Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, May 31st, 2026.
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 05/31/2026 10:26 AM EDT
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EOC Activation Level: Level 2
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A frontal boundary currently located over Central GA will slowly sag southward towards the FL state line today. This will provide a source of focused lift for shower and thunderstorms development, primarily over the Panhandle and Northeast FL regions today and tonight.
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Storm activity will initiate in the late morning to early afternoon hours and persist through the evening across Northern Florida.
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Coverage of today’s activity in North FL will be scattered to widespread (50-80% chance of rain), aided by the very moist air mass overtop.
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Elsewhere in the state, the Eastern half of the peninsula will be another focus for late afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity.
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Central and Eastern Florida carries a medium chance (40-60%) for rain today, whereas the West Coast and Coastal Panhandle regions carry a low (10-20%) chance for rain.
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Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to linger well past sunset tonight across inland North Florida (40-60% chance) as the front continues its southward march tonight.
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A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out elsewhere across coastal peninsula location overnight as well (20-40% chance of rain).
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While no organized risk of severe weather is expected with any of today’s thunderstorm activity, a few locally strong storms cannot be ruled out, capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds (40-50 mph).
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A Marginal (level 1 of 4) to Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for Flash Flooding is outlooked across much of North Florida today - a region that has already seen multiple inches of rain and isolated instances of flash flooding over the past few days. Any areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy downpours or slow-moving/training thunderstorms could experience flooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor-drainage locations.
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Forecast rainfall amounts are expected to remain around 1-2” for most locations, though locally higher amounts upwards of 3-5” cannot be ruled out.
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High temperatures will remain mostly in the 80s statewide today with partly to mostly cloudy skies and plentiful rainfall. However, peeks of sunshine may bring temperatures into the lower 90s across the interior Peninsula.
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Hot and muggy conditions are expected statewide regardless as humidity increases. Feels-like temperatures will approach the upper 90s throughout Central and South Florida this afternoon. A few locations may briefly reach or exceed 100 degrees this afternoon.
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Low temperatures will fall into the 70s to lower 80s throughout the state.
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Areas of patchy fog may develop in the Western Panhandle overnight and towards daybreak on Monday.
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A high risk of rip currents is expected for most Panhandle beaches. A moderate risk for rip currents is in effect for much of the Northeast/East-Central coastlines.
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According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 41 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 14749 acres.
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