Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, May 29th, 2026
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 05/29/2026 10:12 AM EDT
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EOC Activation Level: Level 2
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The state of Florida is positioned between a large upper-level disturbance over the Northeast U.S. that is diving southeastward over the open Atlantic and a weak ridge axis to the south over the Western Caribbean. The resulting surface flow between these two features will generally be southwesterly to westerly across the state.
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This flow regime will favor inland Panhandle locations and the East Coast for today’s shower and thunderstorm activity.
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With the deeply moist tropical airmass still firmly overtop the state, there is a high (50-80%) chance of showers and storms for these locations.
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The East Coast is likely to see the greatest coverage and intensity of activity today as westerly flow will push the West Coast sea breeze inland where it may collide with the pinned East Coast sea breeze and promote enhanced thunderstorm growth.
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A few locally strong storms cannot be ruled out, capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds (40-50 mph). Coastal Panhandle, West Coast, and Florida Keys locations will see the lowest chances of rain today (<30%).
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Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to linger well past sunset tonight across North-Central Florida and the East Coast before eventually waning or pushing offshore around midnight (40-60% chance of rain).
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A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across the Western Panhandle, a region that has already seen multiple inches of rain and isolated instances of flash flooding over the past few days, and across Northeast Florida corridor today.
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Any areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy downpours or training thunderstorms could experience flooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor-drainage locations.
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Forecast rainfall amounts are expected to remain around 1-2” for most locations, though locally higher amounts upwards of 3-5” cannot be ruled out.
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High temperatures will remain in the upper 80 to lower 90s statewide today with partly to mostly cloudy skies and plentiful rainfall.
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Hot and muggy conditions are expected statewide regardless as high humidity values remain. Feels-like temperatures will approach the middle to upper 90s throughout much of the state, with a few isolated locations likely approaching or exceeding 100 degrees.
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Low temperatures will fall into the 70s to lower 80s throughout the state.
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Areas of patchy fog may develop along the I-10 corridor overnight and towards daybreak on Friday, some of which could become locally dense.
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A moderate to high risk of rip currents is expected for East Coast and Panhandle beaches.
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According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 57 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 17900 acres.
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