2025-27 Oil Forecast
The 2025-27 legislative oil forecast assumes an average North Dakota price of $59 per barrel for the first year of the biennium and then decreases to $57 per barrel for the second year of the biennium. Production is estimated at 1.15 million barrels per day for the first year of the biennium and then decreases to 1.1 million barrels per day for the second year. Based on the legislative forecast, oil and gas extraction and gross production tax collections are projected to total $4.27 billion for the 2025-27 biennium.
The 2025 legislature enacted several changes affecting the allocation of oil and gas taxes. The chart below reflects those changes. A few significant changes are increasing the General Fund allocation from $460.0 million to $500.0 million, adding a new allocation of $21.0 million for hub city debt relief, and decreasing the infrastructure funds allocation from $230.0 million to $160.0 million.
Note: There is no allocation of oil taxes in July 2025 for the 2025-27 biennium, those allocations were applied back to the 2023-25 biennium. The first allocation of oil taxes for the 2025-27 biennium will take place in August 2025.
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