity last, or will it be lost as soon as the virus mutates?
- What is our capacity to do massive testing? (the tests themselves, the people to do the testing, and the PPE needed by those doing the testing)
- What is the seasonality of the disease? i.e., will its transmission reduce dramatically when the weather warms?
As the OHA finds science-based answers to these questions and communicates them to us, I’ll be sure to share them with you.
Revenue Forecast Process Underway
May 20 is the date for our next state revenue forecast to be unveiled. Normally, the work on developing that forecast would begin this week or next. Well, as you can imagine, this time the work has already begun. Our state Office of Economic Analysis has been convening its team of advisors and has been at work trying to understand this unique set of circumstances, the plummeting employment rate, and the big reductions in some of our usual revenue sources (e.g., gas tax revenues and lottery games), At the same time, we are expecting the big federal distributions in the CARES Act to help offset some of these losses. But we can’t yet say what effect the new grants and loans to businesses and the enhanced unemployment benefits will have. So it’s all still murky.
I was among a group of legislators to be briefed today by Mark McMullen, our state economist. One thing that’s clear is that we are in a recession. We’re still a few weeks away from having the hard numbers to fully understand exactly where we are, but it’s also clear that the numbers will be bad, and probably shocking.
He and his colleagues will be trying to make three sets of projections: (a) how big the initial downturn will be, i.e., during the period that people are being told to remain at home; (b) how big and how sustained of a “snap back” we can expect once the order is lifted; and (c) what kind of long-term recovery we are looking at: will it be a relatively quick recovery, as is normally the case with recessions or will it be slow and drawn out, as the Great Recession was. How long will it take for supply chains to be restored? How long will it take for employers to get their workers back?
Much will depend on how long this first round of the disease persists and whether or not it returns in the fall. Much will depend on how effective the federal enhanced unemployment benefits and small business assistance are. Much will depend on national and international forces outside of our direct control.
The bounce-back and recovery will likely be better for manufacturers and other industries that will benefit from having access to low-interest rates (e.g., construction), rather than in the hard-hit restaurant, hospitality, and consumer-based industries. There is some concern that food service and hospitality may have difficulty hiring back their low-wage workers very quickly unless they increase their salaries: in many cases, low-wage workers will be earning more from their unemployment benefits and may decide they want to look for other kinds of work.
So, there’s a lot of uncertainty over the long-term, but in the short term we need to prepare for drastically lower state revenues, as high as $2 billion for the remainder of the current 2019-21 biennium.
Hearing from the Supreme Court Chief Justice
Chief Justice Martha Walters was on OPB’s Morning Edition this morning talking about the steps that are being taken to make sure that people have access to justice during the pandemic, while limiting in-person judicial procedures, relaxing deadlines that will be impossible to meet, and reducing crowding in our jails.
She spoke to OPB about her recently-issued order modifying court procedures during the emergency and directing presiding judges to work with their district attorneys and jails to reduce the number of people in jail for non-violent offenses.
You can read about the interview and listen to the program here.
What If You’re Unemployed, and You Don’t Have a Computer or Internet?
With the closure of local unemployment offices as a result of the pandemic, many benefits-seekers and job-seekers are finding it difficult to proceed if they don’t have access to a computer or internet. Some can use their smart phones, but that’s not the easiest way to get at the information needed.
Work Systems Inc. (WSI), our local workforce investment board, has partnered with Comcast in a program to get 300 computers and free home internet access out to people in need. It’s obviously not going to solve the problem, but it’s a good start. Another good example of organizations stepping up in a variety of ways.
You can read about the project here.
WSI has also just announced the awarding of $200,000 to help keep some critical community-based organizations afloat during these difficult times. Read about it here.
Again, If You Need Unemployment Help: WRITE, DON’T CALL
I want to remind you that if you’re having problems filing for unemployment, or have questions about your eligibility, PLEASE don’t try to call the department, even if the computer-generated message tells you to (hopefully, by now that message has been changed). We’ve had constituents writing in and telling us of having to endure endless busy signals and hours of waiting when they’ve tried to connect by phone. The phone system is clearly still overwhelmed. People have had much better experiences when they’ve used the special email address: OED_COVID19_info@oregon.gov. I really recommend it, at least for now.
AND FINALLY,
Here again are some resources that you will find useful:
If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource. We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction.
Best,
 Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23
email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-986-1723
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301
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