Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, June 24th, 2026

• Shower and thunderstorm activity will largely be confined to the Peninsula today as a post-frontal environment characterized by unseasonably dry and “cool” air will limit rain chances to near-zero across North Florida today.

• Storm activity will be maximized across the Interior Peninsula (40-60% chance) as weak flow will allow sea breeze boundaries from both coasts to push inland and collide over the Central portions of the Peninsula.
• No organized risk of severe weather is expected across any of the Peninsula’s storms today, however as always, any routine summer-time thunderstorms may become locally strong to severe capable of producing frequent lightning and locally damaging gusts (40-60mph).
• Additionally, while no organized risk of flash flooding is currently expected, slow storm-motion under weak flow may lead to isolated instances of nuisance flooding and ponding of water in urban and poor drainage locations.

• While most of North Florida will be dry today, the far Western Panhandle may be an exception to this.

• Model guidance is tracking the possibility of a semi-organized cluster of thunderstorms to develop over the South-Central U.S. and dive southeast later this afternoon/evening.
• As this complex pushes southeast towards our Western Panhandle counties, it will be experiencing an increasingly dry environment courtesy of last night’s frontal passage and thus will likely be weakening.
• The degree of weakening is quite uncertain at this time, with hi-res guidance depicting a range of possible outcomes from a complete dissipation to very-little weakening.
• Regardless, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has outlooked a Marginal (level 1 of 4) to Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding today across our Western Panhandle counties to reflect the conditional risk of heavy rainfall overtop already saturated soils.
• While no organized risk of severe weather is expected with within our Florida Counties from this cluster of storms, these storms may still become locally strong to severe, being especially prone to strong downdrafts containing damaging wind gusts driven by the unseasonably dry column.

• High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s across North Florida, to the lower to middle 90s across the Peninsula.

• A notable gradient in afternoon high feels-like temperatures will be present across the state today, as dry air across North Florida will limit feels-like temperatures to the middle to upper 90s.
• The Peninsula, where seasonably moist air is still present, will see afternoon high feels-like temperatures soar into the lower to middle 100s today.

• Tonight, any lingering showers and thunderstorms across the Peninsula will dissipate or push offshore after dusk (25-40% chance of rain).

• A medium chance of rain  (30-40%) remains across the Western Panhandle tonight, reflecting the preciously discussed possibility of an approaching overnight thunderstorm complex.
• Lows will fall into the 70s to lower 80s statewide tonight.
• A moderate to high risk for rip currents is in effect for most Panhandle beaches today. A low risk persists for all other beaches statewide outside of a stretch of moderate risks across Northeast Florida.
• According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 75 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 31,158 acres.

To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

Morning Situation Report