Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, June 16th, 2026

Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 06/16/2026 09:55 AM EDT

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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
  • Another unsettled day is expected throughout North Florida as a nearly stationary frontal boundary north of the region allows ample tropical moisture to pool across the area.
  • This feature, combined with a passing upper-level disturbance, will aid in rounds of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms spreading west to east along the I-10 corridor today (55-85% chance of rain).
  • The greatest coverage in rainfall is expected across the Panhandle and Big Bend where a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked.
    • Repeated rounds of locally heavy downpours on saturated soils may lead to instances of flooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor drainage locations. Isolated instances of flash flooding cannot be ruled out.
  • A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather is also outlooked across all North Florida today; Frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-60 mph), and a brief isolated tornado are the primary hazards.
  • Slow-moving sea breeze showers and storms will develop this afternoon along the I-95 corridor (40-60% chance of rain); A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across coastal Southeast Florida for isolated instances of urban flooding and ponding of water.
  • Rainfall amounts are expected to be highest across the Panhandle and Big Bend today, generally amounting to near 1-2” for most locations. Locally higher amounts upwards of 3-5” cannot be ruled out.
  • Highs will struggle to climb out of the middle to upper 80s across the Panhandle and Big Bend due to cloud cover and rainfall. Highs will reach into the lower to middle 90s elsewhere statewide.
  • Peak afternoon heat indices will top out in the lower to middle 100s throughout the Peninsula; A Heat Advisory is in effect until 6 PM EDT this afternoon for the Miami metro region.
  • Tonight, the stalled frontal boundary over the Southeast U.S. will encourage additional rounds of showers and embedded storms across North Florida (60-80% chance of rain).
  • Any lingering activity along the I-95 corridor will dissipate or move offshore by midnight (15-30% chance of rain).
  • Lows will fall into the 70s to lower 80s statewide overnight.
  • A moderate risk for rip currents is expected for all Panhandle, Space Coast, Treasure Coast, and Sun Coast beaches today. A local high risk exists for Gulf County beaches.
  • A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for Mainland Monroe County for isolated minor saltwater flooding near and during times of high tide this afternoon.
  • From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
    • Northwestern Gulf: A broad area of low pressure located over south Texas is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  The system is forecast to move northeastward along the Texas coast and could emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America later today or tonight.  Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm late today or on Wednesday, especially if the system moves far enough offshore. This system poses no direct threat to Florida. However, periods of heavy rainfall will continue daily across portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend this week which may lead to isolated instances of flash, urban, and river flooding.
      • Formation chance through 48 hours…medium… 60%
      • Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60%

 

To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

Morning Situation Report