Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, June 21st, 2026

• Rinse-and-repeat for today’s weather pattern as a largely similar distribution of showers and thunderstorms to yesterday looks to develop across the state.

• Today’s activity across the Florida Panhandle will be widespread (60-80% chance of rain) with a nearly stationary frontal boundary still positioned over the Deep South.
• Contrary to typical summer-time patterns, storm activity will likely peak in the late-morning to early-afternoon hours before the front’s parent upper-level trough begins pulling away from the state later this afternoon, reducing convective coverage.
• Current radar imagery is already tracking scattered semi-organized clusters of eastward-moving thunderstorms across portions of the Western and Central Panhandle this morning.
• This activity will continue to spread eastward this morning and expand in coverage and intensity as daytime heating increases.
• Forecast rainfall accumulations across the Panhandle are generally between 1-2”, however, given highly sensitive soils due to last week’s flash floodings, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is current outlooked across the entire Florida Panhandle.
• A more seasonable pattern of afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Florida Peninsula.
• Prevailing Southwesterly/Westerly flow will focus activity to the eastern half of the Peninsula this afternoon, where a medium chance (40-70%) of rain is expected.
• Although there is no organized risk for severe weather with any of today’s thunderstorm activity, a few locally strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out with frequent lightning and gusty winds (30-50 mph) being the primary hazards.

• Early-morning cloud coverage and showers and storms will limit daytime high temperatures across North Florida to the upper 80s today.

• Elsewhere across the Peninsula, afternoon high temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 90s.
• Combined with the humidity, afternoon feels-like temperatures will reach the lower to middle 100-degrees throughout the Peninsula, though they are expected to remain just below heat advisory criteria.

• Shower and thunderstorm activity will quickly dissipate after sunset today, with only and isolated chance (15-30%) chance for a lingering thunderstorm or two across the I-95 Corridor and across North Florida.

• All activity should dissipate or move offshore by midnight.
• Lows will fall into the middle 70s to lower 80s statewide, bringing little relief from the daytime heat.
• A moderate to high risk for rip currents is in effect for all Panhandle beaches. Diminishing surface flow yields a low risk for rip currents for all other Florida beaches.
• According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 43 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 25,908 acres.

To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

Morning Situation Report