Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, July 15, 2026

• Drier air will begin to filter into much of the state today as the upper-level disturbance influencing our pattern in recent days lifts northward and dissipates.
• Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the sea breezes as they advance inland today, especially across the Big Bend, Northeast Florida, and interior Peninsula where the highest chances of rain exist (30-40% chance of rain).
• Any thunderstorm activity could become locally strong to severe and capable of producing lightning, gusty winds (30-50 mph), and torrential downpours.
• High temperatures this afternoon will reach the lower to middle 90s throughout much of the state.
• Combined with the humidity, feels-like temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 100s for most locations.
• Locally greater sunshine and humidity will bring heat index values near the upper 100s across Collier County and coastal Southeast Florida where a Heat Advisory is in effect for this afternoon.
• Tonight, a few showers and thunderstorms may linger throughout the Peninsula before dissipating shortly after sunset (15-30% chance of rain).
• Lows will fall into the middle 70s to lower 80s across the state.
• A moderate to high risk for rip currents is outlooked for all Panhandle and East-Central Florida beaches today.
• A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Lower Florida Keys this morning for minor saltwater flooding near and during times of high tide.
• From the National Hurricane Center:

• Northeastern Gulf:An area of low pressure is expected to form during the weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Subsequent slow development of this system is possible while it moves slowly northeastward over the northeastern Gulf and or near the southeastern coast of the United States by early next week.

• Formation chance through 48 hours…low… near 0%.
• Formation chance through 7 days…low…20%.

To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

 

 

Morning Situation Report