Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, July 12th, 2026
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 07/12/2026 10:04 AM EDT
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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Another day of wet and unsettled conditions is on tap for North Florida today as an upper-level disturbance and its associated frontal boundary continues to sag southward.
- Well above-normal column moisture from persistent south/southwesterly flow as of late will allow for scattered to widespread showers and storms to develop and spread eastward as the day progresses.
- Current high-resolution guidance indicates the bulk of today’s activity will likely develop around 12-2PM today, although this morning’s radar imagery is already tracking swaths of showers and storms beginning to move onshore from the Gulf into some Big Bend and Western Panhandle regions.
- Like yesterday, an expansive Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather has been outlooked across portions of the Panhandle, Big Bend, and the East Coast of Florida today where the highest chances are of a few locally strong to severe thunderstorms.
- The primary hazards with any activity will be frequent lightning and locally damaging wind gusts (40-60 mph).
- Today’s storms may be very efficient rain-makers given the high atmospheric moisture and multiple sources of lift present (frontal boundary, sea-breezes, outflow boundaries).
- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding has been outlooked for the entirety of North Florida and portions of North-Central Florida today to highlight this risk.
- The southern half of the state is set to be comparatively much drier as a plume of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) continues to spread through the area.
- This will help limit typical shower and storm development as the SAL and background high pressure work to suppress convection.
- Seasonable heat is expected today. High temperatures will range from the lower 90s across North Florida to the middle 90s across South Florida.
- Differing moisture between the northern and southern portions of the state will yield largely uniform heat indexes today in the middle 100s.
- The hottest areas across the state appear to be Northeast Florida, where afternoon showers and storms are unlikely to reach until later in the day, and across Southeast Florida.
- Heat indexes in these areas may reach into the upper 100s, and Heat Advisories are currently in effect to reflect this threat.
- Showers and storms across the state should taper off quickly following sunset, although a few lingering showers and storms are possible tonight across the Western Panhandle (30-60% chance) and across Northeast Florida (15-30%).
- Lows tonight will fall into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
- A moderate risk for rip currents is expected at all Panhandle and most East Coast beaches today. A low risk is outlooked for the West Coast and Southeast Florida.
- According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 105 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 8,094 acres.
- Tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next 7 days.
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