Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, June 15th.2026

• A frontal boundary draped across the Southeast U.S., combined with the afternoon sea breezes, will aid in a bit higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms along and north of the I-10 corridor today (75-90% chance of rain).
• The West and East Coast sea breezes will collide near the I-95 corridor this afternoon where additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected (50-75% chance of rain).
• Any thunderstorm activity today could become locally strong to severe and capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-50 mph), and locally heavy downpours.
• A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been outlooked along the I-10 and I-95 corridors where repeated rounds of heavy rainfall may lead to flooding and ponding of water, especially in the more susceptible urban and poor-drainage locations.
• Rainfall totals will generally amount to 1-2” for most locations, however locally higher amounts upwards of 3-4” cannot be ruled out.
• High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to middle 90s statewide. With increasing humidity, afternoon feels-like temperatures will reach near or above 100-degrees throughout much of the state.
• The highest heat indices are expected across Northeast Florida and along the I-95 corridor (103 to 108-degrees).
• A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Miami metro region this afternoon.
• Tonight, the frontal boundary over the Southeast U.S. will encourage additional rounds of showers and embedded storms across the western Panhandle (40-60% chance of rain).
• Any lingering activity along the I-10 and I-95 corridors will dissipate or move offshore by midnight (35-55% chance of rain).
• Lows will fall into the 70s to lower 80s statewide overnight.
• A moderate to high risk for rip currents is expected for all Panhandle beaches. Treasure Coast and Space Coast beaches can also expect a moderate risk.
• A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for coastal Collier County, Mainland Monroe County, and the Lower Florida Keys for isolated minor saltwater flooding near and during times of high tide this afternoon.
• From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
• Northwestern Gulf: A broad area of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development is not expected during the next day or so while the low remains inland and drifts generally northward over northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. The system is then forecast to move northeastward and could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, where environmental conditions may support some development around midweek. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall, flash flooding and gusty winds are possible across portions of eastern and southern Texas and Louisiana this week.
• Formation chance through 48 hours…low… 20%.
• Formation chance through 7 days…low…30%.

To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

Morning Situation Report